Nigeria can work, graduating from a mere country to a real nation, but only if we return to its wobbly Lugardian foundations of the Almalgamation of 1914, and agree to become a nation, and if so on what basis. This is the National Question. I have long argued we must address it.
The only workable outcome for our country must be a constitutional restructuring back to real federalism, for two reasons:One,to prevent people of any part of Nigeria feeling “dominated” by any other part, thus fostering unity and mutual respect on the basis of equity& justice.
Two, this will release the massive potential for economic growth in ALL parts of Nigeria, especially if we take a regional approach that will take advantage of economies of scale. It is striking that some continue to resist the obvious path of restructuring.
But, let’s avoid stereotypes, such as that “the North” is opposed. There is a narrow political elite that continues in futile resistance to this idea, but don’t be confused. Over the past few years large numbers of Northerners are now persuaded that it’s in everyone’s interest.
There is a difference between national ambition and national daydreaming. Nigeria has gone too far backward to have any chance of real unity and development under the “unitary federalism” we practice today. The best way forward is for us to agree on some common aspirations,
and then give ourselves enough space in a constitutional structure to strive for progress. If this is not addressed as a matter of urgency, it will return to the table inevitably in 2023 and immediately thereafter. This is the real issue for Nigeria, as well as #ElectoralReform
It’s also the only real path out of the oil curse and debt peonage that has made us poorer and, despite all rhetoric, will continue to do so under the current system.Combined with the total breakdown of security, esp in Northern Nigeria today,& “count your teeth with your tongue”
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
The @nnpclimited v @AlikoDangote saga is a sad tale of how successive governments of Nigeria have failed to create a real economy that generates wealth for its citizens. Our economy works only for a very few who get rich while Nigerians continually get poorer. #Rentseeking
The economic failure of Nigeria's leaders because of loyalties to vested interests and unholy ties between "business" and government is deeply unfortunate. @NigeriaGov is, and has been unable, either to stimulate through effect economic policy a set of strategic oligopolies
across sectors under which smaller businesses and supply chains thrive, making up a successful national economy as in South Korea. Neither has the government, on the other hand, been able to create a truly competitive, level playing field for business in Nigeria so that wealth
In the debates on national wage in Nigeria we miss the fundamental point: there is little or no productivity in the economy. If we had a truly productive economy there is no reason we can’t have the kind of minimum wage of 400 or 500K that Labour wants. But we can’t, because the
level of productivity in the economy cannot support it. Remember, minimum wage is not just about government salaries. There are not more than 2, at most 3 million civil servants in Nigeria. It is even more about what is paid in the private sector, to household staff, etc.
All of this is why, all things considered, including avoiding a minimum wage that multiplies already ravaging inflation (assuming such a wage can even be paid), I recommend a minimum wage of between N75,000 and N100,000.
In fact, speaking about productivity, how productive is
The Naira tanking back down to the 1,400s to $1 demonstrates what some of us have been saying. Seeking a falsely “strong” currency when the fundamentals are out of whack is shadow chasing. The focus should be on the STABILITY of the exchange rate, not a populist exchange rate
and premature declarations of “best performing currency”. Reports that there are now multiple exchange rates to BDCs, Customs, and NAFEX are also worrying. It’s not yet uhuru. Let us stabilize the Naira at whatever is its true market value and then pivot to the real issues:
taking Nigeria to 20-25K megawatts of 24 hour electricity in 2-3 years starting with Lagos, Kano, Onitsha and Nnewi (Aba seems promising with Geometric power) so we can create a truly productive economy. Dealing decisively with oil theft and ramping up oil production to bring in
Our relationships with others sometimes deepen or shrink in strange ways. When I was a Deputy Gov at the CBN, there was this bank MD that wanted my approval for certain things concerning his challenged bank. But he would not follow the guidelines we gave him, instead looking for
shortcuts and expecting me to play along. One day my patience snapped. I terminated our conversation and showed him the door of my office. Long story short, the matter was eventually resolved after the bank met certain regulatory conditions. Today that MD (since retired) is
a good friend. After I completed my tenure in November 2014 and left the apex bank, my deceased father in law was buried in early 2015. The MD sent a personal representative to the funeral with a gift. Note the phrase “after I had completed my tenure and left the apex bank”.
Nigeria’s economic distress is simply part of a 40-year downward trajectory that was broken only briefly by the Obasanjo civilian presidency and to some degree under Yar’Adua/Jonathan (up to mid-2014). Ever since, especially from 2015, we fell under completely incompetent
economic management and have not recovered. The immediate future looks difficult. One wishes one could see what will create fundamental change, but alas! Throwing money that is not created wealth at problems will not solve our problems. It only makes them worse. We need to lay a
real foundation for longer term economic transformation. That 80% of Nigeria’s exports in 2023 was oil tells you we have yet to get serious. “Palliatives” (just google the dictionary definition of the word) will never reverse poverty. Wealth is positively created. You cannot
I have seen in the mainstream media and floating around on social media including Whatsapp, a report purported to be that of the CBN Special Investigator appointed by President Tinubu. I have some comments on this development.
1. The “report” has no signature appended, so we
can’t assume it is the real and official report.
2. Assuming it is in fact the real report, it’s wrong for such a sensitive report to have “leaked” to the public before the President and his government have reviewed and spoken to it. This is because the “report” talks of
“chargeable offenses” and mentions specific individuals it recommends to be prosecuted in addition to Emefiele. This is a media trial and prejudices the rights of these individuals named or referred to. This is NOT how a report into the Central Bank of Nigeria should be handled.