my #WallStreetConsensus paper: escorting financial capital to SDG in Global South via (a) structural transformation of local financial systems and (b) state derisking PPP-based SDG assets (for demand, political, climate & liquidity risks)
on the empirical side, paper explores the new World Bank Infrastructure Sector Assessment Programs
(InfraSAPs) for Egypt, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Vietnam to document proposed engineering of 'developmental/SDG assets'
World Bank sees the COVID pandemic as a strategic opportunity for PPP-led infrastructure recovery plans, and is mobilising PPP offices in Global South for it
problem is that infrastructure PPPs around the world have been hit by demand risk, as you cannot charge user fees in lockdown.
WB answer: more derisking state, more infrastructure as an asset class, more #WallStreetConsensus
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#WallStreetConsensus flourishing in Brazil, pandemic be damned: highway PPP project signed in May 2020, financed by Singapore Sovereign Wealth Fund and Patria Investments (partly owned by Blackstone)
the largest PPP in Cameron, the Nachtigal Hydro Power Company - a great example of Maximising Finance for Development - has a legal contract of 141 pages.
and here is a distribution of risks, with the Government of Cameron (GoC) ticking a lot of boxes - the derisking state in action
and the World Bank's new Next Generation Africa Climate Business Plan (July 2020) hardwires #WallStreetConsensus logic via Maximising Finance for Development + Green and Resilient Infrastructure
this Afghanistan PPP will make for an interesting case study of derisking a World Bank promoted PPP
turns out what we really need to get trillions for public investment in SDGs is not elaborate financial engineering under #WallStreetConsensus, but euthanasia of the high-net worth individuals, via proper taxation regimes
in case you believed that COVID19 at least will give us better funded public health systems, think again: PPP practitioners around the world identify health as the most promising area post-pandemic
the environmental politics of the #WallStreetConsensus is to tie the hands of governments in the Global South either directly (environmental regulation = political risk) or indirectly (compensate PPP operators for new rules)
guess which continent is sinking more fiscal resources in guaranteeing profits for private energy sector: Africa.
And private sector there means European and US companies. #CompactWithAfrica
oh look, WB's COVID19 response is a rhapsody to PPPs h/t @ma_jose_romero
in #WallStreetConsensus language games: feminist PPP electrification 'ensures that women and men are equal participants in the new power systems that are established through the arrival of microgrids'
nothing on users fees in this promotional material
what Earthsparks means by derisking renewable energy is exactly what the World Bank's Maximising Finance for Development proposes - the derisking state
oh hello Wall Street Climate Consensus in Europe - didnt take long for World Bank to push PPP agenda in European Green Deal cc @nickshaxson@ma_jose_romero
Fernandez government in Argentina just rescinded two PPP contracts signed by Macri govt, documenting several irregularities through which private sector was milking public purse.
Jay Powell/ Fed have quietly caved to Trump. US central bank independence is now a smokescreen.
not because the Fed lowered interest rates yesterday, as Trump demanded.
Less publicised, but more important, is the Fed decision to purchase USD 40bn of Treasury bills monthly.
The Fed calls this Reserve Management Purchases but it's central bank support for government debt (and for Trump's policies more broadly), a form of monetary-fiscal coordination pervasive in the age of fiscal dominance after WW2.
How much is USD 40bn? Recall the recent hype around stablecoin issuers - the companies that Bessent claimed would strengthen US Treasury demand.
These bought USD 40 bn Treasuries over June 2024-June 2025. The Fed would buy in a month what Tether + Circle buy in a year.
Rentoul doesnt know it but his 'good grief' reflects a monetarist choice of Bank - government relationship.
popularised by Milton Fridman, monetarism wants central banks FULLY independent from democratic decisions.
before 2008, this divorce was fully operational
the monetarist divorce unravelled during the 2008 global financial crisis.
central banks HAD TO buy government bonds and stabilise the financial system because these bonds are the arteries of modern finance, without them, booom.
#WallStreetConsensus & its failure to mobilise trillions in @FT
4 things missing:
a) hegemonic dominance of 'mobilising private finance' in development/climate
b) asking why hegemony
c) mushrooming scaling up initiatives
d) do we want success?
a) Mobilising private finance remains global game - (Bridgetown, Biodiversity COP16, 4th Financing for Development conf) & national game (UK Labour gov, Brazil/Colombia/Chile decarbonisation).
*The world's most powerful political narrative that doesnt deliver
b) hegemonic not (just) because Big Finance is powerful, but postneoliberal, transformative state cant get rid of neoliberal macro - independent central bank dominating fiscal.
without macroinstitutional change- How do we pay for transformation- only one answer: private finance
when Big Finance occupies the state and takes over the social contract, nurses struggle, grandparents struggle, parents struggle, renters struggle, private equity flourishes.
no punches pulled on the Commission's Net Zero Industrial Act, the 2022 attempt to respond to Biden's Inflation Reduction Act with a lot of derisking talk but no money (ahem, European Sovereignty Fund)
Climate policy is industrial policy, and the other way around.
An important reminder that EU's climate policy was once ambitious, state-driven decarbonisation.
the Clean Energy Finance Authority would subsidize foreign demand for US cleantech - or derisk BlackRock renewable assets in say, Kenya with subsidies/guarantees.
nothing in this proposal from a top Kamala Harris advisor suggests US should enable technology transfers to countries wishing to pursue their own domestic cleantech capabilities.
in #WallStreetConsensus, Global South are consumers of American cleantech, with American dollars.