Here we go. We added 4.8 million jobs in June, but our jobs level remains in absolute crisis—we lost so many jobs in March and April that we are still 14.7 million jobs below where we were in February. 1/
And it appears the strong improvement of the last two months may not last. The reference period for the jobs survey was mid-June, just before COVID cases began to spike. We are already hearing reports of people being laid off for the second time. 2/
Unemp Insurance data since the mid-June reference week indeed show historically high initial claims: 2.3 million for the week ending June 27 (incl. both regular state UI & PUA), the 15th week in a row w/ claims more than twice as high as the worst week of the Great Recession. 3/
So, to quickly summarize today’s data releases: we saw improvement in June, but there is an enormous remaining jobs deficit, and a great deal of pain on the horizon. Congress needs to act. 4/
In the rest of this thread I will go more in depth on the data releases (the June jobs data, and the UI data). 5/
The official unemployment rate was 11.1% in June, a welcome improvement from the last two months—but aside from April and May, it’s still higher than any unemployment rate we’ve seen since the Great Depression. 6/
And of course, the unemployment rate is not reflecting all coronavirus-related job losses. In June, there were 17.8 million workers who were officially unemployed… 7/
and there were an additional 2.0 million workers who were temporarily unemployed but who were being misclassified as “employed not a work.” There were also 5.0 million who were out of work as a result of the virus but were being counted as having dropped out of the labor force.8/
Altogether, that is 24.7 million workers who were either officially unemployed or otherwise out of work as a result of the virus. If all these workers were taken into account, the unemployment rate would have been 15.0% in June. 9/
Further, nearly 2/3rds of those workers don't have a job to go back to. The unemp rate that includes only those who don’t have a reasonable chance of being called back to a prior job is 9.3%. (The method for this calculation is in the attached link). 10/ epi.org/blog/nearly-11…
None of that means @BLS_gov is cooking the books! I know this administration has shown over and over they will lie about facts and numbers. But that isn’t happening at BLS. BLS has only one political appointee, and their methods are extremely transparent and consistent. 11/
In June, the official white unemployment rate was 10.1%, while the Black unemployment rate was 15.4% and the Hispanic unemployment rate was 14.5%. 12/
Our history—and present—of white supremacy dramatically affect the labor market. B/c of things like occupational segregation, discrimination, & other disparities rooted in systemic racism, recessions hit Black workers harder than white workers. 13/ epi.org/publication/bl…
Unemployment is hitting women hard than men in this recession, and for Black and Hispanic women, unemployment rates are extremely high. The unemployment rate is 14.6% for Black women and 16.1% for Hispanic women. 14/
However, Black men’s unemployment rate was even higher in June, at 16.4%, and saw a big increase (note, the rates by gender and race for age 16+ in this tweet and the prior one are only available on a not-seasonally-adjusted basis). 15/
Many people who have hung on to their jobs have seen their hours cut. The number of workers who want full-time hours but are working part-time b/c their employer doesn’t have enough work for them, at 7.9 million, is still nearly triple what it was in June, 2.8 million. 16/
One deeply concerning things in these numbers is that we are down 1.5 million state and local government jobs since February—nearly two-thirds of them (925,000) in education. 17/
(Note, because of seasonal adjustment issues right now, monthly changes in state and local government jobs are distorted and should be ignored—we should instead look at net changes since the pre-virus period, like in the above tweet.) 18/
Another thing: average wages have grown sharply year-over-year. This is NOT good news—it’s because low-wage workers have seen much more job loss (i.e. it’s composition, not people getting big raises). 19/
How do June’s jobs numbers square with June’s unemployment insurance (UI) claims? As mentioned above, the jobs data show that as of mid-June, there were 24.7 million workers who were either officially unemployed or otherwise out of work as a result of the virus... 20/
And the unemployment insurance claims data show that as of June 13, there were 31.5 million workers claiming unemployment benefits in all programs. 21/ 
The direct comparison of the two numbers (24.7 million and 31.5 million) suggests that more than 100% of people who are out of work as a result of the virus are on UI. However, some part-time workers are on UI, but they aren’t counted in the 24.5 million. 22/
It is also likely that there is some double-counting of benefits claims. But nevertheless, it’s clear a large share of people who are out of work as a result of the virus are on unemployment insurance, and that’s very good news for those workers and for the economy. 23/
The chart above only covers continuing claims through June 13, but we can combine the most recent data on both continuing claims and initial claims to get a measure of the total number of people “on” unemployment benefits as of June 27. See next tweet… 24/
Right now, DOL reports that 35.0 million workers are either on unemployment benefits, have been approved and are waiting for benefits, or have applied very recently and are waiting to get approved. There may be some double counting, but that’s more than 1 in 5 workers. 25/
Some are saying that today’s jobs numbers mean Congress doesn’t need to do more. This is deeply misguided. Glaring signs point to things slowing down, and we have only filled in *one-third* of the jobs lost in April and May. 26/
The relief and recovery packages passed so far are not enough, and more aid is crucial. The next package must provide a huge amount of aid to state and local governments, without which the recovery from this recession will be delayed for YEARS. 27/ epi.org/blog/without-f…
The next package should also invest in unemployment insurance, including extending the across-the-board $600 increase in weekly benefits, which should be phased out slowly as the unemployment rate or the employment-to-population ratio approach pre-recession levels. 28/
Letting the $600 expire this month would be a disaster for UI recipients, who would have to drastically cut their spending, and for the macro economy, which is being held afloat by this spending. Allowing it to expire would cost over 5 million jobs. 29/ epi.org/blog/cutting-o…
None of the COVID measures passed by Congress have provided meaningful protections for workers. Congress must ensure workers receive adequate health and safety protections, both for the welfare of workers AND to make a successful reopening possible. 30/ epi.org/blog/congress-…
Here's our write-up (it overlaps a ton with this thread). 31/
epi.org/press/two-mont…
epi.org/press/two-mont…
Data show that in CA, 12.3% of people on UI are reporting some earnings (Partial UI). If that holds nationally, it would explain a huge part of the issue described above that there are more people on UI than are out of work as a result of the virus. 32/
