Thread by @a_sandhan

#Mixed2frontwar
👉2 front war till now meant China n Pak simultaneously at war with India from their respective land
👉#Mixed2frontwar means Chinese operating its some of its fighter jets from Paki land

https://twitter.com/a_sandhan/status/1276935602328317952

👉Till getting pounded at Galwan valley, China was projecting itself as a huge military power who will overrun India in couple of days
👉Military power projection during Doklam was more intense

👉One tight slap n all bravado gone to gutter
👉When China talks of using Pak airbase, it is sign they have lost the confidence to take on India
👉See the fall. For yrs China armed Pak with nukes, missiles, fighters in a bid to stop India, failed. Now China itself lost confidence

👉So they have decided to team up. Lets see how it affects India
👉Media reports say China have sent 30-40 J10, J11 fighters to Pak n take over some airbase of Pak
👉GOI had wargamed such a scenario. If we recall there were reports of IAF entering Karachi airspace twice n also

circulars of Karachi electricity department informing of blackout for a fortnight
👉This plus increased shelling at LOC was message from India to Pak, stay away from Indo China conflict, or else penalty will be huge

👉The much hyped Skardu airbase is a small one, can't handle more than 10
👉All main cities of Pak Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Sialkot, Gujrat, Gujranwala r within 20-70KM from Indian border, Islamabad is 1000 km

👉Even artillery, MBRL r enough to pin it down. Prahar, Prithvi missiles can cause huge destruction
👉Every airbase n important installation in Pak r locked by landmass based Brahmos
👉Sukhoi 30MKI can launch Brahmos even w/o crossing border on 90% Paki targets

👉Pak knew Indian navy can carryout economic blockade of Karachi n other ports. Plus IN can hit its ports thro sea launched missiles
👉Also sending fighter jets is not enough. After every combat sortie weapons have to be loaded, refueling n mandatory checks required.

👉After every 3-4 hr of combat sortie complete shutdown of jets for maint is required. Lot of spare parts r to be replace
👉So China will have to spare a lot of ground engg staff, whole range of spares n equipment's, weapons

👉So things r not so easy. Pus there will be communication problem with control room of Pakis
👉Now coming to Chinese airspace. China can commit at the most 90 fighters in 4 base in western sector bordering India. Only Hotan can operate optimally

👉As explained in earlier thread no airbase in Tibet, Xinjiang is hardened. Chinese fighters will be sitting ducks to IAF attack. Even if airstrip is destroyed PLAAF becomes useless
👉Gonggar n Shigatse can hold 72 more fighters but face payload restriction problem n can't target

current standoff point i.e. Ladakh
👉So India will face at the most PAF + 30 PLAAF in Pak + 90 PLAAF from Chinese side, quite manageable
👉Pinpoint accuracy of Brahmos can make many airfields unfit to fly in initial hrs
👉If same happens with India, we have airbase in deep n

Sukhoi 30MKI range is 3300 KM, so no problem
👉We forget one thing. In 1965/1971 war muslim countries has sent fighter jets with pilots to fight in war against India. So nothing new for India
👉For first time IAF has quality advantage over Pak/China

👉As said things r within manageable limits. Still with large border there will be large gaps from which attack can happen. Applies to both
👉It is fear of repercussion which act as control. Pak knows India can easily sustain an surprise attack n initial loss

👉Pak cities within artillery, MBRL range, accuracy of Indian missiles, Brahmos n more importantly lethal Indian navy have stopped Pak from misadventure after 2 surgical strikes
👉Pak knows handing over land to China for launching attack against India will be unpardonable act for

India
👉China doesn't get huge leverage by using Paki land, but it will ensure disproportionate response from India
👉Every Chinese asset in IOR from Djibouti to Coco Islands n its merchant vessel will be targeted by Indian navy. China can't break the navy blockade of IN

👉Even on Tibet side both airbases Shigaste n Gonggar(Lhasa) r within landbased Brahmos range
👉Point to be noted, Chinese defence budget is 3-4 times Indiaan def budget. They hv border dispute with us, threatens war against us but never bothered to hv hardened shelter for PLAAF

👉Which country keeps fighters parked on runway. Surprise attack by enemy will finish its fighting capacity. It clearly means they r not serious of war
👉They just want to extract as much possible thro induced fear

👉Indians need not fear mixed front war with Pak, China
👉Threat of a #Mixed2frontwar is a pressure tactics of China. They want India to give face saver in Ladakh
👉Why I say face saver. If China had encroached on Indian land, they would not have hinted at use of 2 front war

👉#Mixed2frontwar threat is a message, give a face saver or vacate any land of China encroached by India
👉Can India encroach Chinese land, vey possible

https://twitter.com/a_sandhan/status/1264116240542568452?s=20

👉Due 2 Pak we r always on alert, plus due to Siachen/ Kargil height deployment we have large no of soldiers used 2 such atmosphere
👉China is not used to such atmosphere, can't deploy thousands n maintain logistics
👉Huge money n supply chain is required for it, drain on economy

👉At a time when Chinese economy is in mess, jobless protesting on streets, 20% pay cut to police, biggest flooding in last 50 yrs they just can't afford a war, which they r confident of not winning
👉Friends hope this thread will calm those who fear 2 front war

👉Thanks for reading the long thread 🙏🙏
👉This probably will happen 99%. 1% for insane mind

https://twitter.com/a_sandhan/status/1274986582387249152?s=20

Slight correction in 6 no tweet, Read 100 km instead of 1000 km, the distance of Islamabad from Indian border.