Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
PlungeProtectionTeam Profile picture
PlungeProtectionTeam
@gamesblazer06
Financials Guy. Never Give Up on America. 🇺🇸 (Same handle on Truth Social)
Ramy Profile picture Reza Profile picture Louis Winthorpe III Profile picture Patryk Kubiak 🇵🇱 Profile picture CareerLow Profile picture 6 subscribed
Nov 2, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Problem with the Fed is they suddenly have this view that they can just put the Deflation toothpaste back in the tube with the utmost of ease. It’s very complacent, unfortunately. This is nothing like the 1970s to even use a Volcker playbook is flat out wrong.
Nov 2, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
CPI 8.2%… 1 Year Breakevens 2.85%

5Y5Y 2.66%… we were North of 3% in 2011 & 2012 when we were fighting Deflation at ZIRP. The Bond Markets don’t believe in entrenched LT Inflation.
Nov 1, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Decent thread… I would say around 1Q23 we see Terminal Reserves. This year more of a Balance Sheet Scarcity issue v Liquidity at GSIBs (small nuance that ultimately ends in less intermediation)..& QT can actually free up more Balance Sheet for 2023 in conjunction with RWAs down Banks have overcome SCB & GSIB Scores get better with less liquidity.. via solid retained earnings + suspended buybacks in 2022…plus at Basel IV end state so SLR relief also on the horizon especially if Congress changes hands, but heavy lifting already largely done in 2022.
Oct 31, 2022 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
“Internal metrics thus far in October suggest continuing solid performance in 4Q22 as Sep did v Aug & Aug v July. It’s certainly possible things could change for the worse..but that would require an adverse change that we don’t broadly see in current environment.”
- $GPN CEO $GPN clears $900B+ of annual Merchant Processing Spending Volume w 3Q22 at +11% YoY.
Oct 14, 2022 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
$JPM 3Q22 Solid Beat:

Rev $33B +10% YoY
NII $17.5B +35% YoY (Once again Raising FY22 Guidance to $66B on Hikes & subdued Deposit Betas)
Loans +7% YoY w Flat Deposits YoY… Fed’s draining continues but Bank Liquidity is extremely strong w 113% HoldCo LCR & Bank OpCo at 165%… Reverse Repo was down 6% QoQ…not surprising given GC/SOFR still at RRP Floor & massive Hikes offering huge IORB returns w Loan Growth that’s partially been funded on RWAs at expense of Cap Markets.. $JPM usually Repo Liquidity provider at 11AM Repo Stress..& prices accordingly.
Oct 12, 2022 • 28 tweets • 12 min read
September PPI Final Demand +0.4% MoM… last month MoM revised down to -0.2% MoM.. +8.5% YoY.

Core PPI +7.2% YoY v +7.3% YoY in August.

PPI Series Peaked in March 2022 at +11.7% YoY. Core CPI Series peaked in March at +9.7% YoY.

Inflation Deceleration continues.. September CPI… +8.2% YoY vs a recent high of +9.1% YoY in June.

Core CPI +6.6% YoY took out +6.3% YoY high in March.. Core driven mainly by Rents… Rental Appreciation is BLS sticky… But in the Real World appreciation has been cut in 1/2 already.

Energy down big…
Sep 30, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
The Fed’s Michelle Bowman sounding very astute & reasonable… she usually doesn’t get the Media headlines. Wow… She’s actually addressing Annual SCB Vol…& wants to average out results. 👀 $XLF #Reflation
Sep 30, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Fed H8 Data as of Sep 14…has a minuscule increment in Loan Loss Reserves/Loans of 1.4%…System has $160B in Reserves on Sheet mostly Cards.

So don’t expect any meaningful increase in Net Charge Offs that are still at 22bps as of 2Q22 for the US Banking System.
$XLF #Reflation Image Credit Costs… Will Normalize…. Banks have said this ever since Forbearance ended.. you just won’t see anything too meaningful in 3Q22…

Banks have Over Earned on Credit & Under Earned on NII coming into 2022.. NII is now Ripping..
Sep 28, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
I don’t know who needs to hear this… but the US Economy doesn’t work at a 7% Mortgage Rate. The Fed has 2 choices… either pull a Liz Truss now… or in 6 Months.
Sep 28, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Memo to the Intelligentsia… if you think UK Mortgage Availability is bad… Have you taken a look at what it’s like in the US? They are cutting Rates… we hit 7% last night & the Fed wants to Tighten Aggressively..

Truss has figured it out before Biden.
Sep 27, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
5Y5Y Stuck at 2.5% All Year Long… I’m sure that’s anchoring too..
Sep 26, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Supply Chain Inflation Collapsed…

Why is the Karshkari still pushing Rate Hikes? LOL Let me help him with Supply Chains…

Does he have access to NY Fed data?
Aug 7, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
CLO Equity Distributions (even in 90s Long more painful Recession) can turn off in a Recession for a bit .. even a long one… trade down to 20c.. & then catch up for the majority of deals.. BBBs ok.. BBs are a tweener (No man’s land) & AAA are the best Risk Adjusted Sweet Spot. CLO Equity is a Very Attractive Asset.. in a Rising Rate environment especially in Year 3 of a Recovery:

1) 10x Levered Collateral Debt Securities
that are top of Cap structure.. where Issuers seeing higher EBITDA Op Lev Trump Rates… expression of Econ Strength.
Aug 5, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Post Covid Banks…even after Releasing Reserves in 2021…built in 2020 through the P&L… still have 2x the amount of Reserves in the most potentially Stressed part of their Book.. aka Cards than 4Q19.. & their Card Customers have $2T+ of XS Savings.. that they never had before, I love $XLF coz I love #MarginForError Image
Jul 29, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
“European Banks Blow the Roof Off, For Now” - Bloomberg

The demise of European Banks on Russia in 1H22 was greatly Over-Exaggerated by Intelligentsia especially when citing FRA OIS gapping higher on Russia….spurious imho.. had nothing to do w Credit.
bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… As mentioned back in March.. FRA OIS gapped up coz…2a7 Money Funds Shortened WAM to harvest & get ahead of a battery of Fed Rate Hikes. $EUFN
Jul 27, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
$CS reports a €1.7B Loss..Delta v Street mainly coz of Litigation, Restructuring & AllFunds equity.. but Wealth weaker given lower Market Levels & Client De-Leveraging but Gross Margins steady 83bps.. Investment Bank -40% YoY, FICC -28% YoY, Equity Flat YoY, Cap Mkts -96% YoY Swiss Universal Bank Rev +3% YoY driven by higher NII.. Credit remains Solid w an Asset Light Biz w only a small CHF96MM provision…High Yield small US$245MM MTM loss with exposure down to $5.9B..Solid 13.5% CET1 Capital & 6.1% Leverage Ratio…Liquidity is Off Charts w 191% LCR.
May 2, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
S&P: April Manufacturing

“The rate of overall growth ‘Accelerated’ for the 3rd Month running & was the ‘Sharpest’ since last September.”

$XLF #Reflation But 2s10s…
May 1, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
LOL People are exhausted - perhaps even inflation by natural extension. TBD.
Apr 30, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Yes, Tech got absolutely smoked…

Value now dragged down with Russia… given 2s10s Recession False Flags..& too aggressive Market Rate Hike Expectations…but we’ll get through Vol.. & the Fed acted decisively on “Inflation Expectations” .. Crushed it like a bug.. 5Y5Y at 2.74% I Stress out Banks 9 ways 2Sunday… I’m not stressed. Banks fundamentals getting stronger as we speak. They r printing Trading Revs/NII that more than fund AOCI burn..Regs now Understating Strength..Coz ~5 turns of tangible leverage & almost 2 turns of SLR r Cash Bound by LCR.
Apr 24, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
First legit debate…. As far as the part about moving Private Leverage to the Public Balance Sheet.
Apr 22, 2022 • 15 tweets • 3 min read
$LQD Spanked -14% YTD

Scorned & abused by $ZROZ

Time for redemption getting closer? IG Index trading at +119bps…
IG US Bank Index trading at +122bps… gets the benefit of Regionals that are still super tight… a good sign for Credit..if there was a Recession there’s no way Credit wouldn’t be punting Regionals…..