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Will #HagiaSophia #Ayasofya become a mosque? This is about the fortieth time this has been discussed since I joined twitter, but...

I'm starting to think they may do it this time around....

A short thread on why.
1. The inevitable cries of protest from abroad will lose some of their sting in light of the coronavirus crisis. Turkey's cultural tourism trade is already shot for at least a year. A boycott by a handful of countries is not going to make it significantly worse.
2. In the meantime, if the museum *is* converted to a mosque there will certainly be steps taken to preserve (and present to tourists, when they return) the works of arts therein.
2 (con't) I haven't been to the Haghia Sophia in Trabzon since it was converted to a mosque but there is apparently a system of "curtains" that allow tourists to view its remarkable frescoes, but cover them during prayer times.
3. As others have noted, the AKP's popularity is apparently low. Cultural wars over symbols - plus a little standing tall against the foreigners - won't do the party any harm. It sharpens their brand.
4. Let's face it.... this is not a huge issue for most Turkish citizens regardless of political affiliation. It sharpens the AKP's prestige with its base in moderate sort of ways. The folks who are upset were unlikely to vote AKP anyway.
All that said, I wouldn't bet the farm either way on this. I think the chances of Turkey taking the plunge this time around are higher than they were previously. But the AKP could also just keep milking the issue through threats and promises for the next decade. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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