Some red flags in recent polls on #covid19 in the US.

@pewresearch reports more of the public now believes the outbreak has been made “a bigger deal than it really is.” 63% of Republicans (38% of all US adults) felt this way, up significantly from April journalism.org/2020/06/29/thr…
More Americans say it is now *harder* to identify facts about coronavirus than in the first weeks of the pandemic. Also, more believe media/news on the virus is *more partisan* than it was at the start: 41% saying it is more partisan now vs 22% saying partisanship has lessened.
.@KFF polling has found a much larger share of the US public reported leaving the house in June compared to April. For example, over half (54%) of Americans reported visiting friends and family in June compared to 30% back in April. kff.org/report-section… Image
In fact, many more Americans believe the worst of the pandemic is already behind us. "40 percent of Americans now believe the worst of Covid-19 is in the past, up from 26 percent in early April." This includes 61% of Republicans.
vox.com/policy-and-pol…
.@KHNews reported on problems with misinformation and partisanship, with Americans increasingly rejecting info that doesn’t match their leanings. For example, Republicans are now more likely to believe covid “was never a threat and that the worst is over.” khn.org/news/conflicti…
The reporting finds older Americans in particular experience a “perfect storm” when it comes to the virus: higher susceptibility and also a higher rate of being “targets of misinformation and online scams” than younger people, which further erodes trust and complicates messaging.
The Pew survey highlighted the extent of misinformation penetration, reporting a large majority of Americans heard the conspiracy theory that powerful individuals intentionally created the pandemic, and 36% of those who heard of the theory think it is probably or definitely true. Image
So, it's concerning we’re seeing a combination of decreasing worries about covid, growing confusion, and more partisanship and confusion about what constitutes “truth”, all at moment when is a marked increase in covid cases in a majority of US states. kff.org/coronavirus-co… Image
If case numbers continue to escalate it could reverse some of these trends, with the effects of the virus more plainly in view across the country (much of this polling was done prior to the major increases we’ve seen over the last two weeks). Still, that’s certainly not a given.

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More from @joshmich

19 Jan
30% of Israel's population has received at least 1 dose of Covid-19 vaccine, but no indications yet that case numbers are coming down there (chart).

A few reasons why this might be:

1) Cases reported now were infected 7+ days ago, when vaccinations were lower Image
2) Less than 500,000 (out of ~2.7 M vaccinated) have so far received a 2nd dose. A single dose is "less effective than we hoped" in providing protection, according to Israeli health leaders.
theguardian.com/world/2021/jan…
3) Israel has vaccinated by age, starting with older persons, vaccinating to date:
80% of 70+
68% of 60-69
50% of 50-59
28% 40-49

Older ages are protected from severe disease, but younger ages typically contribute most to transmission
timesofisrael.com/israelis-aged-…
Read 6 tweets
9 Jan
Beyond the scientific and epidemiological reasons to doubt the lab escape theory of pandemic origin, let’s not forget that no US or allied intelligence has emerged with even a whiff of evidence that a lab was the origin by accident or intention.
To believe the lab escape theory you also have to believe the Chinese have mounted a successful, extended campaign to eliminate incriminating evidence and muzzle officials and scientists who knew or might have suspected it came from a lab.
It’s a pretty big secret to hold on to, especially for a sizeable group of people that includes an international network of scientists, other workers, and families -- many of whom are not exactly in the secrecy business.
Read 17 tweets
1 Jan
That the US might adopt a 1 dose regimen or significantly delayed 2nd dose for vaccines already authorized seems more fanciful thought experiment than tractable policy. Pretty much all institutions and incentives are lined up against such a change and not without reason.
Current vaccines are authorized via EUAs from FDA, which both clearly state terms of use including a two-dose regimen. Moderna’s EUA says the vaccine is “administered as a series of two doses 1 month apart…”
“…Individuals who have received one dose of Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine should receive a second dose of Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine to complete the vaccination series.”
modernatx.com/covid19vaccine…
Read 20 tweets
31 Dec 20
CDC now provides more data on vaccine distribution and administration by state, agency, etc. Worth a look and a bookmark.

A few things that jumped out to me, in a short thread.

covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
2.17 million doses distributed through the federal pharmacy partnership prgm for long-term care, but only 167,149, or 7.8%, administered. This is the phase 1a component that needs to make up the most ground.

If this program were a state, it would easily be the worst performer.
States/jurisdictions' overall progress in administering the vaccines they have received continues to vary widely.

DC has administered over 50% of its vaccines on hand, while Kansas has administered just over 10%.
Read 6 tweets
30 Dec 20
Worth noting that Kathleen Hicks, President-elect Biden's pick for the number 2 spot at the Pentagon, would be that unusual senior defense official with some background in global health, as it relates to national security.
She's co-authored reports on the Department of Defense and global health, such as this one from 2009
csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/le…
From that report: If "virulent diseases can destabilize economies and entire political systems, then it is in the national security interest of the US to address the causes of diseases and develop effective systems to detect and contain them."
Read 6 tweets
22 Dec 20
You may have seen CDC reporting 4.6 million doses of #COVID19 vaccine have been distributed & 614,117 administered. Why the huge gap between doses distributed vs administered numbers? (short thread)
Some of the gap is from reporting lag: it can take up to 3 days for providers distributing the vaccine to report to state/local health officials, and additional time for officials to report to CDC
covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
Also, doses distributed to states have been held for use in long-term care facilities via the federal pharmacy partnership, which is only now starting to ramp up. Its goal is to reach 4.5 million residents and staff at 55,000 nursing homes nationwide
foxnews.com/health/nursing…
Read 8 tweets

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