Dougie Kass Profile picture
Seabreeze Capital Partners LP
TOOTALLNELS aka DOUG NELSON. Profile picture mark Profile picture Karen Profile picture Gold not dollars Profile picture Aurum Cimex Profile picture 152 added to My Authors
Feb 3 5 tweets 4 min read
@dougkass Coming up on @realmoney Feelings Over Fundamentals: The Market Grows More Bullish As I Grow More Bearish

* The downside Tepper panic narrative of two months ago has morphed into the $META euphoria narrative this week (in which we have witnessed a $125 billion expansion in META's market cap in the face of only a $5 billion reduction in expenses)
* The market's (and Warren Buffett's) "drunken sailor" has made an appearance this week on the New York Stock Exchange but the current euphoria may be short lived
Jan 24 4 tweets 4 min read
@realmoney @SeabreezeLP @dougkass
Jan 24, 2023 | 08:30 AM EST DOUG KASS
Mr. Market Is a Drunken Psycho
* Why/how I try to capitalize in a regime of heightened volatility caused, in large measure, by quants and hyperbole
* Remain sober!
* Yesterday I made plenty of sales * $Alphabet ($GOOGL) , Amazon ($AMZN) , Disney (DIS) and some other individual securities were implemented yesterday - as well as adding to some shorts and moving back from net long Index exposure to market neutral.
Dec 30, 2022 11 tweets 5 min read
Dec 29, 2022 | 03:07 PM EST DOUG KASS
A Happy New Year to All!
* 2022 has been a very difficult year
* Every relationship has its problems but what makes it strong is when you still want to be in it when everything else sucks!
Dougie Rather than wait until tomorrow I wanted to express - on this penultimate trading day of the year - my gratitude to the Real Money Pro community.
You have provided me with an unusual platform and forum for the last 25 years (OMG!).
I have tried to deliver thought provoking,
Dec 27, 2022 6 tweets 4 min read
Now up on @realmoney
Dec 27, 2022 | 08:30 AM EST DOUG KASS
Prelude to My 10 Surprises for 2023 (Second Movement)
* How did I do last year?
* Very well!! Indeed 4/5 of most important surprises were accurate.
* My overall 60% success rate ties the best year ever. * Powell/The Fed turned extremely hawkish, "slugflation" emerged as inflation was more threatening than most imagined and domestic economic growth slowed down abruptly, equities (especially of a technology-kind and ARKK) collapsed, AT&T's shares meaningfully outperformed FAANG,
Dec 27, 2022 4 tweets 4 min read
@realmoney Dec 27, 2022 | 06:35 AM EST DOUG KASS
Prelude to My 10 Surprises for 2023 (First Movement)
* This is my 21st year of compiling my Surprise List!
* Nothing is more obstinate than a fashionable consensus
* My Surprise List recognizes that, over the course of time, conventional wisdom is often wrong -- as a society and as investors, we are consistently bamboozled by appearance and consensus
* The real purpose of this endeavor is a practical one -- that is, to consider positioning a portion of my portfolio in accordance with outlier events,
Dec 26, 2022 4 tweets 4 min read
Coming up on Tuesday morning on @realmoney My 10 Surprises for 2023 (and five also-rans)
Last year I had my greatest success in 21 years of producing my Annual List.
Here are some brief teasers for tomorrow's Surprise List!
* 2023 is "A Tale of Two Cities" - far different than consensus: I see the strong possibility of an up market in the first half and a down second half
* President Biden dumps Powell and Yellen who are replaced with Brainard and Raimondo
* Peace in Ukraine, a new regime in Russia and the death of Putin
Dec 20, 2022 4 tweets 4 min read
@realmoney Dec 20, 2022 | 08:40 AM EST DOUG KASS
Cannabis Stocks Are Still Not SAFE
* The exclusion of SAFE Banking legislation from the Omnibus Bill is a crushing blow to cannabis equities
* Though tempting, I would not bottom fish despite the magnitude of the share price declines over the last two weeks
* The long-term industry opportunity, already overestimated by many, will suffer further
* The cannabis industry will now undergo rapid consolidation
* With fundamentals weakening, cost of capital rising and debt maturities threatening,
Dec 15, 2022 9 tweets 5 min read
Relatedly, Powell was asked about a higher long term inflation target. At first he said “we are not going to consider that under any circumstances.” Appropriate answer, full stop. But then he followed up later on with "it may be a longer-run project at some point." Not what you want to say when you are trying to tighten financial conditions. Of course, it will get spun into what this article linked to below suggests, and result in the opposite of what you are trying to do. Then we get things like the asinine tweets from the world’s.
Dec 14, 2022 7 tweets 4 min read
Follow up to below, concrete examples of the Fed setting its own mandate, which led to disastrous outcomes, included the notions of allowing inflation to run above targeted rates for a period of time to make up for when inflation was under targeted rates for a period of time or forming an SPV to buy risky debt in violation of the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. By no definition is letting inflation go above targeted rates “price stability.” In fact that is the opposite. Further, it is interesting now that inflation has run well above targeted rates
Dec 7, 2022 6 tweets 5 min read
On @realmoney Caveat Emptor: Don't Believe The Hype
* What I have learned from my unprofitable journey into investing in cannabis stocks... and how you can benefit from my mistake… * Be Independent In View
* Be Realistic
* Fundamentals Trump Everything
* Evaluate The Orbit of Your Outside Resources
* Analysts Are Notoriously Bullish - Take Their Views With A Grain of Salt"
Dec 2, 2022 4 tweets 4 min read
Today on @realmoney @DougKass @SeabreezeLP Dec 02, 2022 | 08:39 AM EST DOUG KASS
More on Group Stink, Errant Consensus Market Forecasts and My Developing Market View
* 2022 was a year in which too many demonstrated dogma and lack of flexibility/objectivity. * This year, market views and individual stock opinions have rarely been so wrong-footed.

* 2023 may be much of the same!

* I have clear and (hopefully) explainable views and calculus... but I recognize that I am often wrong and always in doubt (so, unlike many, I never
Oct 1, 2022 4 tweets 4 min read
It has been a year since we lost my friend Tobias Levkovich... from @realmoney
Oct 04, 2021 | 07:15 AM EDT DOUG KASS
R.I.P. Tobias (Tuvia) Levkovich
On Saturday morning I learned that Tobias Levkovich, Citigroup's (C) Chief US Equity Strategist, my friend and my investment confidante over the last three decades passed away.
Tobias was walking to his synagogue when he was hit by an automobile on the morning of September 1 as he crossed a street in his hometown of Hewlett, Long Island. He had been hospitalized for a month before he passed away at
Sep 30, 2022 5 tweets 4 min read
@realmoney The biggest question that is being asked by investors over the last few weeks is that (given the instability of short term Treasury rates)... Is Risk Free Still Risk Free?… Sep 29, 2022 | 08:40 AM EDT DOUG KASS
The Bank of England, EPS and Market Instability: Is 'Risk Free' Still Risk Free?
* The investment mosaic has grown increasingly complex
* It is growing more difficult to attack inflation at a time in which financial markets are increasingly
Sep 29, 2022 4 tweets 4 min read
@realmoney Sep 29, 2022 | 08:40 AM EDT DOUG KASS
The Bank of England, EPS and Market Instability: Is 'Risk Free' Still Risk Free?
* The investment mosaic has grown increasingly complex
* It is growing more difficult to attack inflation at a time in which financial markets are increasingly unstable, less liquid and experiencing unprecedented volatility
* It is worrisome how interconnected our financial system has become and that we cannot readily absorb minor shocks...
* Will what happened in the UK bond market come to the U.S.?
* Will the Fed lose
Sep 28, 2022 4 tweets 3 min read
From @realmoney this morning...
Sep 28, 2022 | 08:52 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Ludacris Forecast
Though there is a lot of panic and general lack of understanding of policy and market gyrations, we may be closer to a market bottom than many expect.
I also suspect we are closer to the end of the Fed's tightening today than we were a few days ago.
And closer to a peak in US bond yields.
This should be bullish (the hardest trade?) for equities (market rallies/inflection points are often borne out of bad news).
Sep 27, 2022 7 tweets 4 min read
Up on @realmoney @SeabreezeLP Sep 27, 2022 | 07:07 AM EDT DOUG KASS
More Night Moves: A Quick Look at Overnight Futures
* The unprecedented instability of currencies and interest rates have underscored the likely end of the salad days of easy financial conditions and hold the key to the prospective course of global equity markets during both the overnight/morning and regular trading sessions.
* Crashing non-U.S. currencies and rapidly rising worldwide bond yields -- the byproduct of ill-timed (2021-22) and now hawkish monetary policy (and what appear
Sep 25, 2022 4 tweets 2 min read
Unfortunately and write this respectfully... its time for the tweeps, paid advisors and others who have presided over the cannabis stock decimation to take an account of their failed analysis of fundamentals and their wrong sided view of regulation and legislative relief. Markets rarely lie. $MSOS is -65% year to date. Many have hurt their reputations and businesses and those followers that have embraced their views. Repeating the same things on twitter - over and over again - is the definition of insanity (as Einstein wrote). Its time to
Sep 23, 2022 4 tweets 3 min read
@TSTRMPro Sep 23, 2022 | 08:12 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Minding Mr. Market - A Reverse Currency War
This morning a massive rise in global yields is creating a near panic in global equities and chaos in the world's currency markets - "a reverse currency war."
Stock futures have abruptly dropped in the last two hours, taking cash well below the lower end of my trading range.
Adjusting for the decline in futures - the S&P Index (year to date) is down by about -23% and the drop in the Nasdaq Index is approximately -32%. The average stock is down closer to -30%.
Sep 21, 2022 4 tweets 4 min read
@realmoney Sep 21, 2022 | 01:00 PM EDT DOUG KASS
Minding Mr. Market - Home, Home On The Range
* In The Chop Bucket...
As we approach the Fed's decision to raise interest rates by 75 basis points I continue to view market in The Chop Bucket - with a likely trading range of between 3800-3850 to 4200-4250 over the remainder of the year.
I have been a consistent buyer at the lower end of the forecast trading range over the last week - in the belief that we will not breach the mid-June lows.
On the other hand, I respect the headwinds, especially the
Sep 19, 2022 4 tweets 4 min read
@TSTRMPro Sep 19, 2022 | 01:42 PM EDT DOUG KASS
Minding Mr. Market - My Calculus
* Armed with a calculator I continue to predict a trading range in the S&P of between 3825-4225
As the market rallied to their August highs - of about 4150, S&P Index - I suggested that we are in a trading range bordered on 3800-3850 on the downside vs. 4200-4250 on the upside.
My trading range, as well as the market's "fair market value", was based on five market/economic/interest rate/valuation outcomes - from most negative to most positive - and assigning a
Sep 16, 2022 5 tweets 3 min read
The 1 year Treasury note now yields over 4%.
From @realmoney two weeks ago:
Aug 31, 2022 | 09:00 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Goodbye TINA, Hello TATA
* The rise in interest rates represents a bonafide challenge that limits the upside to stock prices and valuations Move over TINA ("There Is An Alternative") and say hello to my new friend TATA ("Treasuries Are The Alternative").
It is tautological that the dramatic rise in open market interest rates over the last 15 months represents an