Anticipation of the demise of the Diab government strikes me as premature, and this for a few reasons: (1) No one in the political class wants a vacuum, so consensus over a new government has to be reached while the Diab government is still in office;
(2) Saad Hariri, the likely next PM, has "conditions" to return", which means that Hezbollah, by rejecting these conditions, can delay the fall of the Diab government if it wants; (3) the Hariri-Bassil reconciliation, a prerequisite for any new government, is not yet at fruition.
Diab is fighting for his life, however, and his efforts to make Nasrallah's "going East" proposition sound realistic (when no one takes it seriously), like his attacks against foreign embassies (implicitly including the U.S.), are ways of using the party to extend his longevity.
This means the political class is almost back, but not quite yet. Since last October its primary aim has been to ensure its own survival, not resolve the economic crisis. That's why optimists feel that if the politicians return, they may be better positioned to make concessions.
Pessimists feel that the political class is incapable of reform. The pessimism has usually been correct, but in this case the politicians are not focused on avoiding reform, but on reasserting their authority. Anyway, their corruption networks will die if no IMF deal is reached.
It would be very odd to see the politicians fighting to retain power, while at the same time pushing the Lebanese system toward complete collapse by rejecting an IMF deal. If the cartel wants to retain power, it means having a functioning system in which to exercise that power.
I'm increasingly convinced that the political class is integrating an IMF deal into their calculations to ensure their survival. Does that mean they embrace reform? No. But it does mean they can agree to concessions for a consensus that makes outside aid possible.
Berri's and Bassil's specific mention of an IMF deal yesterday was not fortuitous, I believe, and what Berri says is what he knows Hezbollah will accept. The politicians used parliament to neutralize the government reform program, which would have hit them and the banks.
They will put forward their own plan under a new government, with banks and the central bank, and in that way use an IMF agreement to begin reconsolidating their power, while making just enough concessions to allow foreign aid to come in. I suspect that is why Bifani resigned.
The Lebanese people will go along with it because they are too exhausted and impoverished to resist, and too divided. Plus, the political class will reassure Hezbollah that its arms won't be threatened, which is why the party will also allow an IMF deal to go through.
It's all very cynical and calculating, but the political class is manipulating fears of a total apocalypse among the Lebanese very ably, paving the way for their return and an IMF deal that will revive their fortunes. At least that's what I think, though I've often been wrong.
