Another 90s Bubble Anecdote.. we had huge Portfolio of ~35 Bridge Loans.. u got paid 50bps upfront fees.. for sending in a fax commitment letter.. before fax went beep beep..$HYG market took out Bridge... Free Money!
That’s the kind of Bubble it was.. this is nothing in .
Ironically... Koppers cited in that WSJ article... was bought with the Dillon Read Saratoga Fund Bridge that we were a big part of...
In the 21st Century with rates dropping to Zero + Fed $7Trillion Sheet etc ... & LIBOR dropping over 700bps to ~30bps.... High Yield Junk Bonds have Never traded to its 1997 tights of +237bps... the M&A back then was so frothy.. makes anything after GFC look boring. #Facts
Now we are at 600+ bps over almost 3x the tights in the ‘90s... it’s an absolutely terrible comparison.
One of my favorites as a comp to the 90s Bubble... how many times have you shown up to an roadshow lunch & found a set of golf clubs as a deal toy? I wasn’t there.. but my colleague was...Admittedly, that was rare... even then...but actually one Dealer did make that happen.
5 day Bankers Trust conference now ...at the Phoenician... A Scheduled Golf event every single day after meetings that end at around noon.. Casino nights with all the Issuers... now you barely get a conference bag.. if you’re lucky. That’s 90s froth.
These anecdotes are the difference between Dealers trading at 5x TBV...vs 1.0x TBV today... this is so far from froth.. it makes one’s head spin. #Reflation#M&A
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Problem with the Fed is they suddenly have this view that they can just put the Deflation toothpaste back in the tube with the utmost of ease. It’s very complacent, unfortunately.
This is nothing like the 1970s to even use a Volcker playbook is flat out wrong.
There are enough Academics & Street Intelligentsia that are convinced Inflation is entrenched like the 1970s… thus the issue.
Decent thread… I would say around 1Q23 we see Terminal Reserves. This year more of a Balance Sheet Scarcity issue v Liquidity at GSIBs (small nuance that ultimately ends in less intermediation)..& QT can actually free up more Balance Sheet for 2023 in conjunction with RWAs down
Banks have overcome SCB & GSIB Scores get better with less liquidity.. via solid retained earnings + suspended buybacks in 2022…plus at Basel IV end state so SLR relief also on the horizon especially if Congress changes hands, but heavy lifting already largely done in 2022.
So that’s on the Balance Sheet side that’s clearing up… now strictly on Liquidity let’s remember MMFs absolutely provide liquidity into Sponsored FICC Repo which is low Sheet usage coz Netting + also Triparty… so Cash moving from $2.3T RRP would foam runway for further QT….
“Internal metrics thus far in October suggest continuing solid performance in 4Q22 as Sep did v Aug & Aug v July. It’s certainly possible things could change for the worse..but that would require an adverse change that we don’t broadly see in current environment.”
- $GPN CEO
Rev $33B +10% YoY
NII $17.5B +35% YoY (Once again Raising FY22 Guidance to $66B on Hikes & subdued Deposit Betas)
Loans +7% YoY w Flat Deposits YoY… Fed’s draining continues but Bank Liquidity is extremely strong w 113% HoldCo LCR & Bank OpCo at 165%…
Reverse Repo was down 6% QoQ…not surprising given GC/SOFR still at RRP Floor & massive Hikes offering huge IORB returns w Loan Growth that’s partially been funded on RWAs at expense of Cap Markets.. $JPM usually Repo Liquidity provider at 11AM Repo Stress..& prices accordingly.
Front End Stress non existent.. given huge Buffers.. but Long End Stress was coz SLR etc… still needs recalibration.. better to front run $JPM imho… they will ultimately be buyers…
September PPI Final Demand +0.4% MoM… last month MoM revised down to -0.2% MoM.. +8.5% YoY.
Core PPI +7.2% YoY v +7.3% YoY in August.
PPI Series Peaked in March 2022 at +11.7% YoY. Core CPI Series peaked in March at +9.7% YoY.
Inflation Deceleration continues..
September CPI… +8.2% YoY vs a recent high of +9.1% YoY in June.
Core CPI +6.6% YoY took out +6.3% YoY high in March.. Core driven mainly by Rents… Rental Appreciation is BLS sticky… But in the Real World appreciation has been cut in 1/2 already.
Energy down big…
BLS OER Estimates are +6.7% YoY v +6.3% YoY in August…
OER Growth Rate is in a +2.78 Sigma Right Tail Bubble (data since 1984)…
We already know Rental Growth has been cut in 1/2 in September in the Real World.. Ask Sternlicht or Redfin.