Mike Azar Profile picture
Jul 10, 2020 7 tweets 5 min read Read on X
1/ It's important to say that very little of what I've shared here in the last few months is original work. Nobody should get the impression that any one person can know and do all this alone. It has always been a team effort.
We all learned about central banking and macro from @AndyKhalil1 @lebfinance @nafezouk @EHSANI22

We learned about Basel and IFRS from @Marguerittacb

@OmarTamo19 taught us about the Lebanese exchange rate market

@dgheim helped us consider the role of tech
@HuseinNourdin taught us about the history of political/econ developments and unfulfilled promises

@masss11 taught us about LBP bank notes

@Jessica_Obeid taught us about electricity sector reform

The #agrinerds taught us about food security and the future of agriculture
@PaulAbiNasr about issues of concern to industry

@ritabes helped us understand the Eurobonds

@aliamoub @gerard_zouein's work is top notch

@Mohdfaour89 tracked the history of financial sector with precision
The Govt Plan & ABL Contribution provided useful info as well.

Just the comments/DMs on Twitter are a university degree on their own.
I've learned from dozens of people over the months, people who have actually done original work. The list is too long because the pool of Lebanese talent is insane. It's what keeps me optimistic.

It'd take days to list all of the people who have contributed. I'm forgetting many.
All I'm good at is receiving, synthesizing, and communicating information, but maybe 5% of the work is purely original.

Follow all of the people above to stay up to date on the important challenges facing this country. They're the future.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Mike Azar

Mike Azar Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @AzarsTweets

Apr 7
1/ ANATOMY OF A FRAUDULANT CENTRAL BANK TRADE

The trades between Optimum Invest (OI) & Banque du Liban (BDL) are part of an elaborate accounting fraud and money laundering plot that OI facilitated. The Kroll report doesn't vindicate OI. A simple explanation of what happened:
** Firstly, this is damning for: (i) Alvarez & Marsal, which only uncovered 2 of 45 such trades in its poor-quality report; (ii) Deloitte, the auditor who didn't raise any red flags; & (iii) current BDL management for failing to investigate (investigate anything, not just this!)
2/ Anatomy of the trade

Simultaneously,
(a) BDL lends 100 to OI
(b) OI uses 100 to buy a Treasury bond from BDL for a price of 100 [numbers for illustration]
(c) BDL buys the same bond from OI for 150
(d) OI takes the excess 50, pays 49 to BDL as commission & keeps 1 as profit
Read 16 tweets
Mar 23, 2023
The IMF statement on Lebanon makes clear how far we are from implementing an IMF program here and undertaking any reforms to exit the crisis.

It paints a grim picture of the alternate scenario and is a direct rebuke of obstructionist MPs.

[A thread]

imf.org/en/News/Articl…
1. No change in the IMF view on financial sector restructuring: address losses upfront, respect the hierarchy of claims (i.e., bank shareholders lose first and then depositors), protect small depositors, and limit use of public assets/money given the unsustainable public debt. Image
2. The IMF recognizes that proposals calling for "Gov't to pay the losses using its assets" & "not touch any deposits" are NOT viable. They simply don't work b/c the numbers don't add up.

This is a message directed at Lebanese MPs and uninformed economists promoting such ideas
Read 16 tweets
Feb 2, 2023
1/ Stop everything and read the three-part investigation by @MaucourantNada describing never-before seen details of the European money laundering investigation into Lebanon's central bank governor. I will summarize below:

Part 1: The Fake Commissions

apple.news/A-4yMBH4UPRmuZ…
2/ Firstly, the investigations were launched starting in 2020 as a result of the Panama Papers leak, a change in financial disclosure rules and related anti-money laundering laws in Europe, and, in some cases, complaints filed by watchdog organizations abroad, incl @NowActs.
3/ So yes, contrary to popular opinion in Lebanon, Omar Harfoush and Wadi3 Akl have nothing to do with the investigations and are not behind them in any way. They are only exploiting them for political gain.
Read 26 tweets
Feb 1, 2023
Practically, this doesn't change much for the economy or depositors

It's being sold as "a step towards implementing the IMF deal" but it actually cuts against the philosophy of the deal - recognizing ALL losses upfront & not dragging it

IMO, it's part of the "no-IMF Plan B"

👇
- Financial sector losses should be resolved through a comprehensive bank resolution framework, not piecemeal circulars

- What about banks other losses (BDL exposure, etc.). These are much larger than the fx losses referenced in the article/circular, so why are they ignored?
- Will BDL adopt the new rate on its b/s & finally admit to its own capital/fx losses or will it continue hiding them via fraud?

- How much fx losses do banks actually have, how will they plausibly be closed over 5 years, and why use a fake 15,000 rate? Why drag on this misery?
Read 4 tweets
Dec 26, 2022
Looking back at the Lebanese economy in 2022, a few things things to note.
1/ The exchange rate trajectory has not really changed, & the last few weeks weren't out-of-the-ordinary. The change from 35,000 LBP to 46,500 LBP is the same as the change from 1,500 to 2,000 in % terms
2/ The balance of payments deficit was ~$3 bn, not much different from 2021. This is all financed using BDL reserves. Despite the continued devaluation of the LBP, the BOP deficit remains high and is not falling. It takes more than currency collapse to make a productive economy.
3/ BDL foreign currencies fell from $12.8 billion to $10.2 billion. The LBP depreciated from ~27,000 in Dec 2021 to ~46,000 in Dec 2022 (~40% loss in value). This is despite BDL intervening in the market with ~$2.5-3 billion.
Read 7 tweets
Nov 16, 2022
Based on Israel's summary of the framework agreement with Total/ENI, Lebanon's chief negotiator Elias Bou Saab either misled the Lebanese public about what was agreed in the maritime boundary deal or there's a serious misunderstanding between both sides.

gov.il/BlobFolder/new…
Elias Bou Saab indicated on Sar El Wa2t that Lebanon is indifferent to whatever is agreed between Total and Israel as we are not affected by it.

mtv.com.lb/vod/en/video/2…
But this framework agreement between Total/Israel indicates that Lebanon is directly affected by this agreement, which we had absolutely no say in.

For example, the framework agreement says:
Read 15 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(