Economists define 3 main forms of unemployment: frictional (what happens when you move btw jobs); structural (when you lose your job because your industry is now defunct); and cyclical (when you’re fired because of a recession). In Singapore, the latter two are more relevant. Image
The latter 2 are the forms that are targeted by a redundancy insurance (RI) scheme, which seeks to cushion the effects of involuntary job loss. RI works via risk pooling: with job displacements (and RI payouts) occurring at different times, the common cash pool remains liquid.
In addition to income replacement (which is often partial, to retain the incentive for job seeking, and also for financial sustainability), RI can reduce the psychic sense of insecurity that results from losing one’s job (which can also promote entrepreneurial risk taking).
RI can always be a private sector-led initiative, of course. But a single-payer structure (with govt as lead) allows efficient risk pooling & limits moral hazard (where people quit willy-nilly since they have a fallback) + adverse selection (where those with secure jobs opt out).
RI is actually remarkably common in countries worldwide, not just in the developed West; China, Japan, Korea, and Thailand have forms, as do Bahrain and Chile. Each system has different income replacement rates, benefits duration, qualifying criteria, and contribution rates.
The #workersparty manifesto for #ge2020sg proposes an RI scheme to supplement our other social safety net elements, such as min wages, maternal workforce reentry, and CPF usage reform. Our proposal will cost $4/mo, with a payout of 40%, ranging from $500 (min) and $1,200 (max).
Just as important, RI offers workers dignity as they transition away from employment, as well as peace of mind for those attempting to upgrade skills as they remain out of work. More here: wpsg.s3-ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/perspectives/W… #makeyourvotecount #workersparty

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More from @jamuslim

2 Sep 20
A free rider, as defined in economics, is an individual (or group) that reaps the benefits of the actions of others, without paying the cost (or underpaying for it). It is a form of market failure, and characterizes nonexcludable goods (those whose use cannot be restricted).
In his opening address to the 14th Parliament, PM Lee spoke of a number of issues. Many points he made were thoughtful, and drew on his deep experience in government, and as Prime Minister. I appreciated his insight and candor.
PM Lee also suggested (and I paraphrase) that the argument that voting for the opposition because others will still return the PAP to power is what the economist will associate with being a free rider.
Read 8 tweets
26 Jul 20
I spent the largest part of my professional career thus far at the @WorldBank. During that time, I was involved in formulating policy for a wide variety of nations, both democratic, and less so. So FWIW, here are some thoughts on the policymaking process in a democratic society.
For good or ill, decisions made by the majority (or representatives of that majority) apply to all citizens in the country. One may individually disagree. If so, the time to debate a policy’s merits is prior to enactment. But once policy becomes law, all are compelled to follow.
It would thus be profoundly undemocratic (and discriminatory) to apply a given policy selectively to a segment of the population, unless of course the segment were the explicit target of the policy (think maternity leave for mothers only, or min wages for the low-income only).
Read 11 tweets
14 Jul 20
There has been some pushback against the claim, from our #workersparty manifesto, that min wages is sound policy. Let me begin by emphasizing a position I've held from the start: min wages is not unabashedly good policy. But it is a good start that is also evidence-based.
In social sciences, there is seldom unambiguous evidence. Studies can yield different results, which is why continued research is important & policies should be based on the overall literature. That's why I mentioned that many papers since Card-Krueger corroborate its findings.
The best way to aggregate and evalute the totality of results is to rely on meta-analyses, which are studies of studies. Meta-analyses take the existing results out there, and ask if there are systematic conclusions we can draw from the literature. So let's look at these.
Read 13 tweets
8 Jul 20
One of the issues I have repeatedly raised in my campaign speeches this #GE2020SG has been the problem of stagnant productivity. I see poor productivity growth as the most critical economic challenge that the country will confront in the decades ahead. Why is this so important?
Because in the long run, the only way to ensure sustainable growth in our output and incomes per capita is through improvements in productivity. But because it is a technical subject, people tend to shy away from discussions about the matter. I think that this is a mistake.
It's useful to start with some definitions. The simplest definition of productivity is output per worker. So if I can make two hammers in an hour, and my colleague only makes one, I am twice as productive my coworker. All else equal, I should be paid twice as much in wages.
Read 15 tweets
3 Jul 20
One of the main policy positions the #workersparty is advancing this #ge2020sg is an objection to a GST hike, of 7 to 9 percent. It’s worth understanding why such a move would be an error, both in the shorter and longer run.
In the near term, a GST increase amounts to contractionary fiscal policy. If we believe that this could be a prolonged recession, a premature tightening of macro policy would short-circuit a nascent rebound, and the shock may even send the economy back into recession.
This largely describes the case of Japan, which has remained in a low-growth regime, and often fell into recession each time it either attempted to (or actually did) increase its consumption tax, ever since 1997. Consumption tax hikes may have well prolonged its lost decade(s).
Read 10 tweets
30 Jun 20
One of the policies that the #workersparty is advancing this #ge2020sg is the policy of a minimum wage. Many who are unfamiliar with this concept—or who only encounter this idea in intro econ texts—tend to reject it as an unnecessary gov intervention that would raise unemployment
I used to think that way. But since the work of Card-Krueger in the 1990s, economists’ understanding of the effects have evolved. Using modern econometrics, paper after paper has shown little to no employment losses from the intro of min wages & improvements in worker welfare
Of course, it would be absurd to argue that capacity to raise wages above prevailing levels is boundless. But real wage growth in Singapore over the past decade (1.9%) was outrun by real GDP growth over the same period (4.5%), meaning that there is slack for greater labor share
Read 7 tweets

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