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I note the frequent references on Twitter to Sweden's response to COVID with a light lockdown. There are a few issues here. Swedes, being a sensible bunch, took preventative action. But deaths are the highest in the Scandi region and are still rising...
They are still seeing case rises versus their comps...
And deaths are still rising...
Additionally, there is talk of the herd immunity model in Sweden, when in fact they have the low rates of antibodies...
There is also chatter that because they didn't shut down it was better for their economy and was therefore sensible. YoY GDP is the largest fall in history...because of the evasive action of Swedish people.
So, it seems you are fucked if you close and fucked if you don't.

Welcome to the pandemic.
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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
I think we are probably at the end of the "Hope" phase and we will now transition to the "Insolvency" phase, for those familiar with my work. Writing GMI over the weekend so I will likely have full clarity after going through my analysis.

1/
Just so I can show in the shortest time what the issues will be, here is the daily chart of AT&T (the worlds biggest corporate debtor).
And here is the monthly chart...
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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
The three most interesting charts, right here, right now are:

1. US 10 year bond yields.
2. US 5 yr bond yields
3. US 2 year bond yields
Read 4 tweets
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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
Take your politics out of COVID 19 and instead think of cases>hospitalizations>beds>ICU>Deaths.

It's essentially the exact same metrics as a sales or marketing funnel.

Total traffic is the largest driver and after that it's the conversion rates of the other parts of the funnel
The exact same is true in COVID.

Houston is the best example of the second wave problems of re-opening before the R0 was below 1 (where infection rates dwindle such as NYC).

The sales funnel - paid marketing is consistent and high. Here we can see tests are high but stable.
But the conversion to the next part of the funnel is highly effective. Sales are outperforming the marketing spend. Positive tests as a % are rising. Your sales funnel is becoming more effective and is a HUGE positive for any Saas business. This means you are getting + returns.
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