Plagarism! My Surprise @realmoney (written in December, 2023)... 1. Donald Trump is convicted of obstruction and conspiracy.
In an agreement between the former President and the current President, Biden pardons Trump in exchange for Trump agreeing to leave the 2024 Presidential

https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1744043678664912999

race. Governor Ron DeSantis finishes third in both the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries and drops out of the race -- with Nikki Haley capturing many of his supporters - closing the gap with Trump. Chris Christie drops out soon thereafter while Vivek Ramaswamy hangs on to the

@dougkass We are all aware of the Biblical and commercial aspects of Christmas.
Perhaps we should, as we approach the Holidays, listen to what that worldly philosopher, The Grinch, had to say:
“It came without ribbons! It came without tags! It came without packages, boxes, or bags!"

Here is a preview of my 10 Surprises for 2024 to be published tomorrow on @realmoney
Surprise #1. Donald Trump is convicted of obstruction and conspiracy. In an agreement between the former President and the current President, Biden pardons Trump in exchange for Trump agreeing to leave the 2024 Presidential race. Governor Ron DeSantis finishes third in both the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries and drops out of the race - with Nicky Haley capturing many of his supporters - closing the gap with Trump. Chris Christie drops out soon thereafter while Vivek

@realmoney
A Key Theme of My Rosie Podcast Yesterday
* In yesterday's podcast I quoted Alfred E. Neuman, Bob Farrell, Lee Cooperman, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett, Ben Graham, Rousseau, Voltaire and Grandma Koufax in explaining my ursine market view. Investors are unjustifiably discounting a "Goldilocks Outlook".
Given the wide range of outcomes (economic, political, social,  geopolitical, and  market) there are no certainties in an uncertain world.
As an example,  expressed below in a tweet by Mohamed El-Erian, one major

@realmoney Trade of the Week - Short $QQQ ($388.61)
With the "S&P Short Range Oscillator" surging to 7.33% at Friday's close from 4.93% - the overbought is now getting extreme.
The weakness we began to see late last week in mega cap technology stocks is likely to accelerate into the next few weeks of December and early January with large tech holders in the "Magnificent Seven" leaking out positions to be followed by a lot of selling at the beginning of 2024 by taxable participants (pushing gains forward).

@realmoney @dougkass The Perpetual Liquidity Machine
* More thought on the dirty water of liquidity...
I think of the ginormous amount of liquidity the Fed created after 2007 as held in a huge flat pan - the world economy - with high sides. You tilt it to one end and the water moves like a tsunami in that direction, you try to keep it from slopping over (to terrorists and Nigerian bankers) by tilting it back and another (hopefully smaller tsunami moves in the opposite direction).
Repeat that over and over again and over years and years, even

Coming up on @realmoney
The Markets Are Ignoring Global Recessionary Signposts
* As valuations and prices rise, the chorus of momentum - following Perma Bulls and ODTE (zero days to expiration) call option buyers are singing "Everything Is Coming Up Roses" with Ethel Merman * The global bond markets and the commodities markets (especially oil) are signaling recession
* CSCO, PNAW and now WMT warn that the time ahead will be challenging
* The last "soft landing" in a period of rising interest rates was during the Clinton Administration

Perma bulls (who parade on Fin TV) have been confidentally projecting a broadening out of the advance - for over 300 S&P handles! The opposite has occurred - new low on Russell, equal weighted S&P now down on the year - but you won't see an admission of fault. This reminds me of something Grandma Koufax used to say, "Dougie, they are often wrong but never in doubt."
They will continue to appear in the business media, never taking ownership of these forecasts for fear of losing business, clients or reputations.

The job of any analyst (and that includes cannabis analysts) is to evaluate all variables in selecting a security - that includes fundamentals, potential legislative initiatives, sentiment, valuation, etc.. I have observed that weed perma bulls blame everything on others ...

https://twitter.com/TheDalesReport/status/1717246304856805424

when they should blame themselves. Like the boy who cried wolf, one day the bulls (and managements) will be right - but, after a -90% drawdown thinking they are still correct in their fundamental industry assessment, making excuses (and developing short selling conspiracies)

The Perma bullish cabal liked the action in July - expecting a broadening in the market's advance and a drop in interest rates. When that didn't happen they ignored the eroding technicals/rising rates, calling for an unlikely low double digit advance in 2024 S&P EPS. I have concluded that come hell, high water, excessive valuations, a spike in real interest rates or a Middle East war they will never abandon their optimism. They are no better than Perma bears - maybe worst. Whether its mega tech, consumer discretionary, transports or even cannabis-

On @realmoney on Friday...
Oct 20, 2023 | 12:40 PM EDT DOUG KASS
First Level Thinking Is On Display Today
* I bring this up not to be snarky or to conduct an ad hominem attack but for you all to understand how I see the market differently than therealmoney.thestreet.com/dougs-daily-di… consensus
"First-level thinking is simplistic and superficial, and just about everyone can do it - a bad sign for anything involving an attempt at superiority. All the first-level thinker needs is an opinion about the future, as in: 'The outlook for the company is favorable,

@realmoney Narratives keep changing (and are being made up!) but I remain of the view that credit is more attractive than equities, "slugflation" lies ahead (not valuation friendly), political and geopolitical problems are intensifying, our leaders have never been more partisan (and their fiscal disciplines are non existent), interest rates will be "higher for much longer"  (it is meaningless to me that the rate push is about over for the Fed), EPS expectations (high single digit/low double digit growth in 2024) and upbeat economic forecasts

My prayers and the prayers of many are with Israel this weekend.
I wrote this on @realmoney, years ago...
I am a Jew.
In the Jewish religion at Passover there are asked four questions.
I have three that I wake up every morning before trading starts and I ask them of myself: Unfortunately, I don't like the answers - they are market and society unfriendly.
1. In a paperless and cloudy world, are investors and citizens as safe as the markets assume we are?
2. In a flat, networked and interconnected world, is it even possible for America to be an

For months I have argued that the specter of slugflation lies ahead - and with it other headwinds that could be valuation unfriendly. One of those challenges I have expressed on @realmoney and to our investors @seabreezelp is the partisanship and animus between both parties in Washington DC is dangerous especially amid the burgeoning federal debt load and annual deficit. Few have been worried about this existential risk but they should be. Both sides of the pew are to blame but as investors we have to evaluate the impact of their lack of cooperation

@dougkass Sep 25, 2023 | 04:52 PM EDT DOUG KASS
From 'The Street of Dreams': The Steepener Trade
From Loop Capital on the bond market:
The big winner was the Steepener trade. As I humbly look at the horizon, there is enough not so good things happening in the world that one may sense the Fed is on hold, more than thew Market is thinking. If the market believed the Fed was going to raise rates again in the near term ,then one would think the 2 year would be trading at a higher yield than 5.13% where we are at now.

..."All of these problems are the results of ill-advised decisions by governments. Russia's invasion, Argentina's terminal economic mismanagement, and China's pursuit of a debt-based economic model were decisions certain to lead to the serious problems these countries are now experiencing. Man remains his own worst enemy. While we are working on curing serious diseases, we really need to work on a cure for the flaws of human nature (yes, I know, fat chance of that). Investors need to pay attention to foreign markets as we head into the final months

From an August post:
"China's largest private developer, Country Garden, is in the midst of a debt crisis that piles on the $100 billion default of China Evergrande Group that began a couple of years ago and continues today. One would think there are only a limited number of multi-hundred billion dollar companies the Chinese government can bail out before even it runs out of money.
The property market accounts for about a quarter of China's economy so these problems are systemic. The government made a small gesture by lowering a key interest rate

@realmoney Sep 22, 2023 | 01:45 PM EDT DOUG KASS
Kids, Stay Away from Disney, Paramount Global
* I continue not to be tempted by lower share prices of these two popular entertainment companies
* Paramount ($PARA) and Disney ($DIS) have been viewed widely as value plays over the last several years. (I have demurred and have raised serious doubt of their value, even as several activists initiated and expanded their ownership).
In actuality the shares of PARA and DIS have served as hedges against profits -- as both stocks are now making or are near

Up on @realmoney Aug 15, 2023 | 09:10 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Accumulating Interest Rate/Stock Market Valuation Headwinds
* The real rate of the ten year Treasury note (over 1.80%) is up to 2009 levels.
* The Equity Risk Premium is paper thin from an historical standpoint. * The one year Treasury note yields 5.41% against the S&P dividend yield of only 1.51% - the largest gap in almost two decades.
*As witnessed by this morning's stronger than expected retail sales print, the domestic economy has grown less rate sensitive than in the past.

@realmoney @dougkass Jul 27, 2023 | 07:45 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Minding Mr. Market
Based on an explosive move overnight in stock futures, the S&P Index will make a 52-week high this morning.
This is not what I have expected.
I have been guided my numerous concerns (a reacceleration of inflation, high interest rates for longer, weakening EU/China stalling global economic growth, corporate profit concerns, elevated valuations and a narrow market advance... among other issues).
Above all I have viewed equities as overvalued relative to interest rates

@realmoney yesterday

Jul 18, 2023 | 08:24 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Why I Am Bearish Over the Remainder of 2023
* In the body of this missive I explain my view that downside risk dwarfs upside reward
* Today, few equities meet my standards for selection

* We see short and longer term challenges to equities
* 'Slugflation' - sluggish economic growth and prickly inflation - may lie ahead
* Equities are particularly overpriced relative to interest rates - the Equity Risk Premium is thin and bond yields are very high relative to the S&P dividend yield