The excuse now is that banning apps doesn't immediately change things on the ground in Ladakh. And that the response isn't "massive" and "unbearable" for China. As if the Chinese incursion is "massive" and "unbearable" for India. 🤷🏻♂️
Restricting Chinese digital companies from operating in one of their largest markets is not “effective”. But removing embassy security barriers is. Shows how much we’ve come to value symbolism over substance.
In my Expert™ opinion, these are weak responses to the Ladakh incursions:
- Take economic measures against China.
- Shore up defences along border.
- Buy time to build strength and reinforce forward areas.
- Refuse to get into a pointless war of words.
On the other hand, these are strong responses to the Ladakh incursions:
- Issue a strong statement naming China.
- Issue a strong demarche.
- Issue a strongly worded parliamentary resolution.
- Expel someone from the Chinese embassy.
- Burn an effigy of the Wuhan summit.
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Credible claims:
- 🇮🇳 executed strikes on terrorist infra in several locations in Pak.
- 🇮🇳 managed to destroy vital infra at nearly all PAF bases. These strikes were mostly symbolic.
- 🇵🇰 shot down at least two manned Indian aircraft.
Semi-credible claims:
- 🇮🇳 destroyed AWACS/fighters inside a hangar.
- 🇮🇳 targeted and damaged Pakistan nuke storage/command sites.
- 🇵🇰 shot down three or more manned Indian aircraft.
Thread on "Human Error" or "Pilot Error". These are widely misunderstood terms, and that lack of understanding is being used to float unhinged conspiracy theories. 🧵
People often see "human error" as an indictment of the pilot, an accusation that he or she made a mistake that could have been avoided. That is not so. It’s more about the limits of human interaction with fast-moving machines in high-pressure situations.
The human body has a natural sense of balance which ensures that people doing everyday activities don’t fall over. That sense hasn’t evolved to deal with high-speed flight in difficult conditions (say dense fog that blanks out all visual references). en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sense_of_…
Patio furniture procured from Home Depot demonstrates how dependent the two countries are on the US for critical needs despite their professed independence.
Putin has his hands clasped tightly, while Modi's has cupped his palms together, demonstrating Russia's unwillingness/inability to provide what India wants despite Indian requests.
In short, the Russians treat indirect fires as the primary element, with maneuver forces only helping artillery get into position and seizing an objective after it has been devastated.
So the artillery footprint is very large, and the firepower is incredible, although imprecise.
Quick thread: Some I lessons learned, not from the Ukraine invasion in particular, but in following domestic/international crises and conflicts over the last few years, and from life in general. Nearly all arise out of my own failures/missteps/botch-ups.
1. Things aren't always what they seem at the start. Finding accurate information in a sea of propaganda is close to impossible. Wait for a situation to develop; don't celebrate/surrender prematurely.
2. Most real-time commentary (a.k.a OSINT) is garbage. The worst is often peddled by anonymous handles.