@realmoney
Jun 30, 2020 | 07:15 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Uncertainty and a Turning Point in Time?
* Deep thoughts on June 30
We are now about one half through the year.
I may be overreacting but something smells to me. The world is changing and the market isn't looking seriously at
Jun 30, 2020 | 07:15 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Uncertainty and a Turning Point in Time?
* Deep thoughts on June 30
We are now about one half through the year.
I may be overreacting but something smells to me. The world is changing and the market isn't looking seriously at
the change that is unfolding.
In the trading and investing world we often look myopically at market action -- we focus on "what happened today, this week or over the last month."
Social change appears real and with it, structural change to the economic framework of many of the
In the trading and investing world we often look myopically at market action -- we focus on "what happened today, this week or over the last month."
Social change appears real and with it, structural change to the economic framework of many of the
world's major and democratic industrial nations.
The virus masks many things but the change in the summer of 2020 may be looked at as a turning point in time. And it is not one friendly to capitalism and freely working markets.
Come the end of summer and election season will be
The virus masks many things but the change in the summer of 2020 may be looked at as a turning point in time. And it is not one friendly to capitalism and freely working markets.
Come the end of summer and election season will be
in full bloom. With it, in combination with social upheaval and virus concerns, comes a period in time that is about as uncertain as I can remember in my investing career.
The Fed and its counterparts abroad will do what they can to stabilize what they can. Supporting a fragile,
The Fed and its counterparts abroad will do what they can to stabilize what they can. Supporting a fragile,
interconnected and flat system which, at this point, is being held together by a series of polarized opposite, uneven and perhaps divergent goals of almost everything and everyone.
With that in mind it feels counterintuitive (and, at times, almost ludicrous) to be overweighted
With that in mind it feels counterintuitive (and, at times, almost ludicrous) to be overweighted
or even equally weighted long risk assets (like stocks).
The only problem is where doesn't it feel wrong? To most, cash appears safe (CITA -- "cash is the alternative") but not as safe as in previous times of market upheaval as money printing is finally on the edge of debasing
The only problem is where doesn't it feel wrong? To most, cash appears safe (CITA -- "cash is the alternative") but not as safe as in previous times of market upheaval as money printing is finally on the edge of debasing
what's holding everything together, faith in the paper that it's printed on.
To say I am bearish at these expanded price/earnings levels and general market optimism may be an understatement. The problem is I just don't know and it is difficult to ascertain where to hide.
When
To say I am bearish at these expanded price/earnings levels and general market optimism may be an understatement. The problem is I just don't know and it is difficult to ascertain where to hide.
When
President Trump took office the S&P Index was about 2250. It sounds crazy (and though my baseline assumption is a trading range of 2500-3100 in the S&P Index) but it is not out of the question that it could threaten that level when he leaves office in January 2021 again.
Of course I freely admit I have little faith in my beliefs playing out, as fighting the dirty float (delivered after the financial crisis) has turned the markets upside down -- with reduced natural price discovery -- leaving me with one certainty and that's uncertainty itself.
