1/ US vs. Brazil, daily new COVID cases & death(from worldometers.info)
The naive interpretation:
US is getting much better! (death/case ratio)
Our treatment rocks!
COVID is getting weaker!
(! used as excited it-has-finally-turn-into-flu bros and sis insist) /s
The naive interpretation:
US is getting much better! (death/case ratio)
Our treatment rocks!
COVID is getting weaker!
(! used as excited it-has-finally-turn-into-flu bros and sis insist) /s
2/ faulty assumptions in the naive analysis:
1. daily new case # accurately reflects daily new symptomatic COVID patients, without realizing that (a) lack of test kits in the US in march pushed the actual peak (red) later) (b) many tests were reported 5-8 days late
1. daily new case # accurately reflects daily new symptomatic COVID patients, without realizing that (a) lack of test kits in the US in march pushed the actual peak (red) later) (b) many tests were reported 5-8 days late
3/ 2. daily death # is not revised up later (death # gets revised in CDC reports and many state reports)
3. age distribution of COVID new cases remains constant.
3. age distribution of COVID new cases remains constant.
4/ US is getting much better?
An exponential growth is always going to crash our hospital system.
A crashed hospital system won't be able to treat patient adequately.
We need to increase social distancing to change the growth rate. Status quo does not work.
An exponential growth is always going to crash our hospital system.
A crashed hospital system won't be able to treat patient adequately.
We need to increase social distancing to change the growth rate. Status quo does not work.
5/ Treatment is getting a lot better?
Yes, it is getting much better, but COVID is still a lot worse than flu in terms of fatality rate and sequelae.
We can probably realize an IFR of 0.6-0.8% right now, but an overwhelmed hospital system won't be able to deliver that
Yes, it is getting much better, but COVID is still a lot worse than flu in terms of fatality rate and sequelae.
We can probably realize an IFR of 0.6-0.8% right now, but an overwhelmed hospital system won't be able to deliver that
5/ Demographic shift in COVID19 patients is significant. 20-40 year old (majority of the new infection right now) often experience a longer course of COVID19 than 65+ year old. So the jury is still out whether lower IFR/CFR will be realized.
Next 3-4 weeks will be telling
Next 3-4 weeks will be telling
6/ COVID is getting weaker?
Considering the demographic shift, the data right now is not strong enough to make any conclusion. Error bars from delays in testing and death reporting are simply too large to make any conclusion.
Considering the demographic shift, the data right now is not strong enough to make any conclusion. Error bars from delays in testing and death reporting are simply too large to make any conclusion.
7/ Locally, Austin, Texas is throttling on COVID testing for mild cases again today. so expect more delays/inaccurate data until the 2nd peak has passed in hard hit areas.
