Game theory in @ProfJNMoyo (and others) v State
1/ There is, indeed there should be, an end to the political games between the State (read @edmnangagwa) and Jonso and his so-called G40 allies who are accused of being fugitives but whose real crime is opposing the status quo...
1/ There is, indeed there should be, an end to the political games between the State (read @edmnangagwa) and Jonso and his so-called G40 allies who are accused of being fugitives but whose real crime is opposing the status quo...
2/For the record, the most prominent members of the G40 also include @Hon_Kasukuwere @PatrickZhuwao #GraceMugabe #MandiChimene #SarahMahoka #JeppyJaboon #GodfreyGandawa, among others who coalesced around ex President Mugabe before he was removed in a coup in 2017....
3/ The grouping has suffered various pogroms ranging from near assasinations to loss of property such as farms and positions within the ruling party, @ZANUPF_Official. More poignantly, some like @ProfJNMoyo have been exiled and apparently fear for their lives both home and abroad
4/The State (read @edmnangagwa ) has held criminal charges and other allegations as the proverbial Axe of Damocles, implying that these individuals stand to be arrested and persecuted if they are caught. This in turn, has kept the G40 away - for now...
5/ An interesting and instructive case though, is that of @Hon_Kasukuwere who once came back and faced a lesser charge of illegal exit from the country before other weightier cases came before the courts - and won. Still, Tyson appears hesitant to come home despite throwing hints
6/The @Hon_Kasukuwere case is important to this thesis as I consider the Game Theory. In essence, the following elements are relevant
•Game: Political circumstances that now depend on actors
•Players: The actors/strategic decision-maker
•Strategy: The complete plan of action
•Game: Political circumstances that now depend on actors
•Players: The actors/strategic decision-maker
•Strategy: The complete plan of action
7/The above constellation of forces or arguable matrix is self explanatory. As indeed, the long drawn out political game, that must now be precipitated towards a crisis before a resolution. The story in @HeraldZimbabwe today is a small window into the tactics of the State...
8/ So what are options available for @ProfJNMoyo as part of strategy to confront the beast and hegemon in Harare? Without oversimplifying the matter, I want to posit that Jonso has only ONE option (and half)! This will change the game and players in the process.
9/ @ProfJNMoyo should COME HOME - and take life assurance before he does (he may choose not to, it's the half option). This strategy is important in a number of key ways not least, stopping the bullying and braggadocio of @edmnangagwa and co. The following are the circumstances:
10/ The objective facts are that @ProfJNMoyo is facing charges, jointly with others, of fraud amounting to just about USD200K and no other charges have been brought to light at this point, and this doesn't mean that they are not there. The charges have not been tested in Court.
11/Again without oversimplifying the matter, these charges are not the worst anyone could face before Zimbabwe's laws. Additionally, the courts in the country have maintained a balance of decency and having a high profile case before them means they are open to more scrutiny...
12/ In this schema, @ProfJNMoyo whether he comes of his own volition or is extradited or - to use a more sinister term, renditioned - is likely to drop off the airport, straight to Court and Chikurubi, but the process is not going to last forever...
13/ The real fear is not that that the former Minister will not receive a fair trial but that he can be killed or harmed while in custody or detention. This is why he must budget for life assurance!
14/ There are a lot of scenarios that flow from this: a) @ProfJNMoyo receives a full trial and is either convicted or acquitted; b)his trial is a sham and persecution; c)his is harmed or killed while in prison
15/ The last scenario is the worst and most dramatic. It therefore means that the strategy by the Jonso and or his G40 must be predicated on raising the cost of @edmnangagwa tyranny, real or imagined, and could do mostly in concert as the persecuted cohort...
16/These scenarios are critical in raising political temperatures and energise latent bases in @ZANUPF_Official aided in small part if the mainstream opposition @mdczimbabwe adds its voice and weight to the particular persecuted citizens. This implies need for SACRIFICE...
17/ Lastly, within the context of the ongoing winter of discontent with the rule of @edmnangagwa there is critical need for certain actions to get the nation and world excited again with Zimbabwean politics, and the return of @ProfJNMoyo and @Hon_Kasukuwere could be decisive. 🤸
