On today's Mann Ki Baat, Indian PM Modi mentioned the China crisis. He didn't mention China by name, but he did talk about Ladakh & there are visuals of soldiers in Ladakh & also of the flag-draped coffins of fallen soldiers
2/ Re China crisis, Modi noted the world has seen India's strength & commitment to protect its borders & sovereignty; those who eyed India's territory in Ladakh were giving "befitting reply"; India knows how to maintain friendship, but also can look someone in the eye & retaliate
3/ Modi didn't mention #BoycottChina calls in India directly, but he did mention a woman from Assam writing abt her decision after "what happened in E Ladakh" to only buy local.

[this fits his prev call for #SelfReliance but still unsure how this fits w/ GVC/trade deal goals]

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More from @tanvi_madan

Oct 5
🧵 a question readers have asked is, wld India-China rels return to normal if Xi thought strategically & agreed to return to status quo ante at the border.

Short answer: I still don't believe 🇨🇳🇮🇳 ties can return to the track they were on in 2019, let alone 2003-

Here's why
1/
2/ Another version of ques is, will Modi seek/strike a deal with China?

Lil' doubt Modi wld like a stable border. Wld enable him to
- focus on econ
- buy time to enhance mil capabilities, border infra
- host successful G20 next year
- avoid border becoming 2024 re-election issue
3/ First, I think such a border deal unlikely. Wld require (as defined by GOI):
(a) disengagement at all friction points
(b) de-escalation

Even if (a) happened, unlikely China wld agree to (b), i.e. troop reduction & esp dismantling mil/other infra. So, India wldnt do it either
Read 8 tweets
Oct 4
🇮🇳🇺🇦
Readout of Indian PM Modi's call with Ukraine's President Zelenskyy

[Ukrainian PM after a mtg w Indian EAM Jaishankar had said "We count on India's support in providing grain corridors & demilitarization of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station"]
pib.gov.in/PressReleasePa…
2/ Don't know what it's signaling, but the reference to the Nov. 2021 meeting is interesting.
3/ Even at the time, the Nov 2021 Modi-Zelenskyy meeting had been noteworthy (so was Modi's reported promise to visit Ukraine):
Read 4 tweets
Sep 16
Putin to Modi: "I know about your position on the conflict in Ukraine and I know about your concerns. I know that you share these concerns and we want all of this to end as soon as possible..." 1/
2/ Modi, who skipped his usual initial hug, to Putin:

"Today's era is not one of war, and I’ve talked to you about this on the phone several times…in the coming days, how we move towards the path of peace – we will definitely have an opportunity to discuss this."

[my transl.]
3/ In his initial remarks Modi also noted key concerns for developing countries – food security, fuel security, fertilizer supply problems -- saying, “we’ll have to find solutions and you will also have to take the initiative”
Read 9 tweets
Sep 14
🧵 since there've been 2 announced meetings of ambassadors from the Quad countries in the last couple of days, a thread about them... 1/
2/ The first public sign of Quad ambassadors meeting was this from Sept. 2020 when US permanent rep to NATO hosted in Brussels (it was Amb. Kay Bailey Hutchison then)
3/ Beyond the meeting yesterday, the representatives of the Quad member states to the UN have met regularly... ImageImageImage
Read 8 tweets
Sep 14
1/ Motivations for India's membership in SCO:
- ↑ ties w Central Asian countries
- be in room when issues like Afghanistan sit. discussed
- keep Russia onside
- keep an eye on 🇨🇳🇷🇺
- don't want to leave platform to rivals (🇨🇳🇵🇰)
- can be venue to talk w rivals
2/ Limitations for India in SCO:
- started out as non-west platform; now 🇨🇳🇷🇺 pushing to make it an anti-west one -- but for India, west key for tackling China challenge, econ & tech transformation, enhancing int'l status

- China-India contradictions

- India-Pakistan tensions
3/ Are Quad & SCO same for India?

No.

Quad:
- based on convergence on what kind of region the members would like to see
- shared concerns about China’s assertiveness
- members have no major (esp territorial) disputes with each other
- recent ↑ activities; mtgs at var. levels
Read 6 tweets
May 21
🇦🇺🇮🇳 For those in India watching #AusVotes22 results & wondering about new govt & India, China, Quad etc, worth seeing remarks by Sen. Penny Wong, then shadow foreign minister, at @raisinadialogue this year 1/
2/ Also, particularly to see where Australia's China discussion is, watch the foreign policy debate a week ago between Sens. Payne & Wong
(tldr: this is not the 2007-08 Aus Labor Party)
3/ Australian PM-elect Albanese will be headed to the Quad summit & it'll be a good opportunity hopefully for not just that platform but bilats as well...
Read 6 tweets

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