Thread by @davidfrum

In advance of the Trump business documents decision expected this AM from the Supreme Court: here's a primer by me from March about the legal rights-and-wrongs of the case. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

Also in advance, and warming the oven for a serving of humble pie at 11ish, here's my guess as to what will happen in the Mazar's litigation ...

1) The Court will reject the Trump argument in favor of a fantastically elaborate new standard of judicial review of congressional subpoenas. The Court will reaffirm Congress' broad subpoena rights as defined by the court in multiple cases. BUT ...

2) The Court will say, even though Congress' subpoena rights are very broad, those rights do need to be clarified a little. Here's a new standard, still very favorable to Congress. Now go reargue the case in lower courts, where Congress will win ... but not until after November

3) Meanwhile, the Court will let go forward the New York State prosecutors' subpoenas. Total victory for them - but of course those subpoenas also will not yield public information until after November.

4) Practical real-world result - and remember this is only one man's guess -

a) Court reaffirms the rule of law Trump would trample;

b) Sets future private citizen Trump up for a world of trouble;

but

c) Saves his bacon in advance of November 2020.

EDIT

DELETE "argument in favor of a fantastically elaborate new standard"

INSERT "demand for a fantastically elaborate new standard"