Trump Says He May Leave the Country If He Loses nymag.com/intelligencer/…
Wouldn't this be awesome?! I'd even be OK with him avoiding prison for his crimes if he never set foot in the U.S. again - to better ensure that the stain of Trumpism is forever vanquished
Keep in mind that he has no sense of humor and never jokes - one reason why he has no friends (seriously - when asked, he couldn't name one).
"Perhaps one thing on the president’s mind is the developing criminal case against him. He faces serious legal jeopardy by
prosecutors in Manhattan and New York State for what seems to be, on its face, fairly cut-and-dried criminal fraud in his private business dealings. It is also possible that, having left office, prosecutors may turn over some rocks and discover more criminal behavior as president
Opener on @realmoney
This Week Demonstrates My Incremental Tactical Approach in Responding to a Possible Topping in the Markets
* In trading and investing, you don't have to submerge - you can take a dip incrementally
* The investment mosaic is complex and ever changing - it
is also becoming less predictable (on a near term basis) because of a changing market structure that exacerbates short term moves
* A regime of heightened volatility is ideal for opportunistic and unemotional traders and investors
* The "Biden Bump" realmoney.thestreet.com/dougs-daily-di… is
* I entered this week large net long in exposure and have steadily reduced by exposure to where I moved into net short exposure yesterday - as the +350 handle rise in the S&P has pulled forward the fourth quarter gains I previously expected
I try to be
This morning on @realmoney
Higher Stock Prices Are The Enemy of the Rational Buyer
* It has been a busy week for my portfolios
* In the last three weeks, coincident with at 350 handle rise in the S&P Index, the upside reward relative to the downside risk has materially changed
*This week, as the averages continued to advance, I moved from large sized to small sized in net long exposure
* I did not disturb any of my individual long holdings (except $DIS which rose by $7/share to over $132 after announcing a business reorganization) and I have no
Oct 13, 2020 | 10:15 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Moving to Small Sized Net Long Now
*As we reached my objectives discussed three weeks ago (a gain of 350 S&P handles)
Yesterday I observed that despite the outsized gain in the Nasdaq and S&P, market breadth on the NYSE was
only 3-2 positive.
This was a warning sign to me and one of the conditions that led me to starting a short Index hedge.
This morning market breadth more than 2-1 negative with the Nasdaq flat and the S&P down a handful.
In light of the several factors discussed this morning,
I am moving back down to small in net long exposure (defined as under 20% net long):
* The recent advance has likely borrowed against future fourth quarter stock price gains.
* Again, as in past temporary tops, the performance has been lopsided towards FAANG plus (MSFT) .
Coming up shortly on @realmoney Too Much Month at the End of Money?
* I started Monday in a large net long exposure
* Yesterday was a conundrum that may have provided an opportunity
* In response to the outsized market move, I ended Monday evening in a medium sized net long
* "Nothing's Gonna Change My Clothes" - staying flexible and opportunistic within the confines of my calculus of "fair market value"
* In the last three weeks's rise of 320 S&P handles, we have likely borrowed from further fourth quarter gains
* "Get Your Tongue Outta
My Mouth Cause I'm Kissing You Good-bye" - should the markets continue to advance from here I will do some more selling
Taken from the Comments Section tonite on @realmoney
This evening, as I reflected upon today's market action, I have to recognize that the market has fulfilled much of my optimistic and non consensus fourth quarter expectations in a relatively brief period of time
(of about three weeks).
This has served to stretch out the relation of price to "fair market value" - making the market, based on my calculus, statistically overpriced and stretched.
Moreover, the advance was once again concentrated in a handful of large cap tech market leaders
(several of which that I own) - which previously, in early September, marked a temporary market top.
Market breadth on the NYSE was only about 3-2 positive, disappointing relative to the S&P cash advance of sixty handles and the Nasdaq rise of 300 handles.
Today I sold out the
Oct 12, 2020 | 05:20 PM EDT DOUG KASS
Listen Up, Mouse Ears: I'm Calling an Audible on Disney
* I'm selling a portion of my position in the after hours
With Disney ($DIS) trading up $7.10 and over $132/share, I am moving my position from large- to medium-size.
To this observer, this is an outsized move relative to its actions (we will see better definition of the company's actions in early December).
In the past, some of Disney's moves have been feint-hearted -- so it is still unclear whether the company will move more aggressively by
starving broadcasting (networks and cable) and other legacy platforms at the expense of the streaming initiative.
By selling some now, I am making the bet that I will be able to buy back at lower prices -- just as I did in my ($SPY) long rental today. @jimcramer@tomkeene
Peggy Noonan of the WSJ (one of the most widely read conservative columnists) is predicting a Biden landslide: Biden, Pence and the Wish for Normalcy. Excerpt:
"But this is also the week that journalists and politicos in Washington began wondering about
something they never expected to be thinking about this year. They are wondering if Nov. 3 won’t be a win for Joe Biden but a blowout, a landslide in a polarized country that doesn’t produce landslides anymore.
It’s not only the past week’s events, not just the polls and their
consistency, their upward tick from a lead of 6 or 7 to a lead in some polls of double digits; it’s the data about women and voters over 65.
No one will talk about it in public because they’re not idiots. Journalists don’t want to be embarrassed if they’ve got it wrong; Democrats
Reality has begun to intrude into the Pres. contest. Despised by your own military leadership @realdonaldtrump lacks popularity and political skill. Save Fox he, contrasted to the world's strongmen, lacks power over the media (a media that has thrived during his Presidency).
As Ross Douthat writes, " A final pre-election case for understanding the president as a noisy weakling, not a budding autocrat." There is no longer concern about a wild resistance when Trump is defeated. What we are now seeing is a weak,
Kernan has explicitly and implicitly attacked me for five years.
I wrote to his boss (Mark Hoffman) on numerous occasions for an apology and for him to refrain from ad hominem attacks and repeated lies and non factual comments about me and my positions.
I tried to settle this by asking for an apology and for a guarantee that he would discontinue his crap. I have not heard back from Mark. While this is unfortunate, I am now free to speak my mind going forward. As Grandma Koufax used to tell me "Dougie he is screwing with the
wrong hombre." Many investment professionals dont publicly speak out about him (but many reach out to me and others) and his attacks because they want to have an opportunity to appear on @cnbc and @SquawkCNBC I understand their positions but I couldn't care less about appearing
There’s no literature or poetry in the White House. No music. No Kennedy Center award celebrations. There are no pets in this White House. No loyal man’s best friend. No Socks the family cat. No kids’ science fairs. No times when this president takes off his
blue suit-red tie uniform and becomes human, except when he puts on his white shirt-khaki pants uniform and hides from Americans to play golf. There are no images of the first family enjoying themselves together in a moment of relaxation. No Obamas on the beach in Hawaii moments,
or Bushes fishing in Kennebunkport, no Reagans on horseback, no Kennedys playing touch football on the Cape.
I was thinking the other day of the summer when George H couldn’t catch a fish and all the grandkids made signs and counted the fish-less days. And somehow, even if you
Coming up on @realmoney
Minding Mr. Market
* I remain bullish over the near term...
* And bearish over the intermediate term
* Wednesday's market was extraordinarily strong - likely characterized by a continued "offsides" position by a number of market participants
* I expect a smaller and targeted fiscal stimulus package in the next few days - but nothing close to the Democratic party's $2.2 trillion proposal
* While this normally would frighten the markets, with the growing likelihood of a "Blue Wave," the U.S. stock market will likely
Coming up on @realmoney
This is amazing....
An Eerily Prescient Surprise for 2020
* In January, before Covid-19 was a speck in our country's eyes, I warned about President Trump's health
In early January I delivered my annual 15 Surprises for 2020 realmoney.thestreet.com/dougs-daily-di….
My #1 Surprise (particularly this below) has proved eerily prescient:
"Under the weight of the pressure of running for reelection, a hectic travelling schedule and poor eating habits, President Trump's health catches up to him. A significant health problem is disclosed in the
"We wish him well because we are better than he is. We are better than the man who mocked Hunter Biden for his substance-abuse issues. We are better than the man who called NeverTrumpers “human scum.” We are better than the man who wants to put his political
opponents in jail. We are better than the man who publicly humiliates his own advisers. We are better than the man who demeaned the gold-star parents of a fallen soldier. We are better than the man who pantomimed the physical disabilities of a reporter. We are better than the
man who stiffs his suppliers and swindles his “students.” We are better than the man who uses his celebrity to grope. We are better than the man who took a bone-spur draft deferment so that he could live to denigrate the courage of prisoners of war. We are better than the man
There is so much protocol and movement of others involved with this move out of his hospital room to an automobile waving to his base. He is not thinking about security or health - as always, he thinks about himself and his campaign. If any patient in a hospital in the US with
Covid decided to venture out of that hospital...they would be restrained by psychiatrists. If the @realdonaldtrump supporters out there believe I and others have TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome) I respond .. that you all have TAC (Trump Acceptance Syndrome). And that is far
more dangerous than TDS as TAC puts the health of Americans at risk and has contributed to 210k US deaths already. Trump sees everything thru his political lens - and that stands before our well being and health. There are neurological ramification of Covid and perhaps we are
Written nearly twelve months ago my 15 Surprises for 2020 on @realmoney focused on President Trump.
It was my #1 Surprise and included an easy Biden win over other Dem nominees, a surprisingly large electoral college win over @realdonaldtrump who experienced a significant
health problem that sidelined him from participating in campaigning for a period of time.
The ultimate outcome: "In December, 2020, President Trump announces his plans to launch Trump TV. Sean Hannity leaves Fox News - assuming a duel role as CEO of Trump TV as well as the
Lifelong Republican Steve Schmidt, Founder of The Lincoln Project, nails it:
I wish Trump and Melania an expeditious recovery and hope very much that they will be in good health as they face electoral humiliation, repudiation and the harsh judgement of the
American people on Election Day. Trump’s lying has become one of the most lethal events in our nation’s history. If US mortality rates were what they are in Germany, more than 150,000 Americans would still be alive. Trump’s cruel disregard for the American people has ravaged our
economy, our kid’s educations and fundamental elements of the American way of life.
There is no person in America that has done more to spread Covid than @realDonaldTrump and no one has tried harder to catch it. Trump couldn’t have been more personally reckless than if he went to
@realdonaldtrump A cavallier Administration, given a series of crucial choices — whether to heed his nationalist and protectionist impulses or his “don’t spook the stock market” biases, whether to listen to his germaphobia or his apparent fear of looking unmanly in a mask —
consistently chose wrongly when they could have chosen wisely. Trump went by his own choices from being a president who had an unique historical opportunity to vindicate his professed worldview to a president who is now infected with the very virus that is dooming
his re-election bid. The president does not, to put it mildly, resemble the tragic heroes familiar from Aeschylus or Shakespeare. But he has a little more in common with some of the flawed, arrogant, appetitive figures from the Hebrew Bible — figures who are given opportunities
@realDonaldTrump In the arc of history Trump was granted a unique chance of heroism. Providence granted Trump, a flawed sinner, a chance at greatness. He chose badly and let it pass him by.
It is almost a Shakespearean drama, his illness just seems to emphasize that we are
inside the falling action of a play - the working out of
choices and themes that were established months ago.
While we pray for his quick recovery - his failing action in the 2020 drama could have spared lives.
However, we cannot behave as though life isn’t just one accident after another, as though narrative lines in history actually exist, as though our choices are woven into patterns and not just left to unspool randomly.
@realDonaldTrump "It Is What It Is"
Hope Hicks was likely infected 4-6 days before she had symptoms on Wednesday. There may be other White House staff who were and are asymptomatic carriers. Hicks, Donald, Melania, and God knows who else were highly infectious for at least two
days b4 they tested positive. So we're talking about the better part of a week in which they were interacting, in close proximity, without masks, with: family, friends, the entire White House staff, the Cabinet, the press corps, members of Congress, Senators, and AMY BARRETT
cause they might as well endanger the third branch of our national government). The seat of our government may very well have created a super-spreader event that will play out over the next few weeks or months. The contact-tracing effort now underway will be similar in scope to
Here is what you missed on @realmoney yesterday
Oct 01, 2020 | 12:30 PM EDT DOUG KASS
I always watch the markets like a hawk, especially when I am trading actively.
Based on the last few days of trading -- coupled with my view that a stimulus deal may not occur over
the short term -- I increasingly feel that the near term demand for equities seems sated.
My confidence level is not high - but, in light of the magnitude of the recent move higher (nearly 160 S&P points in a few