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Ed Conway

@EdConwaySky

Feb 16

What would happen to Europe if Russia turned off the gas?
Short (and perhaps surprising) answer: the UK would play a crucial role in keeping the lights on and homes heated across much of the continent.
Longer answer here: news.sky.com/story/energy-c…

Quick run through the numbers, tho it’s worth underlining this is v much a worse case scenario & it’s v v v unlikely Russia would cut off European gas supplies. However such exercises can actually tell you quite a lot about the way the world works - that’s certainly the case here

At current typical usage Russia provides roughly 270m cubic metres of gas a day to continental Europe via main pipelines. Most via Nord Stream I, then Ukraine, then Yamal (and note this numbers can vary quite a lot). Current usage is actually a bit lower than historically...

Read 20 tweets

Ed Conway

@EdConwaySky

Feb 12

The Humber Refinery in NE England.
This place looks and smells like a ghost of fossil fuel history. It's where they turn crude oil into petrol, jet fuel & many other petrochemical products.
It won't seem the obvious place to start a thread abt batteries.
But bear with me
🧵

Because the gritty reality of how batteries are made is often skirted over in most reports.
But the deeper you go the more fascinating it gets.
So before we get to the stuff u know about - the gigafactories & lithium mines - let's ponder this place. Why? It's the missing link..

Actually before we head in, let's recall the basic chemistry of a battery, which isn't immediately obvious from the outside.
This is a typical cylindrical lithium-ion battery.
A Tesla is a big slab of thousands of these batteries with a car on top. But now let's look inside.

Read 31 tweets

Ed Conway

@EdConwaySky

Feb 11

🚨NEW🚨
- UK govt privately warned it's falling dangerously behind in its plans to build a battery industry.
- Plans nowhere near enough to save the car industry, according to documents seen by Sky News.
- Hundreds of thousands of jobs could be at risk as a result.
🧵

The key chart.
The higher the bars the more battery production capacity.
The leftmost bar is what the UK produces now
The middle one is where we’ll be in 2030, based on current projections
The one on the right is where we OUGHT to be aiming for by 2030.
DOUBLE the current plan.

Why does this matter?
Because the UK’s strength in car manufacturing was built in large part on our ability to design & make engines.
The EV revolution turns the industrial rules on its head: the main value-add comes not from engines but from batteries.
Matters for jobs & exports

Read 10 tweets

Ed Conway

@EdConwaySky

Feb 7

@skynews

This is a long video - much longer than the @skynews explainers I usually make.
But it's about a very big and consequential question - one that deserves consideration:
Is Net Zero and environmental policy responsible for the current energy crisis?
This is my attempt at an answer:

Predictably there are quite a lot of people out there insisting the current rise in prices has nothing to do with net zero policy.
Predictably there are a lot of people out there insisting it’s all or mostly to do with net zero policy.
Predictably, they’re both wrong.
🧵

Let's begin with the big picture, and for the time being let's just look at where we get our electricity from (this being only a fraction of total ENERGY use). In the UK we've reduced our reliance on coal to v low levels. This is an impact of environmental policy.

Read 27 tweets

Ed Conway

@EdConwaySky

Feb 6

Do you think, on balance, that the young have been selfish or selfless in their conduct during the pandemic?

Still plenty of time left in this admittedly unscientific poll, but already the answer is pretty clear.
And frankly, that’s the way I would have voted too.
Nearly every piece of statistical evidence suggests the young have been remarkably SELFLESS during the pandemic.

@ONS

Clearly they didn’t face the same health risks as the elderly during the pandemic, but most young people followed the lockdown strictures and rules.
Even when lockdowns end they remained remarkably committed and considerate.
This is an @ONS survey abt behaviour POST lockdowns:

Read 13 tweets

Ed Conway

@EdConwaySky

Feb 3

🚨NEW 🚨
Bank of England says UK households must brace themselves for the biggest annual fall in their standard of living since comparable records began three decades ago, as it:
- Raises interest rates to 0.5%
- Says inflation will surpass 7%
- Slashes GDP forecast

According to the Bank’s calculations, real post-tax labour income - perhaps the best measure of standards of living since it accounts for the rising tax burden as well as inflation and earnings - will fall by 2% in 2022
Biggest fall since comparable records began in 1990

The MPC voted 5-4 in favour of raising interest rates from 0.25% to 0.5%. But those four dissenting members wanted a hike to 0.75%.
So households will have to contend with higher borrowing costs as well as higher taxes, energy, goods and services prices.

Read 8 tweets

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