recall Bank of England had designed an innovative (if too gradual) Escalation framework for decarbonising its corporate bond portfolio before Bailey came in and run a QT tractor through it - @ecb is driving this forward
Jul 4 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
One for the series 'bad for Germany, good for Europe'?
Or at least, 'ordoliberals running scared from planning'.
there is a political struggle over a windfall tax in Argentina that would hit big farmers, weird how conservative the FT is in its reporting
Jun 12 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Brigitte Nyborg is dealing another blow to my faith in green social democracy, hello ecological Leninism.
granted Borgen is an uncanny depiction of post-Ukraine invasion fossil politics, but can we not have one menopausal heroine standing?
Jun 6 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
in shocking news, Big Finance will not decarbonise our economies, who could have guessed. ft.com/content/5ec1df…
👀👀👀 (oh, Jeremy Corbyn)
Jun 1 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Aliens from space trying to connect the first sentence to the second.
Friends, we in Europe tighten in a recession and pray to the Gods of our Holy Transmission Mechanism that benevolently ignores us again.
Apr 14 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
how to bury the lede in 'hard landing' inflation debates ft.com/content/02f751…
fascinating that this is a 'debate' when inflation targeting models are clear that interest rate responses to cost/supply shocks require the central bank to inflict a hard landing
Apr 4 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
I've read both Pozsar's latest note and @adam_tooze take on it, and I cannot see the analytical purchase of his framework, nor do I find the Bretton Woods III story plausible.
Bretton Woods III seems to be of a higher order than BWII, with China a contender to US by virtue of its commodity reserves (???)
Apr 4 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
your daily reminder that Europe doesnt have the right macrofinancial regime for the green transition
remarkable how the Wall Street Consensus is gaining ground in Europe since the Russian invasion.
here the European derisking state, in all its ordoliberal splendour, promising to derisk US LNG gas asset classes.
Mar 16 • 17 tweets • 5 min read
there are many facets to Westplaining, the least appreciated is where Westerners start with the 'local political chaos' to explain the failure of neoliberal shock therapy after 1990, when the causality runs the other way around.
and by 'failure', I mean failure to live up to the promises of a market paradise.
through political economy lens, shock therapy was remarkably successful at transforming Eastern European countries from competitors to markets and lands of cheap labour for Western capital.
Mar 16 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
you might think this is just Boris Johnson's predilection for authoritarian regimes
but it's macrofinancial ideology that is pushing the British government to go fishing for investments in renewable energies in Saudi Arabia
this is the logic of the Small Green State (aka green ordoliberalism on the continent, aka as Derisking State)
1. Organise the push for renewables via Carbon Contracts for Difference (derisk private investment in renewables). UK is at round 4, with GBP 200 million a year.
Mar 11 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
if Russia has given us the first ‘net zero price crisis’, bad news from central banks @ecb just showed us even those nominally committed to green transition will prioritise fighting the nebulous expectations fairies
in 'The Economic Consequences of Peace', Keynes denounced Treaty of Versailles for neglecting an equitable, effective & integrated European economic system.
today's Versailles Declaration - 'the Economic Consequences of War' for Europe disappoints too
the goals will not surprise anyone who's paid attention to the last 10 days
Mar 8 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
crazy story on the financialisation of nickel market - in many ways a warning that status-quo macrofinancial regime is just ill-suited for the age of climate-crises (h/t @M_PaulMcNamara)
if I understand correctly: a large Chinese nickel producer who planned to massively ramp up production took short nickel positions as protection against falling prices, (goodbye competitive market, nice knowing you).
Mar 7 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
what German word for when Russia's invasion of Ukraine puts state planning on the agenda, no less than in WSJ.
with @BJMbraun we've been preaching the gospel of the inevitability of Big Green State for a while now, but this is, shall we say, support from unexpected sources.
Mar 4 • 17 tweets • 5 min read
fascinating @adam_tooze on whether we'll see Russia abandon its Wall Street Consensus macrofinancial regime - fiscal austerity, floating exchange rate, domestic bond finance - that it deployed to accumulate a foreign reserves war chest.
if you dont care what foreign investors think of your macro stance, the world is your oyster.
Mar 3 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
if you were hoping that the silver lining of Russia's aggression is a new macrofinancial regime in Europe, sorry to disappoint.
the freshly minted revision to the European 'green, digital resilient and inclusive' Growth model is a lot more of the same ec.europa.eu/info/sites/def…
first, you want to window-dress the malfunctioning of the 'austerity first, mobilise private capital next' model - hello secondary axis.
1. set the Maastricht sacred cows free, forever out of sight 2. let @ecb work closely with governments to protect fiscal space 3. drop the 'mobilisation of private investment' language, time to discipline financiers into doing what we want, instead of bribing them.