Trump's big political problem right now is that he talks about "law and order," often with all-caps tweets, but he isn't delivering any. He's running like a challenger, not an incumbent. Even people who agree with him aren't excited by this "hapless but loud bystander" routine.
The attack on America currently under way by the Left is designed to make normal people feel guilty, frightened, isolated, and helpless. In accordance with the four-stage subversion process, Dems will offer them "normalization" in exchange for power.
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It's an aggressive agenda, and it can't be met by playing pure defense or complaining about how unfair and dangerous it is. Republicans always lose when they act like they're waiting for media referees to appear on the field and start throwing flags on the other team.
One of the longstanding complaints against the GOP Establishment - one of the reasons Trump won in 2016 - is that Republicans take all the heat for supporting policies despised by the Left, but they don't actually DELIVER anything. They pay full price but get nothing substantial.
Trump is slipping into the same dangerous doldrums. He's vilified as a "dictator" but all he does is talk, and rarely in a way that rallies support for a coherent policy agenda. We have the paradox of the "Orange Hitler" who gives no orders. He talks offense but plays defense.
One big reason for Trump's victory was the sense that he was ready to fight on cultural issues. He understood their importance more than his rivals. Conservative constituencies saw a candidate who finally understood their values were under attack and would fight back.
How's that cultural fight going now? All you see is language being mutilated, statues being vandalized, big corporations kneeling to left-wing radicals, culture being erased. No conservative could possibly believe the very hot Culture War is going their way right now.
Some of these things are beyond the president's direct control, and there is an argument that acting aggressively against the lawless shock troops of the Left would only make things worse for Trump, giving them the "Orange Hitler is oppressing us!" video clips they want.
But when Trump's political approach is to talk entirely about "law and order" without delivering any - coming hard on the heels of a pandemic that wrecked his big advantage on the economy - it's no surprise that his support would grow very soft in the polls.
There's still time in the campaign, and both Trump's strategy and events could reverse the slump. His most ardent supporters would say he's keeping his powder dry until the right moment to open fire. He doesn't really give that impression, but maybe so.
I devoutly hope Trump's campaign team isn't assuming that the combination of Biden's obvious liabilities plus some wave of indictments against RussiaGate plotters, possibly including Biden himself, is going to deliver an election win. That's playing solid defense, not offense.
Not very much of the general electorate is waiting with bated breath to see if Trump can prevail over his tormentors from four years ago and win an argument about how swampy D.C. is. They're waiting for a look at the next 4 years, not the definitive account of 2016 shenanigans.
I also very much hope nobody really believes the polls are entirely wrong, purely a creation of media bias, and a huge silent majority would hand Trump a stunning victory if the election was held today. A look at the down-ballot polls should disabuse anyone of that notion.
The election will NOT be held today, and there probably IS a sizable "shy vote," but another word for "shy" in this context is INTIMIDATED. Trump will not win because energized normal people can't wait to stick a thumb in the eye of the militant Left at the ballot box.
That four-step process of ideological subversion WORKS. It's a sound strategy and the Left has poured decades of effort into implementing it. A lot of moderate voters right now are thinking the Democrat offer of normalization sounds like the best deal they can hope for.
That is Trump's challenge: to SELL something. Offer a better deal than the Democrats offering to call off the dogs if the American people surrender to their "grievances." Give them a reason to think it's worth taking another four years of attacks from lefty activists and media.
It's not always easy for committed voters or pundits to grasp what the news looks like to the average Joe. Make that effort and understand all Joe sees right now is Trump on defense, day after day, fending off the latest wave of heated criticism, with little to show for it.
Things were very different before the one-two punch of pandemic and riots wrecked much of what Trump planned to run on, but right now it's all doom and ruins, and all Joe hears is Trump trying to explain why he's not responsible for it. Biden's basically invisible.
Winning an election is very different from winning a "not guilty" verdict in the court of public opinion. Yes, "law and order" would be nice and most of America wants it. Trump and the GOP need to show how they plan to deliver it. The Dems DO have a coherent sales pitch. /end
