Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #GERD

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Big day for Nile Basin rains today. The image below [@meteoblue] shows rain at 6pm over the #HornOfAfrica.

The big storm on left is over South Sudan, while the smaller ones on the right are over the Ethiopia Highlands.

Today's Horn, #NorthAfrica & #MiddleEast forecasts follow. Image
Today's big picture shows a Western Sahara plume in the process of creating more significant storms in central Europe. Bottom left you can see today's #ArabianStorms. Image
These three images show the winds which are bringing the rains to Africa across the Indian Ocean. The first shows the view as of this morning, the 2nd a forecast for the 7th day and the last one the forecast for the 16th day.

Today's winds were strong. ImageImageImage
Read 26 tweets
Rain storms rising in the Ethiopian highlands this afternoon via @zoom_earth.

Today's #NorthAfrica #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica rainfall forecasts follow.
The big picture for today shows a broad swathe of the North Western Hemisphere. Here in Europe we have rainclouds over most of Western Europe now. And more wet weather heading in from the West.

In the East the monsoon is still strengthening and we have #ArabianStorms yet again.
This morning we had a lovely clear view of the #HornOfAfrica from space courtesy of @NASA. The big cloud mass bottom right is mostly over Kenya.
Read 20 tweets
As Ethiopians vote today in their first open contested election here below we can see the rainstorm forming in the morning.

Today's #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
In the big picture today we can see storms over Europe top left and monsoon storms over South East Asia bottom left, as well as yet another day of #ArabianStorms beginning on the Red Sea.

The monsoon storms over SEA provide the moisture which powers the rains over Ethiopia.
In this satellite image from this morning we can see visible traces of the water arriving across the Indian Ocean.
Read 15 tweets
Tomorrow Ethiopia will go to the polls. #GERD, the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a project announced back in 2011 is a key election issue. The dam filling is about to begin.

This image shows Lake Tana, where the #Abbay river begins.

Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
Zooming out to show North Ethiopia this morning we can now see Tigray, where a horrific war began in November 2020, another key issue in this election.
Zooming out still further we can now see all of the ancient nation of Ethiopia. At the top right (the triangle bordered by cloud, we can see the northern end of the great rift where the Indian and African tectonic plates are slowly pulling away from each other.
Read 22 tweets
See four satellite images taken today of major water transport events from @NASA Modis below.
1. Monsoon winds leaving India
2. Monsoon winds arriving Africa
3. Closeup of the #HornOfAfrica
4. The latest WMA plume.

Today's #Africa and #Middle East rainfall forecasts follow.
Two views of today's heavy rainfall in the Nile Basin and along the Red Sea Coast.
A big picture view from the Atlantic to the Bay of Bengal. It is extraordinary how long the Leviathan storm has been stationary in the middle of the picture near the Black Sea. It started in late May!
Read 21 tweets
Satellite images of the monsoon winds path to the #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast in three pictures.
1. The source... Bay of Bengal
2. The voyage.... The Arabian Sea
3. Landfall

Today's rainfall forecasts for the wider area follow.
The big picture this evening.

Europe is stormy in the East and the West.

#ArabianStorms have returned to a less unusual format.

Big Rains continue in the Nile Basin.

And night has fallen on the Indian monsoon.
Four North Africa 10-Day rainfall forecasts for today June 18th. Forecasts for the West Africa Monsoon are continuing to move north particularly in the West.
Read 18 tweets
Unusual June rains continue in Saudi Arabia today, and for the first time since April rain fell throughout the night.

Today's #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow. [SubThread - Mecca rains.]
Satellite Images arranged from East to West, the direction of tropical moisture movement and Monsoon Winds.
North African 10-Day rainfall forecasts as of June 17th. Rains are extending north of the 15th parallel in all forecasts now.
Read 15 tweets
It's all set for another big day over the #HornofAfrica today. This big picture view contains some measurements of the monsoon wind plumes which are from Myanmar and India to the Horn.

Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica the Horn and the #MiddleEast follow:
And while its still early, 2.30pm local time, we already have #ArbaianStorms lighting up in Saudi Arabia.
Here's a view of the storms after sunset last night from 7pm to 10pm. At present the storms over Ethiopia appear to die down by midnight. But those further West continue through the night.
Read 16 tweets
There was a second day of big rains over the horn today. In this image on the right hand side you can see the incoming water baring winds from across the Arabian Sea from the Indian Monsoon.

Today's #HornOfAfrica #NorthAfrica & #MiddleEast forecasts follow:
Here's a wider angle view. The water bearing mid-altitude jets provide much of the moisture that fuels the West African Monsoon, and its East African extension.
Three 10-day (+ one 12-day) accumulated rainfall forecasts for North Africa for June 15th from the GFS, CMC and KMA weather models.
Read 18 tweets
I have gotten quite a bit of questions about an outrageous study that was circulated by the press recently written by @essamheggy, which is about to be published.
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.108…

Surprisingly, this is being challenged by #Egyptian researchers and myself....

1/3
Just to give you a flavor of about how outrageous this is:

The 31 BCM deficit claimed by the study doesn’t make a sense given how it is derived.

➡️The study claims that there is about 18.5 Billion Cubic Meter (BCM) seepage loss at #GERD site with no scientific support.😲

2/3
➡️Outrageously claim Evaporation loss at #GERD could be as high as 17.5 BCM!

This is when net loss at #GERD is ~1.7 BCM based on scientific studies on reported (Wheeler et al., 2020, NatureCom)

This is about a TEN times exaggeration from a "scientist" (17.5 = 1.7)

Stay tuned.
Read 4 tweets
Europe has cleared out, the Western Sahara plume has finally slowed down to a crawl and the Leviathan low (as I call it remains in place over the Black Sea. Also there is an interesting burst of activity in the Horn of Africa.

Today's #NorthAfrica & #MiddleEast forecasts follow.
As you can see in this animation there was some intense convection over the the #Ethiopian highlands and Sudan today, certainly more than we have seen for a fair few days.
Here we see a wider angle view of today' convection over the horn before sunset. This storm is continuing strongly into the night. Question of the day is, is this signalling the beginning of the big rainy season for the horn.
Read 20 tweets
Today's #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #ArabianStorms rainfall forecasts follow.

I was wondering if this might happen. With all the moisture streaming along the North African coast and north east from central Africa. Also some forecasts had this indicated as a possibility.
Admittedly the rain is very light. But it is June and close to Solstice, the hottest month in this part of the world. Here we see the broader picture. The #EuropeBigWet is continuing in a fairly stable pattern for another 48 hours still.
Here's a close up of the North Western quadrant with some big storms bursting to life near the Morocco/Algeria border.
Read 23 tweets
Today's #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.

The images below from @NASA below show 3 north-south cross sections of the Sahara taken this morning.
1. Morocco to Ivory Coast
2. Algeria to Nigeria & DRC
3. Levant to Uganda.
An updated precipitable water animation - 10 Days - for the Sahara. The transit of water in a north easterly direction is finally starting to slow down, albeit not just yet.
10-day rainfall forecasts from four models for North Africa.
Read 21 tweets
Today's #NorthAfrica and #HornOfAfrica forecasts follow.

Below a satellite picture taken this morning of the #HornOfAfrica.

#Ethiopia #Somaliland #Somalia
The wider region this evening.

More #ArabianStorms and #Abbay convection. The Atlantic continues to be active now looks set to deliver a surprise summer storm early next week. [See #EuropeBigWet for that coverage.]
This close up shows more Atlantic moisture pouring into North Africa over Morroco and Western Sahara. You can also see a substantial dust cloud is now forming which will be helping to suppress Atlantic cyclones.
Read 16 tweets
Today's #NorthAfrica and #HornOfAfrica forecasts follow.

Below a satellite picture this morning with all the Nile basins including the #Abbay/#BlueNile in #Ethiopia (where it passes through the #GERD) + White Nile, #Sudan, #SouthSudan, #Uganda & the states around Lake Victoria.
10 day rainfall forecasts from the CMC, KMA, GFS and ECMWF models for June 9th through 19th.
A few animations. This one is connected to the separate tweet threads about #EuropeBigWet, which appear to be being driven by Jets of wet air coming off the Atlantic and crossing the Sahara into Europe.

This animation shows a jet crossing Libya and pumping water into Georgia.
Read 17 tweets
Today's forecasts for #NorthAfrica, and the #HornOfAfrica follow.

This 1st image shows the monsoon spreading westwards across the Bay of Bengal. I think it is relevant to the rains in Africa but you will need to wait till the final tweet to see how.

#Ethiopia #Sudan #GERD #Nile
The strength of the West African Monsoon continues to grow as you can see in the animation above. During the current active period (See also #EuropeBigWet) the Sahara is forecast to reach a point where there is water over most of the great desert. Here are 10d rainfall forecasts.
Read 21 tweets
This thread needs some additional context lest it be interpreted as suggesting that #KelloMedia @KelloMedia is an unreliable source.

But deep fakes are a problem and authenticating recordings and videos in this day and age is a significant problem.
This recording stands out because:
a) its explosive nature and
b) because of its wide dissemination and the implications that come from it in relation to the fairness of the election.
c) because it was explicitly denied by the Prime Minister.
The also addresses two wider issues, the first of which relates to elections everywhere, and the second which relates to the specific conditions of this election.

In the CPJ safety handbook for journalists misinformation is directly addressed. cpj.org/2021/06/ethiop…
Read 36 tweets
Today's #Sahara & #HornOfAfrica rainfall forecasts follow.

It is now two weeks till the first open democratic #Ethiopian election.
To open here's a high resolution satellite image of the Nile Basin from Cairo to Lake Victoria including Eastern Ethiopia where the #GERD dam is located, and where the Blue Nile - source of much of the Nile's flow - originates in Lake Tana (the heart shaped lake).
We will zoom in on the #HornOfAfrica starting with the wider picture. On the left side of this image you can see a #WesternSahara water transport event which is significantly impacting weather conditions in Europe. (See more in the attached thread )
Read 17 tweets
Well its hard to know where to begin with today's #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica rainfall forecasts.

The action is now further north, and west. Here we see the consequences of the first phase of what appears to be becoming a continuous #WesternSaharaPlume.
An bit of a battle us underway between a high pressure system over Northern Erope and the plume which is entering at the bottom left in this image of Jetstream level 250Hpa 11km high winds.
While the model forecasts remain optimistic that an orderly jetstream may eventually appear, so far this has not happened. And in the meantime these winds are picking up moisture in the tropics and taking it in large quantities to places where its not expected.
Read 27 tweets
A big day for #WestAfricaMonsoon observation.

A full plume event is becoming obvious in central & eastern Europe + Russia. We also have thunderstorms over the Red Sea, and a low circulation heading towards a collision with water vapour over Israel.

Today's forecasts follow.
Visually speaking this is the most extraordinary looking satellite observation of the day.

Now into its sixth day the #EastAfricaWaterPlume has been generating lots of rain over the Red Sea, both last night and today, & right now just off the coast of Jeddah. @Arab_Storms
Here we see a wider view while it is not that obvious in this view, the stream of water vapour heading up the Western Sahara coast is running fast and hot. Later I will post an initial post tracking its impact in Europe. But for now its worth looking closer at North Africa.
Read 27 tweets
With Cyclone #Yaas soaking up all the moisture east of the #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica it was a relatively calm day. Albeit not without another intense set of storms along the Red Sea Coast in the Jinzan mountains.

Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
The days began relatively quiet on the #WestAfricanMonsoon front thanks to Cyclone #Yaas. This image shows a strip from the Libyan Coast across the Sahara down to the Congo.
And it remained fairly quiet over the great forests of equatorial Africa today. But further West over the Ivory Coast and the West Sahara the #WestAfricaWaterPlume continued to pump water vapour across the Sahara into Europe.
Read 16 tweets
Cyclone #Yaas is just 2 days away from landfall on the North Eastern Indian Coast in the Odisha and once onshore is forecast pass over the ancient city of Jaipur.


Today's #MiddleEast #Sahara and #HornOfAfrica forecasts follow.
We have a stunningly clear image of the #NileBasin this morning from @NASA Modis from Cairo to Lake Victoria showing the impact of the April and May rains on the landscape.
In today's 10-Day North Africa rain forecasts the European @ECMWF model remains unconvinced about the impact of #WestAfricaWaterPlumes on the Sahara, which as you will soon see are once again having a spectacular impact on European weather.
Read 18 tweets
We have another large #ArabianStorm which was not anticipated by the global weather models. And like those before it, it is fueled by the #WestAfricaMonsoon and a #WestAfricaWaterPlume. This time across the Red Sea in the vicinity of #Makkah.

Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
This animation shows the current state of a weather event that has been a few days in coming. #ArabianStorms

@Arab_Storms
The origin of this event is very similar to that which caused several days of extremely severe thunderstorms in #Oman earlier in the month. This animation is from May 18th shortly after it first appeared in the @zoom_earth satellite imagery.
Read 15 tweets
The eyes of the world are turned towards the Holy Land on the 10th day of a horrific conflict between the Govt. of Benjamin Netanyahu and the Hamas Govt. in Gaza.

Today's rainfall forecasts for the #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica follow.
This image shows a larger picture of the region, from Cairo to Kampala the full Nile Basin. Source: @NASA Modis.
The 10-day forecasts for North Africa are showing increasing amounts of rain over the Western end of the Sahara Desert. The exception being the @ECMWF model which maintains its disbelief in the concept of #DesertRain.
Read 17 tweets

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