The Fed arent going to cut! Its only going to be once or twice! The markets are going to freak out!

Meanwhile, in Global Macro Investor (GMI)...

1995/6 springs to mind... 1/ Bond yields didnt return to their lows...(or their highs)

What is Macro/Crypto Summer and why does it matter?

Well, macro summer has started, its the part of The Everything Code cycle where the ISM picks up (GDP growth).... 1/ And that is driven by liquidity, which bottomed at the end of 2022... macro summer and fall are all about liquidity rising and is a core part of The Everything Code thesis...

It can't be this easy, right?...right? Part 1 - Bitcoin +110% annual returns from doing nothing. It can't be this easy, right?... right? Part 2 - Nasdaq +21% annual returns from doing nothing.

I thought I'd share a new way of thinking about crypto that might help make sense of it all for you.

This first appeared in my November Global Macro Investor (GMI) monthly. I don't normally share direct work from GMI bit I think its worth it.

Enjoy.

1/

Raoul's Easy Guide to the Business Cycle and Why it Matters:

Today:

ISM leads GDP by 3 months. ISM is around zero GDP growth currently, so GDP should be low Q4 and Q1.

This is where cyclical stocks, RTY and commodities live, and is why they are subdued. ISM + 5 Months:

But our Lead indicator for ISM has been rising sharply. This is generally where the SPX lives (part cyclical, part growth) and explains the SPX strength vs Russell 2000 (RTY) or commodities...

Crypto💘 Liquidity

1/ It really loves Global M2... this is when BTC outperforms the NDX and crypto becomes the Super Massive Black Hole...

$SOL - Ive been extremely bullish all year.

It's up 171% this year and we are about to test the big inverse head and shoulders at $30.... next major resistance would likely be $50, once confirmed. 1/ It has broken out vs ETH....

Postcards from the Death of the American Dream..

(warning, these are not comfortable viewing)

Since 1965 (everyones working memory) wages have not risen in real terms. Its an endless hamster wheel of despair... Made worse by the fact that asset prices keep going up. Equities have risen in real terms by 2.5% per year and has compounded in a loss of purchasing power by workers of 83%

The Exponential Age theme, continues, well exponentially....

The Exponential Age basket is up over 60% YTD... 1/ My thesis is crypto will outperform tech and tech will outperform all other equities.

BTC is up 75% YTD

Nothing really matters...

blah blah blah P/E ratios, blah blah blah earnings recession, blah blah blah "well akshully is the options gamma"... blah blah blah correlation ≠ causation, blah blah blah blah blah

It's liquidity that matters above all things. 1/ And liquidity is rising

TGA re-build blah blah blah, RRP blah blah blah, banking crisis blah blah blah, debt default blah blah blah, recession blah blah blah, gov interest payments blah blah blah...

The outcome, MOAR COWBELL. On the right time horizon, all roads lead to MOAR

Something to think about on the weekend. An important thread on monetary debasement...

You hear me talk about MOAR COWBELL a lot. This is the meme of monetary and fiscal stimulus that has become a default setting for our world... To understand why MOAR COWBELL is how the world works now, you need to understand the Magic Formula:

GDP Growth =
Population Growth + Productivity Growth + Debt Growth

In recent months I've written some VERY important articles for GMI and Real Vision Pro Macro.

The two key ones are "Broken Markets and the Cowbell", "The Truth and The Trap".

They are based around what I refer to as the "Magic Formula" which is the key to everything 1/ The Magic Formula:

GDP growth =

Population growth+ Productivity Growth+ Debt Growth

And therein lie all the issues we face, both economically, and as a society.

The Famous Ginsu Knife Ad!

The Ginsu Knife Ad was a famous 90's Ad that gave away LUDICROUSLY over the top extra's included in your purchase to sweeten the deal. It changed product bundles for ever (and made everyone laugh at the ridiculousness advert).

https://twitter.com/mr_intuition/status/1632130314691543043

The Real Vision collective is our own "Ginsu Knife".

The product bundle and giveaways are so LUDICROUS as to make you laugh... but at the heart is a true mission to add utility and value for all in a space that sorely needs it...

Ready? Let us begin...using exclamation marks!!

The Real Vision Collective Allow List partners (you better move quickly even if you are back from Paris with a hangover!!)

1. The Season 1 NFT partners

NFT1

#mfers
@HENI /Damian Hirst - The Currency
@XCOPYART

NFT 2
@rektguyNFT
@MeebitsNFTs
@6529Collections ... NFT 3
@worldofwomennft
@WomenandWeapons
@Yinkore_

2. Community partners with benefits!

@Ledger
@RugRadio
@overpricedjpegs
@ZenAcademy
@impact_theory
@SeizeTheMeebs
@newherexyz
@inpeakxyz
@CPGCLUB

More to come...

A Sunday morning read on NFTs and why Real Vision is launching a big (and hopefully important) NFT community...The Real Vision Collective

But first, let's take a poll because NFTs are like marmite (most you either love them or hate them)! If you fall in the nay-sayers category, you might want to read this thread:

https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1454612829248630790?s=20

I love photo art...

I just discovered this incredible collection of NFT's...

It's a utopian/dystopian take on the American Dream/Americana using photo art and generative AI, pushing new boundaries in a warped dream sense of nostalgia.

Huge Fan. 1/

opensea.io/collection/lif… It's by Roope Rainisto on BrainDrops...

Since 1980 US median Household Income has lost 89% of its purchasing power in terms of investment in equities. How can a young person make any future wealth when the cards are stacked against them? 1/ They can buy 26% less of a property too....

One thing I mull over in crypto is hoe deflationary ETH is after only a small increase in on chain activity... 1/ What the hell happens in a bull market when after the Shanghai fork most ETH is not available on the market. Currently only 13% is staked, after the fork it might get closer to the average of 60% (lets say 35% to be reasonable)...

Well, well, well... it's looking a lot like a possible breakout of the much hated NDX, which is something I've been expecting. It probably needs to clear 12500 to confirm so still on "high alert". 1/ The NDX put in a beautiful monthly DeMark 9 count in October (remember the thread about October being the bear market killer month?)...

In a world of MASSIVE change - a 4th Turning maybe - where our personal economies, finance, politics and our old ways of life are all called into question as the world seeks fresh answers and a new way forward, the rise of "Speculative Communities" has occurred. 1/ These ideas are influenced by the book I am reading "Speculative Communities: Living with Uncertainty in a Financialzed World" by @ariskomporozos suggested to me by @iancr. Im still working through this fascinating book but here are some initial thoughts...

Happy New Year, you lovely people!

Thanks for being part of my learning journey in 2022. 🙏

Its been a tough year made tougher by the bear market sentiment of anger, confusion and personal attacks. I've had my share of them and its all part of online life, sadly...

1/ My advice for 2023 is:

Learn to be nicer to each other. Karma works. 🤝

There are no guru's. I m not a guru, you are not a guru. We will all be right and wrong at times. 😳

Your investing game is yours and yours alone. It is a lonely pursuit by nature. Own it.👍