Thread by @DavidPepper

THREAD on Trump's Ohio Panic (and how you can help)

Trump is angry. He's frustrated.

Yes, he’s always that way. But he’s really angry & frustrated now

Because he’s burning through $18M just to try to stop his steep drop in Ohio.

1/

politicususa.com/2020/06/29/the…

That’s a lot of money.

And it also means that nothing he’s done for the past year has worked in Ohio.

They’ve done everything they can to stop the bleeding in Ohio. And they’re failing.

And if they lose Ohio, it’s all over for Trump.

2/

In 2019, he visited Ohio as much as any state (at least, where he doesn’t own a golf course).

But that didn’t help him.

3/

cleveland.com/open/2020/01/t…

He started putting money on TV more than a month ago.

In Ohio! In June!

A sign of worry.

But all that money's gone, and it didn't help him.

4/

toledoblade.com/local/politics…

He recently sent @Mike_Pence back to the Valley, to pretend that they didn’t mismanage the disastrous shutdown of GM’s Lordstown.

But telling people that Trump had kept all his promises there was a disaster. Better not to have come at all!

5/

cleveland.com/open/2020/06/m…

As with Lordstown, Trump's angry because his economic growth argument doesn’t work in Ohio.

2019 was Ohio's worst jobs year since 2009.

Ohio lost jobs from Jan. 2019-Jan., 2020, including in manufacturing and construction. Farms are struggling too

6/

ohiodems.org/ohio-lost-1250…

Trump must be looking at @parscale right now, and asking: but what about the suburbs of Ohio's major cities? Aren’t they really Republican there? Isn’t that where Bush and Romney won big?

And the answer is: Yes. They WERE red. But now they’re blue.

8/

They’re so blue that at every level, from statehouse to city council to mayor, Democrats are winning the places that Republicans used to dominate--that used to be the GOP base.

Together, these communities are now Ohio's largest voting bloc.

9/

medium.com/@ohdems/buildi…

So then Trump must be looking at @parscale and asking, but what about all those small towns I won by so much in 2016? They're still with me, right?

And the answer is: sure, some are....

10/

But others? Not so much.

Many aren’t seeing anything from your term but a bunch of tweets. They want something new.

So in 2019, from Ironton to Coshocton to Norwalk to Archbold (towns Trump won by a lot in 2016) Dems ousted GOP incumbent mayors.

11/

irontontribune.com/2019/11/06/cra…

And no, these were not close Dem victories.

They were blowouts. 60-40, 70-30, or better. In places Trump had generally won 60-40 or better in 2016.

Huge shifts in the heart of red Ohio.

12/

medium.com/@ohdems/buildi…

So no doubt Trump is looking at @parscale and asking: but isn’t Ohio so red? They send 12 Republicans to the US House and only 4 Democrats. And their statehouse is mostly Republican, right?

13/

And the answer is: well, don’t read too much into that. That’s gerrymandering

The truth is that Ohioans voted 52%-48% (R-D) for Congress in 2019. 50-49 for statehouse. They reelected @SenSherrodBrown by 7 & flipped 2 Supreme Court seats

The rigged districts hide all that

14/

Trump must then ask @parscale : but aren’t Dems beat down in Ohio? Don’t we way outnumber them?

The answer? Nope.

The recent primary was the first time since 2008 where more Democrats showed up than Republicans. By a lot. And all over the state.

15/

ohiodems.org/icymi-democrat…

Trump then must ask @parscale - OK, but won't Ohioans like my push on confederate statues? That'll help there, right?

The answer: hell no. Ohio is the proud birthplace of Unconditional Surrender Grant & William Sherman. That’s who Ohio celebrates

16/

usgrantbirthplace.org

Little Cadiz, in Eastern Ohio, is proud to be the birthplace of John Bingham, the author of the 14th Amendment.

A statue stands there in his honor today.

17/

harrisonnewsherald.com/?p=18626

Ohioans in river towns like Cincinnati and Ripley stood watch to help escaping slaves cross the Ohio River, then shepherded them to safe houses throughout Ohio.

Ohioans in big cities and small towns are proud of THAT heritage.

18/

ohiohistory.org/visit/museum-a…

Trump must then ask @parscale : but Ohio has a lot of veterans. They’re with me, right?

The answer: yes and no.

Ohio is the proud home to a huge number of veterans.

But Ohioans know what veterans and leaders who support them look like.

19/

They've known leaders like John Glenn, who not only fought for our country, but supported out troops when they're in harm's way.

They support veterans in office like @EricaCCrawley and @RepWeinstein and candidates like @HillaryMueri

20/

blogs.va.gov/VAntage/33458/…

So with everything he's trying having failed--his tactics, his visits, his messages all not resonating here--Trump is stuck.

He’s losing Ohio.

And if he loses Ohio, he’s done.

21/

politico.com/news/2020/06/2…

So now he’s doing what he never thought he’d have to do—spend millions and millions on television to try to stop the bleeding.

To try to get Ohio voters back in his column.

It's a good sign, but a lot of money. And a lot of false ads.

Which is where you come in....

22/

We at the @ohdems need to keep fighting back, like we have successfully for the past two years.

To stay ahead here, we need your help.

Nothing Trump is doing is working here. So far.

But $18m is a hell of a lot of money.

23/

We don't need as much as that, but we need enough to fight back through digital ads, through organizing, and through the most robust vote-by-mail effort this state has ever seen.

24/

secure.actblue.com/donate/2020-su…

So please consider giving whatever you can today.

Help us fight back against this $18M onslaught.

It shows panic in the Trump campaign. But we still need every penny you can muster to keep fighting, successfully, to turn Ohio blue.

secure.actblue.com/donate/2020-su…