Dr.@Rabs_AA had a brilliant , scholarly and IR-esque conversation with the erudite @RRajagopalanJNU on alliances, Structural Realism, balancing etc, in the context of India's basket of options in the wake of conflagration with China. Thread to follow.
When asked by @Rabs_AA as to how India ,as a weaker power , can coerce China, Dr.Rajesh, while acknowledging India's relatively less power overall, pointed to things being even stevens at the theatre level in and around the LAC.
He also added that India has some advantages versus China ,especially in terms of airpower ,owing to the terrain. However, he said that the very advantage may not translate into a cogent tool of coercion. Using airpower would be an uncomfortable route to take.
Beset with a defensive posture viz China and lack of offensive preparedness and wherewithal, India does not have viable options as far as coercion is concerned, contended Dr.Rajesh.
Prof.Rajesh said that China might be in a position to coerce India. He also spent time in highlighting the significance of signaling in coercion. He said that there is not much clarity in New Delhi on what Beijing wants to exact.
When @Rabs_AA asked about the implications of India's seemingly low resolve on Sino-Indo relations, Dr.Rajesh talked about how India has taken an approach marked by firmness on the ground and at the diplomatic level, and quietness publicly.
He said that given its lack of options , India does not want to escalate, while adding that showing resolve during a crisis essentially means escalation, something that India cannot do at this.
When asked by @Rabs_AA on how India will juggle strategic autonomy and strategic proximity with the US, Dr.Rajesh said that the ever-increasing power gap between India and China, has brought to the fore limitations of the former's internal balancing.
He said that India is headed towards external balancing in a bid to bolster its internal balancing. This is something that is difficult, he added.
He enunciated that a degree of autonomy is lost when a state turns towards external balancing. He outlined some of impediments that emanate due to alliances to include abandonment and commitment.
India, Dr.Rajesh argued, is likely to move towards more external balancing within its overall balancing mosaic. He stressed the difficulties attached to this policy.
On the question of the clash of alliances, Dr.Rajesh talked about the how China can use smaller neighbours against India, should the former try to use them against China.
Regional cohesion against China is punctured by China's economic moves and the disparate interests of each country within the region, asserted Dr.Rajesh. Top point.
He reminded the audience that creating a web of economic and trade connections with countries opposed to China, is an onerous task.
On US-Indo ties and India's receding ability to diversify ,Dr.Rajesh while delving on how ties have progressed ,focused on the reticence and unease in New Delhi. He accentuated on the unavoidable balance of obligations and how difficult it is to walk a tightrope.
He said that given that India is afflicted with insecurity viz China, it choices will become clearer and the ability to diversify harder. He also questioned India's deepening relationship with Russia.
Dr.@Rabs_AA, invoking Allison's Thucydides Trap, asked about India's approach to a world order typified by an intensification of Structural Realism and as to how it can tinker with its strategic thoughts, going forward.
Dr.Rajesh dissected the problems and limitations of an Americanized version of Realism. Part of those issues, he said, stem from the US taking a global view of the balance.
According to Dr.Rajesh, the Thucydides Trap is problematic ,for its systemic approach does not help fathom regional concerns, which are more worrisome for India rather than the US.
He also critiqued the bent towards defensive realism and that a balance is arrived at. He remarked that achieving a balance once a state has crossed a capabilities' threshold is untenable, while adding that China has indeed done that.
He said that American conception of Realism is not useful for an Indian scholar like him to come to grips with regional dynamics. @Rabs_AA ended the talk by mentioning the inherent limitations of applying theories and concepts sans contextualisation.
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