1/2. There is nowhere to retreat or no turning back for Ethiopia at this stage, expect proceeding with completion of the final phase of the GERD & start filling the dam with or without agreement as the Ethiopian FM has insisted though such unilateral action might draw criticism.
2/2. Al-Sisi has two options. Accept the inevitable and try to secure concession OR opt for not signing any legally binding agreement (Sudan in this case will take same stand). This will leave the contest open-ended enabling Egypt to take up the issue at convenient time in future
Leaving aside the gov’ts attempt to promote itself as agent of change striving to lay foundation for a democratic nation treating all ethnic groups on equal terms, two main groups namely, Oromo activists & Amhara nationalists stand opposite on the gov’t’s nature & intension. 1/6
The Oromo activists opposed to the gov’t consider it a neo-Neftegna regime that hijacked the Oromo struggle and hence working against the Oromo interest, while 2/6
while the Amhara nationalists are adamant that the change at the end of the day is replacement of a Tigray domination by an Oromo one (ተረኝነት) and hence the gov’t working actively against the Amara interest. These contradictory perceptions raise series of questions. 3/6
If the killing of #HaacaaluuHundeessaa was intended to plunge the country into chaos and inter-ethnic clashes leading to bloodshed, limited success has been achieved given the lives lost and properties destroyed while the worst scenario fortunately has been aborted. 1/6
Tension, however, remains high (confrontations continue on social media) and this incident could be one of serious setbacks Dr Abiy had to face since coming to power. Consequently, vocal extremist voices on all sides trying to take center stage which is alarming 2/6
The least we need right now is a call for revenge and confrontation. It is not easy but time to pause and reflect. While all actors are responsible for their action/ inaction, the current gov’t in general & Dr Abiy in particular shoulder special duties and responsibilities. 3/6