OK, our daily update is published. States reported 637k tests. Today’s case count is the second-highest in our data; the record was set yesterday. Hospitalizations kept moving upward, and states reported 867 deaths. 
Nationally, the 7-day average in deaths has begun to rise after an extended decline. The last three days were the highest numbers we’ve since early June.
This rise in deaths is concentrated in states with large outbreaks. Texas, California, and Florida all reported their single highest day of deaths for the entire pandemic today.
We have released two new API fields, breaking COVID-19 death counts into probable and confirmed categories for the 24 states that offer them.
covidtracking.com/blog/confirmed…
covidtracking.com/blog/confirmed…
While doing the research for this change, we learned more about the two different ways states determine COVID-19 deaths. Both have merits: one is a little more accurate, the other is a lot faster. CDC advises one, but uses both. States are in a bind.
For data observers, one key takeaway is that the lag in reporting deaths may vary widely between states that use the different methods.
On-the-ground reporting has been indicating that testing capacity is constrained right now, but we hadn’t seen that in our data. Now, after weeks of the 7-day average moving upwards, testing has stalled, even as cases reach new highs.
Arizona is the poster child for this problem. Even as the outbreak continues there and hospitalizations and deaths rise, the 7-day average for tests has fallen in July.
California reported a record number of deaths today. We don’t know if that’s a one-off bad day or if the state will regularly begin reporting much higher numbers of deaths.
On the other end of the country, South Carolina is showing a clear trend of increasing numbers of COVID deaths.
The data reported today may still have some backlogged information from the holiday weekend, but the South does not look good.
