Thanks @TobySells @MemphisFlyer for this piece on my work around covid data in Memphis/Shelby County.
I'll give a mini-update on where things stand now.
(Hint: We waited too late. It's out of control. We'll have to shut down soon.)
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I'll give a mini-update on where things stand now.
(Hint: We waited too late. It's out of control. We'll have to shut down soon.)
1/
The first thing I'll note is that the trends are even worse than when Toby and I spoke last wk. The doubling time was roughly a month then. It's now at 3 wks.
So we're now on pace to hit 100k total cases by mid-Sept and 1M by Dec3. For context, we just hit 12k on Mon.
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So we're now on pace to hit 100k total cases by mid-Sept and 1M by Dec3. For context, we just hit 12k on Mon.
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New cases per day are down 17% this wk over last.
But that's deceiving...bc testing is down 29%.
And so, at 14.4% positive, we're looking at by far the highest positivity rate yet. Anything over 10% means you are missing a significant number of cases.
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But that's deceiving...bc testing is down 29%.
And so, at 14.4% positive, we're looking at by far the highest positivity rate yet. Anything over 10% means you are missing a significant number of cases.
3/
Testing is a huge problem right now.
1) Appointments are booked up for days.
2) Lines for on-demand testing are hours-long.
3) Tests are restricted to those with symptoms.
4) Results are taking a week to come back.
These are all problems. Together, it's catastrophic.
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1) Appointments are booked up for days.
2) Lines for on-demand testing are hours-long.
3) Tests are restricted to those with symptoms.
4) Results are taking a week to come back.
These are all problems. Together, it's catastrophic.
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First, testing strategy...
If there are limits to testing, then you have to prioritize those w/o symptoms. How do you turn them away? That's where the spread is coming from.
Those w/symptoms needs to just assume they are positive and quarantine.
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If there are limits to testing, then you have to prioritize those w/o symptoms. How do you turn them away? That's where the spread is coming from.
Those w/symptoms needs to just assume they are positive and quarantine.
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If on-demand testing means waiting for hours, working ppl can't do that. Many others just won't.
If it takes days to get a testing appointment, then ppl w/o symptoms are walking around infecting others for days.
By the time they get tested, they've infected abt 10 others.
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If it takes days to get a testing appointment, then ppl w/o symptoms are walking around infecting others for days.
By the time they get tested, they've infected abt 10 others.
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Then, bc results are taking a wk, by the time they come back positive, the 1 that infected 10 has now become 100.
So that's a massive contact tracing load.
But then tracers tell each of them to get tested, which takes days, then results take days, so now 1 has become 1000.
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So that's a massive contact tracing load.
But then tracers tell each of them to get tested, which takes days, then results take days, so now 1 has become 1000.
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This is why, contra the president, a lack of testing actually leads to more cases.
Mass testing allows you to catch cases early, trace and isolate quickly, thereby stopping the spread in its tracks. This is why, contra the president, more testing leads to fewer cases.
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Mass testing allows you to catch cases early, trace and isolate quickly, thereby stopping the spread in its tracks. This is why, contra the president, more testing leads to fewer cases.
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But here's the question: How does anyone expect schools to open if testing isn't even available?
Yes, we all want schools to reopen. As a parent, I desperately want it for my kids. As an educator, I desperately want it for my students.
But we can't open if it's not safe.
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Yes, we all want schools to reopen. As a parent, I desperately want it for my kids. As an educator, I desperately want it for my students.
But we can't open if it's not safe.
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And it's not safe. It's nowhere near being safe. To even think about it being safe at this point would require at least a 45-day lockdown. That is how out of control things are at the moment.
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But our leaders seem to be ok w/sacrificing our students + their families & our teachers.
Folks like to say Genesis 22 (Abraham & Isaac) isn't relevant anymore. As if we don't continue to sacrifice children every single day.
(This is what I wrote my masters thesis on.)
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Folks like to say Genesis 22 (Abraham & Isaac) isn't relevant anymore. As if we don't continue to sacrifice children every single day.
(This is what I wrote my masters thesis on.)
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To those, like the president, who say we *have* to open schools, I would say this: You should have thought of that sooner.
But it's too late now.
We sacrificed "Back to School" on the altar of "Back to Business."
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But it's too late now.
We sacrificed "Back to School" on the altar of "Back to Business."
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I can't help but wonder how much race + ethnicity factor into our response.
No, scratch that. I don't wonder, I know: Our response to covid would be completely different if it white ppl were as impacted as Black and Latinx ppl.
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No, scratch that. I don't wonder, I know: Our response to covid would be completely different if it white ppl were as impacted as Black and Latinx ppl.
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Shelby County is 41% white.
But white folks make up just 17% of covid cases.
Black & Latinx folx are over-represented.
And this is all you need to know to understand our covid response.
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But white folks make up just 17% of covid cases.
Black & Latinx folx are over-represented.
And this is all you need to know to understand our covid response.
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Also, as @tamisawyer reminded us on this @RhodesCollege panel discussion tonight, covid is rampant in our jails.
And as @Pastor_Earle reminded us on the same panel, many in our jails only only there bc they can't afford bail.
And we let it happen.
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And as @Pastor_Earle reminded us on the same panel, many in our jails only only there bc they can't afford bail.
And we let it happen.
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We need to end cash bail.
In the meantime, though, you can donate to @JustCity901 community bail fund.
justcity.org/what-we-do/mcb…
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In the meantime, though, you can donate to @JustCity901 community bail fund.
justcity.org/what-we-do/mcb…
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If we were following the data, we would be locked down.
The covid suppression metrics from @HarvardGH say that lockdown is necessary once you reach 25 daily new cases per 100k, on a 7-day avg.
Well, we blew by that 2 wks ago!
We're at 32.7 now!
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The covid suppression metrics from @HarvardGH say that lockdown is necessary once you reach 25 daily new cases per 100k, on a 7-day avg.
Well, we blew by that 2 wks ago!
We're at 32.7 now!
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We're going to have to do a hard reset.
The only question now is not if, but when.
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The only question now is not if, but when.
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19/19
Can I get 10 pp to give $10 each to match my $100?
charity.gofundme.com/o/en/campaign/…
19/19
