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Marc Lipsitch

Jul 7, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X

@nature

Just learned from a good news article in @nature nature.com/articles/d4158… about this site metrics.covid19-analysis.org. To be crystal clear it has nothing to do with @CCDD_HSPH. It is not reasonable in my opinion to mske such estimates with any confidence for large parts of the world

The uncertainty stated on this site is purely statistical uncertainty assuming data and model are accurate. This _vastly_ understates uncertainty. In many places, case confirmation is delayed dramatically (weeks) & variably, but this assumes 5 days from infection to confirm'n.

Changing testing practices mean changing proportions of cases ascertained and thus changing estimates of cases and R separate for reality. No correction or acknowledgment of uncertainty.

While it is valuable to try to squeeze information from data, the level of confidence displayed on this site vastly overstates the level of confidence we should have in R(t) estimates even in places that do very good and consistent testing.

See this preprint for an effort to compile all the challenges and some possible solutions. Every issue raised here contributes uncertainty to every R(t) estimate. Taking a global data source and cranking the software on it is not a way to get at truth. medrxiv.org/content/10.110…

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More from @mlipsitch

Marc Lipsitch

@mlipsitch

Mar 8, 2023

@CDCgov

We are readvertising the opening for a branch chief in the Predict Division at the Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics @CDCgov usajobs.gov/job/711548000 If you applied previously and are NOT a US Govt employee PLEASE REAPPLY. New apps welcome too.

These are two positions to lead the Real Time Monitoring branch in Predict which will produce disease scenario models, forecasts, and nowcasts and the Analytic Response Branch producing custom analyses to aid specific decision making

We have begun building a great team to provide analytic advice to the US government and state and local partners. Looking for exceptional epidemiologists/disease data experts/modelers to lead these two teams.

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Marc Lipsitch

@mlipsitch

Jan 30, 2023

@CDCgov

Looking for leaders in infectious disease modeling and analytics for roles as Branch Chiefs in the Predict Division of @CDCgov Ctr for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics usajobs.gov/job/701324000 posted as Supervisory Data Scientist GS-15. Seeking great people to join a great team!

For those new to applying to federal jobs, follow the tips here dol.gov/agencies/ilab/… and be VERY explicit about how you meet each qualification so that an HR professional can verify you do.

Here is the one that is in the health scientist track -- same positions can be filled through either announcement usajobs.gov/job/703101000

Read 4 tweets

Marc Lipsitch

@mlipsitch

Oct 20, 2022

I’ve been saying that one flaw of the review system for ePPP experiments is that when scientists— for good scientific reasons— change their plans there is no review of the new plans once the original proposal approved. Case in point the Boston Pub Health Comm approved…

BU’s plans in March 2020. The experiment generating all the discussion could not have been planned then bc Omicron hadn’t been observed yet. Antigenic variability was still not a clear threat in most scientists’ minds Even the type of experiment may not have been conceived.

@CBSNews

cbsnews.com/news/boston-un… @CBSNews @Alexander_Tin

Read 4 tweets

Marc Lipsitch

@mlipsitch

Oct 19, 2022

So here's my take on the BU experiments. I know you can't say this on Twitter, but it is my current state of understanding, possibly imperfect, subject to revision with better understanding, and trying to make sense rather than condemn opponents.

First, these are unquestionably gain-of-function experiments. As many have noted, this is a very broad term encompassing many harmless and some potentially dangerous experiments. GOF is a scientific technique, not an epithet. The wildtype "backbone" virus gains immune escape...

...from the insertion of the Omicron spike, in ways that the paper describes in detail. That is gain-of-function.

Read 32 tweets

Marc Lipsitch

@mlipsitch

Jul 18, 2022

@CDCgov

Want to help shape US outbreak public health #RiskCommunications? More positions now open at the @CDCgov Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics in our Inform Division
Risk Communications Team Lead (Lead Health Communication Specialist), grade 14: usajobs.gov/job/665886900

Also in Inform:
Health Scientist, grade 13: usajobs.gov/GetJob/ViewDet…

Health Scientist, grade 14: usajobs.gov/GetJob/ViewDet…

Public Health Advisor, grade 13: usajobs.gov/GetJob/ViewDet…

Public Health Advisor, grade 14: usajobs.gov/GetJob/ViewDet…

Also this one closes Wednesday (2 days!) Inform Deputy Division Director which is posted as a Supervisory Health Scientist (Communication), grade 15. usajobs.gov/job/665745100

Read 4 tweets

Marc Lipsitch

@mlipsitch

May 24, 2022

@cdcgov

Thrilled to announce that our data science (modeling/analytics) jobs are now live for the @cdcgov Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics:
closing June 3 so apply now!