No, it's not a bubble in tech stocks. We are less than 1 standard deviation from the trend. You can see what a bubble looks like in the late 1990's when we exploded out of the decade long log regression channel to be multiple SD's from trend.

Nothing to see, move on... 1/ Also, "But P/E ratio's are at bubble valuations!" narrative doesnt take into account the fact the during debasement the P rises (due to debasement) more than E (anchored by GDP growth in general). If debasement is 11% and GDP is 2% trend over same period then P/E rises by 9% p.a

Crypto is still being adopted at twice the speed on the internet from 5m IP addresses vs 5m wallets (very like for like). 1/ And its on its way to 4 billion by 2030...

Let's talk about the Crypto Waiting Room... many key part of the crypto ecosystem are in the waiting room ready to launch. Let's look at a few (you will have yours too...)

Total3 - Ex- BTC and ETH...ready to launch from the waiting room. 1/ ... OTHERS (Outside of Top 10... purest form of Alts season where all shit rises). Still in the waiting room but longer to launch...

This too shall pass...

Crypto is still feeling the tightening in liquidity from the stronger dollar and higher rates in Q4 2024. That is almost done and financial conditions are easing fast and M2 is headed back to new highs. This is just a regular correction... 1/ We had the exact same correction in 2017 caused by the same reaction to Trump policies (higher dollar and higher rates which then reversed). 2/

We are very close to being in the Last Chance to Add Zone in crypto. The next step should be the memes breaking out and after that there is nothing to do but wait to take lifestyle chips off the table.

Here is $DOGE leading the breakout... 1/ Here is $WIF about to break out...

These are the three most important charts in Global Macro, along with Crypto - from this months Global Macro Investor publication:

1. Demographics are destiny. GDP slows over time as size of labour force shrinks. 2. Government Debt to GDP ratio is just a function of the working population. It offsets the weak growth and pays for the compunding interests on the debts. This is THE most important chart in macro.

With $BTC well over $70k... Im looking for the final confirmations from some others. $SOL over $185... 1/ $SUI is breaking its consolidation now and should be headed to new ATH's

$SUI is actiing like it is going to be one of the key Chosen Ones of the major new chains, if not THE Chosen One...

The chart has broken out of the inverse head and shoulders, which is an important first step. 1/ But more importantly, it has broen the downtrend vs $SOL (and all the top 20 tokens). Its relative strength in a sideways market is worth paying attention to.

Sui $SUI is the groundbreaking ultra-fast L1, super efficient, full blockchain ecosystem that came out of Meta's Diem project.

The idea is that it is built for the scale of 4 billion people... i.e turning Web2 > Web3 1/ I have been looking for signs of the next big L1 mover by looking at the relative charts of many compared to each other and have mentioned this methodology on many podcasts....

Macro Summer in beginning to take hold and should last at least for the rest of 2024 and into 2025.

2 yr yields have formed a large top with a potential objective to 2.5% 1/ The NDX has probably completed it's healthy correction...

A bit of shade being thrown about the Banana Zone. Let me clarify...

Macro Summer and Fall are driven by the global liquidity cycle that exhibits clear cyclicality since 2008. Why since 2008? Well, back then the worlds all reset their interest payments to zero and they debt maturity to 3 to 4 years, creating a perfect macro cycle.

Ever wondered where all my research comes from?

Well, the genesis of ALL my thinking comes from Global Macro Investor, where @BittelJulien and I do our deep thinking each month (120 pages+).

I'm immensely proud of GMI and Ive been writing it for 20 years.... 1/ It is an expensive research service and is subscribed to by many of the world's largest hedge funds (usually the principals), SWF's, Asset managers, RIA's, Family Offices and HNW investors.

It also has the best proven and recorded track record of any research service...ever.

The Pause That Refreshes...

1. Bitcoin The Pause That Refreshes...

2. ETH

The Fed arent going to cut! Its only going to be once or twice! The markets are going to freak out!

Meanwhile, in Global Macro Investor (GMI)...

1995/6 springs to mind... 1/ Bond yields didnt return to their lows...(or their highs)

What is Macro/Crypto Summer and why does it matter?

Well, macro summer has started, its the part of The Everything Code cycle where the ISM picks up (GDP growth).... 1/ And that is driven by liquidity, which bottomed at the end of 2022... macro summer and fall are all about liquidity rising and is a core part of The Everything Code thesis...

It can't be this easy, right?...right? Part 1 - Bitcoin +110% annual returns from doing nothing. It can't be this easy, right?... right? Part 2 - Nasdaq +21% annual returns from doing nothing.

I thought I'd share a new way of thinking about crypto that might help make sense of it all for you.

This first appeared in my November Global Macro Investor (GMI) monthly. I don't normally share direct work from GMI bit I think its worth it.

Enjoy.

1/

Raoul's Easy Guide to the Business Cycle and Why it Matters:

Today:

ISM leads GDP by 3 months. ISM is around zero GDP growth currently, so GDP should be low Q4 and Q1.

This is where cyclical stocks, RTY and commodities live, and is why they are subdued. ISM + 5 Months:

But our Lead indicator for ISM has been rising sharply. This is generally where the SPX lives (part cyclical, part growth) and explains the SPX strength vs Russell 2000 (RTY) or commodities...

Crypto💘 Liquidity

1/ It really loves Global M2... this is when BTC outperforms the NDX and crypto becomes the Super Massive Black Hole...

$SOL - Ive been extremely bullish all year.

It's up 171% this year and we are about to test the big inverse head and shoulders at $30.... next major resistance would likely be $50, once confirmed. 1/ It has broken out vs ETH....

Postcards from the Death of the American Dream..

(warning, these are not comfortable viewing)

Since 1965 (everyones working memory) wages have not risen in real terms. Its an endless hamster wheel of despair... Made worse by the fact that asset prices keep going up. Equities have risen in real terms by 2.5% per year and has compounded in a loss of purchasing power by workers of 83%