Trump’s claim that he would exempt overtime from taxes is deeply unserious. This policy would be incredibly easy to game. How? 1/ Employers could (and would) easily switch salaried, overtime-ineligible workers to hourly—and set the hourly wage so that, with overtime, they are paying no more than they paid before—and allow their workers to get the tax cut. 2/

The immigrant share of the labor force reached a record high of 18.6% in 2023. As a result, anti-immigration forces have been out in full force with a deeply misguided chorus of “immigrants are taking all our jobs.” Here are some key facts, to set the record straight. 1/ The unemployment rate for U.S.-born workers averaged 3.6% in 2023, the lowest rate on record. Obviously, immigration is not causing high unemployment among US-born workers. 2/

The #UnionMembership numbers from 2023 were released this morning by @BLS_gov, showing that unionization increased by 191,000 in 2023. There are now 16.2 million workers represented by a union in the U.S. 1/ While union levels increased by 191,000, the share of workers represented by a union declined from 11.3% to 11.2%. There was very strong job growth in 2023 and unionization efforts simply couldn’t keep up with all the new jobs being added. 2/

Union membership numbers from 2022 were released this morning by @BLS_gov, showing that 200,000 more workers were represented by a union in 2022 than in 2021. There are now more than 16 million workers represented by a union in the U.S. 1/ However, MORE THAN 60 MILLION WORKERS WANTED TO JOIN A UNION, AND COULDN’T. How do we know that? Survey data show that 48% of nonunion workers—more than 60 million workers—would vote for a union in their workplace if they could. 2/

This morning the @FTC released a proposed rule that, if finalized, will ban noncompete agreements. It is REALLY good. 1/ nytimes.com/2023/01/05/bus… Why do we need this rule? The only source of power nonunionized workers have vis-à-vis their employers is their ability to quit and take a job elsewhere. So, SURPRISE, employers are using noncompete agreements to cut that source of worker power off at knees. 2/

We added 372,000 jobs in June, bringing the three-month average to 375,000. This is down from the blistering average pace of 561,000 per month for the 12 months ending in February of this year. Job growth remains very strong, but is clearly moderating. 1/ Wage growth is also clearly decelerating, which is enormously consequential for fed policy. Quarterly wage growth ticked down in June and has dropped substantially in recent months. It is now near its pre-COVID range. 2/

The latest version of the claim “we can’t have nice things because inflation” is the idea that we can’t cancel federal student debt because... it will cause inflation. PEOPLE NO. 1/ crfb.org/blogs/cancelli… First, what is the argument of those who are making this claim? The (theoretical) idea is that not having debt payments will unleash spending on goods and services by those who had those debt payments forgiven, boosting inflation. 2/

We added 431,000 jobs in March, for a total of 8.4 million jobs added since the end of 2020. It’s mindbogglingly fast and sustained growth—well over half a million jobs added per month on average for 15 months. 1/ The speed at which prime age EPOP is recovering is kind of breathtaking. 2/

We added 678,000 jobs in February, for a total of 7.9 million jobs added since the end of 2020. It’s mindbogglingly fast and sustained growth—well over half a million jobs added per month on average for more than a year. 1/ At this point, more than 9 out of every 10 jobs lost during the recession have been regained. The first thing I did when I saw today’s numbers was to slack @eliselgould “my god this recovery is insanely strong.” 2/

Job growth picked up in October to 531,000, and upward revisions to prior data put the three-month average at 442,000. That is lower than the pre-delta period—job growth averaged 710,000 per month in the six months before delta—but it’s very strong growth. 1/ Worth noting: slower job growth in the delta-period has been accompanied by slower wage growth in most industries. 2/

The labor market added 943,000 jobs in July, huge job growth far surpassing expectations. There were also upward revisions to earlier data, bringing the three month average to 832,000, also huge. 1/ There is still a big gap in the labor market, but even with some slowing from this pace of job growth, we will be back to pre-COVID health by the end of 2022—a recovery *five times* as fast as the recovery following the Great Recession, thanks to the vaccine and to the ARP. 2/

This chart shows continuing claims for unemployment insurance (UI) in all programs (the latest data available for this, released this morning, are from the week ending June 6th). Three-quarters of people on UI are on the pandemic programs Congress created (PUA and PEUC). 1/ Total continuing claims held steady in the latest data but are generally steadily declining—the 4-wk moving average declined by 280,000 and has come down by 4.4 million in just the last three months. However, it’s still roughly 13.5 million above where it was before COVID. 2/

The labor market added 559,000 jobs in May, very strong growth in line with expectations. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.8%, and most of that drop was for “good” reasons, people getting jobs. 1/ However, we still have 7.6 million fewer jobs than we did before the recession, in February 2020. 2/

Last week 461,000 people applied for UI. This included 385,000 who applied for regular state UI (seasonally adjusted) and 76,000 who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). 1/ dol.gov/ui/data.pdf Claims are steadily coming down as the labor market strengthens. The 461,000 who applied for UI last week was a decrease of 37,000 from the prior week. The 4-week moving average of total initial claims also decreased by 37,000. 2/

Talk of labor shortages is everywhere. What is really going on? A thread. 1/ Before the April jobs data were released last Friday, the data did not point to widespread labor shortages. But the April data—while still not pointing to *widespread* labor shortages—are indeed flashing shortages in isolated sectors. 2/

The labor market added 266,000 jobs in April, solid growth but far below expectations. Growth in March was also revised down. Further, we still have 8.2 million fewer jobs than we did before the recession, in February 2020. 1/ And, that 8.2 million is not the total gap in the labor market. Pre-COVID, we were adding about 200,000 jobs a month. At that pace, we would have added 2.8 million jobs in the last 14 months, so the total gap in the labor market right now is around 8.2 + 2.8 = 11 million jobs. 2/

Last week 599,000 people applied for UI. This included 498,000 who applied for regular state UI (seasonally adjusted) and 101,000 who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). 1/ dol.gov/ui/data.pdf Claims are high but moving in the right direction. The 599,000 who applied for UI last week was a decrease of 112,000 from the prior week. The 4-week moving average of total initial claims decreased by 74,000. 2/

There are certainly a lot of anecdotal reports right now of employers not being able to find the workers they need, particularly in restaurants. But unemployment is still very elevated—particularly among restaurant workers. What’s going on? 1/ First, remember there is *always* a chorus of employers who claim they can’t find the employees they need. One reason for that is that in a system as large and complex as the U.S. labor market there will always be pockets of bona fide labor shortages at any given time. 2/

Welp I was just the person testifying at a congressional hearing who had to be told she was on mute. This is a hearing on the minimum wage and omg before this I had mistakenly let myself believe that the myth that min wage workers are teenagers had been debunked.

PEOPLE. Only ONE IN TEN workers who would benefit from a $15 min wage in 2025 are teenagers.

Today is the last #JobsDay with data from the Trump Administration (today’s data are from mid-January). So what does the economy former President Trump handed off to President Biden look like? It’s bleak. 1/ The labor market added just 49,000 jobs in January. And that's likely too rosy—given low seasonal hiring in the pandemic, seasonal adjustments likely made the December numbers look worse than they really were and are making the January numbers look better than they really are. 2/

Another 1.1 million people applied for UI last week, including 779,000 who applied for regular state UI and 349,000 who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). 1/ dol.gov/ui/data.pdf The 1.1 million who applied for UI last week was a decrease of 88,000 from the prior week, but the four-week moving average of total initial claims ticked up by 51,000. 2/