[Short thread] I see a lot of hype brewing around the #ChinaIran 25y agreement. Frankly, I do understand why, but, folks, it's not a signed document that will change the dynamics of Sino-Iranian relations, which have been quite consistent since 1979. [1/9]
The document under scrutiny is the formalisation of the 2016 CSP. Rouhani and Xi basically agreed on everything that is now on the proposal back then. Very little has been realised in the last 4 years, esp. in key sectors such as oil, infrastructures, etc. Why? [2/9]
Well, definitely not because the document wasn't there. More likely because China-Iran relations don't exist in a vacuum. Strong dynamics are going on both within and around this partnership. At the bilateral level, there are financial, technological, and political limits. [3/9]
At the regional level, China is constantly increasing its footprint in the Persian Gulf. It's a careful game, and Beijing is not likely to risk alienating its Arab partners pushing too far its relationship with Iran. Every move is well-balanced. [4/9]
At the global level, China is engaged in a complex, multi-layered competition with the US. Iran (& the Persian Gulf) has its place in it. Whether as a bargaining chip or a potential ally, China will keep treating Iran with the flexibility needed to serve its own interests. [5/9]
From 2016, we've clearly seen all these dynamics at play. They'll remain there even after the 25y cooperation document is signed. The two countries already have tons of reasons to coop. Therefore, I don't think it's necessary to overstate the impact of this new arrangement. [6/9]
To be clear, this doesn't mean that Iran isn't on a dangerous path of overdependence on China (funny that is Ahmadinejad who exposed it weeks ago...). It's also true that it's largely due to Iran's isolation. But, again, it's not this document that'll make a huge difference [7/9]
I look forward to being proved wrong, but I believe that, all considered, I believe this 25y agreement looks more like a (questionable, maybe) attempt to picture Iran as less isolated rather than a substantial revolution in the IRI's "Neither East, nor West" doctrine. [8/9]
To conclude, high-sounding partnership and far-reaching, comprehensive agreements need to be translated into stable, every-day cooperation. Otherwise, they are just empty boxes. At the moment, the #ChinaIran cooperation doc looks more like another layer of wrapping paper. [9/9]
So, should we now refer to it as a “roadmap”?
Not exactly the strongest word available for such a widely published turn, isn’t it? #ChinaIran
Not exactly the strongest word available for such a widely published turn, isn’t it? #ChinaIran
And then came @USAdarFarsi👇🏽
Great thread 👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽
