Thread by @bopinion

This alarming chart illustrates the poor job the U.S. has done in containing Covid-19 compared to the European Union, a bigger region of independent countries that suffered an earlier outbreak.

What is America doing wrong? trib.al/LJcqBBi

🇺🇸📈A failure to ramp up testing let the virus spread far and wide in the U.S.

Instead of coordinating a coherent national response, President Trump has downplayed the threat of the infection and left decisions to insufficiently supported states trib.al/LJcqBBi

Amid all of this, one particular difference stands out between the American and European approaches.

Many states were happy to reopen after simply "bending the curve" — that is, slowing upward growth and ensuring spare hospital capacity trib.al/LJcqBBi

States expanded economic activity while cases were at an elevated plateau with lots of ongoing transmissions.

In contrast, Europe mostly waited to reopen until it crushed the curve or reached its far slope, with dramatic reductions in the viral spread trib.al/LJcqBBi

🇮🇹Italy is an exception, having opened with a comparatively high case count.

However, its average daily count was below 20 cases per million within a week of its limited opening, a metric none of the most troubled states have managed since early April trib.al/LJcqBBi

So why is low incidence so crucial to successful reopening? Simple math⬇️

More virus in a community means more opportunities for it to spread. It makes every precaution individuals and officials take a bit less effective, and every activity riskier trib.al/LJcqBBi

This doesn't necessarily translate to immediate outbreaks.

But as activity expands to include things such as indoor service at bars, a high base level of infection becomes increasingly likely to cause problems trib.al/LJcqBBi

Persistently high case levels amid a reopening make it far more challenging to identify and isolate a high percentage of infected individuals.

At a certain point, there are too many cases and contacts to have a hope of tracing them trib.al/LJcqBBi

The gap with Europe argues for more restraint from fast-opening states going forward. Luckily, some governors are taking the cue.

In Texas, taverns are closing. North Carolina has also frozen its reopening efforts, as have Utah and Nevada
trib.al/LJcqBBi

New York and New Jersey both waited until their steep curves were tamed before starting reopening efforts.

Now, even as activities resume in both states, new cases have slowed to a trickle trib.al/LJcqBBi

The chart tells the tale: Declaring victory too close to the top of the curve appears to be an excellent way to return to new heights trib.al/LJcqBBi