Kyle Harrison Profile picture
Jul 11, 2020 47 tweets 22 min read Read on X
"Live the Library" with Charlie Munger - a thread.

After being inspired by @djrosent to finally sit down and read "Poor Charlie's Almanack" I spent a good chunk during quarantine reading it each morning.

I'll still be internalizing for a long time.

1/ Only right to start a conversation about Charlie Munger by diving into the relationship with Warren Buffett.

Don't find a partner who covers your weaknesses. Be two complete people. Maximize your strengths.

Then be better together. Image
2/ "I’ve gotten paid a lot over the years for reading through the newspapers." (Charlie Munger)

Hot take: Buffett + Munger's success comes from being (1) information ingestion / output machines and (2) insurance float. Maybe I'm wrong?
3/ Convo between me and @LennyIce

Munger/Buffett had (1) insane computer-level information ingestion/output and (2) insurance float.

Similarly, my outside-in view is @awilkinson has (1) unbelievable honesty / delegation and (2) software margins.

Maybe over simplifying.
4/ Everyone should keep a personal history.

Journals. Letters. Notes. Emails.

Take a long-term view. Backwards and forwards. Learn about your parents; grandparents. And make life easier for you kids; grand-kids. Image
5/ Find the people who you can talk with for hours and leave wishing you had endless hours.

Hours that you could keep talking to them. Hours learning more deeply about the things they've just taught you.

Hours to do the things you're inspired to do after talking to them. Image
6/ I would rather read a biography about someone in a field than a book about the field itself.

"Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face."

Learn how other people have dealt with the blows life deals them and maybe you'll handle yours that much better. Image
7/ Reminded me of the Elon Musk profile by @polina_marinova

"Too many smart people go into finance."

Timely this week when Elon Musk's net worth passes Warren Buffett.

No matter your career; ask yourself "What am I selling?" And then ask if you would buy it. Image
8/ "Life's tragedy is that we get old too soon and wise too late. When you're finished changing, you're finished."
(Benjamin Franklin)

“Once you stop learning, you start dying.” (Albert Einstein)
9/ "Take a simple idea and take it seriously." (Charlie Munger)

"The only way to win is to work, work, work, work, and hope to have a few insights." (Charlie Munger)
10/ "What are you the best in the world at?"

You don't have to know every business in and out. But you have to know something, and know it well. Image
11/ Adopting a "spirit of humility."

Everyone is convinced that they're so often right that they would exert significantly more energy to proving themselves right than working to see if they might be wrong.

Image
12/ People saying "I'm not good at math" or "I don't like reading fiction" are inherently bound by intellectual jurisdictions.

Multidisciplinary thinking is based on the ability to take any field and ask "what can I take from this?"

Be an idea thief. Image
13/ We need people to solve hard problems.

But sometimes even the people solving hard problems need to stop and ask if they're jumping over seven-foot fences for no reason.



Image
14/ When you're mapping out your career, ask yourself, "what can I be really good at?"

But don't confuse what you're not good at vs. what you haven't learned yet.

People should try their hand at a lot more jobs than they currently do.

Image
15/ Know when you should trust your gut because the experts are totally misincentivized. But also know when to trust expertise.

"In effect, you've got to know what you know and what you don't know. What could possibly be more useful in life than that?"

harvardmagazine.com/2018/03/death-… Image
16/ "I’ve noticed that amazing books can’t be read quickly because I have to put the book down and think/process what I’ve learned." @AlexAndBooks_

"I needed to engage with the books I read on a much deeper level. I needed to make something out of them." @fortelabs Image
17/ I have this idea of building a "decentralized brain."

People are my nodes. I can't live a life as a lawyer so I have a lawyer friend as a node. I have a blockchain node. A history node. A physics node.

Then I work to expand my circle of competence so I'm not node dependent Image
18/ People give Munger credit for the idea "deserve the partner you want."

But it's a remix from the album "Aristotle's Greatest Hits"

“The best way to avoid envy is to deserve the success you get.”

Image
19/ One of the most powerful ideas I've seen recently:

"Before you deserve to hold a strong opinion you should be able to argue the counter-argument better than those who wish to disagree with you."

If you want to have faith in God, embrace religious apologetics Image
20/ Teaching is not easy, nor should it be.

The best advice I've heard is "Simplify, and Intensify."

Side note: Have the humility to acknowledge when you could have done something better, even when you did well. ImageImage
Listening to @BrentBeshore and @patrick_oshag on @InvestLikeBest talking about how they've been chatting for 10 hours and decided to record an episode, you can feel that same kind of friendship.

investorfieldguide.com/adventures/
21/ "Increasing your confidence without increasing your accuracy is the most dangerous thing you can do." @verdadcap Image
22/ One of the best descriptions of what the outcomes of school should look like.

cc: @soraschools Image
23/ If people weren't so distracted by all the money Charlie Munger had made as an investor they might spend more time thinking about the educational philosopher that he was. Image
24/ People have confused science and opinion because they're unsure and to become sure is far too complicated.

The ethos of "do whatever you want, harm no one" leads to the same ends of "take what you like, ban what you hate."

Our mental models need upgrades of reality checks Image
25/ Fascinating idea. A lot of the world's problems aren't getting solved because they exist in isolated silos.

Maybe we haven't cured cancer yet because the right marine biologist hasn't talked to the right nuclear physicist.

Image
26/ People sometimes dismiss the idea of finding your "circle of competence" because it means you can't learn.

Expanding that circle is just as important as having one. But knowing what is in your circle of competence and what is NOT is the way to avoid overconfidence. Image
27/ "Investing is not a team sport." @chamath

"There is no limit to what a man can do or where he can go if he doesn't mind who gets the credit." Robert Woodruff, former CEO of Coca-Cola

One team, one dream? Or all about who gets the credit? ImageImage
28/ “Too many smart people go into finance and law. That’s both a compliment and a criticism.” @elonmusk

credit: @polina_marinova
theprofile.substack.com/p/the-profile-… Image
29/ There is a difference between money managers that Munger and Buffett deride and an investor

The world needs fewer people who move money for making money's sake. The world needs more people allocating resources to the best ideas

cc @eriktorenberg

30/ @andy_matuschak has made a comment that he's amazed by how little knowledge workers spend time thinking about knowledge.

Eventually you will either pay the price in time and money to have a thinking tool (like @RoamResearch) or you will pay for not having one. Image
31/ "We all agree that pessimism is a mark of superior intellect." [[John Kenneth Galbraith]]

If you find yourself in a situation where you LOVE telling people why their ideas are stupid you probably need to seek satisfaction elsewhere.
32/ People find countless ways to add complexity in hopes of finding specks when "with a little intelligence" you could find truly big ideas.

Big ideas don't have to be big $ amounts.

Image
33/ The only thing you can know about a forecast with 100% certainty is that it is wrong.

Forecasting ought to be a difficult mental exercise where you're trying to understand effects of effects.

You're not looking for the right number. You're looking for the right magnitude. Image
34/ "The acquisition of wisdom is a moral duty."

"An educated citizenry is a vital requisite for our survival as a free people."

"Where is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge? Where is the knowledge we have lost in information?" Image
35/ Really smart people read as much as possible. They consume information from people, books, movies, experiences. Image
36/ “It is dangerous to be right in matters where established men are wrong." [[Voltaire]]

Find the balance between taking on contrarian stances you feel strongly about and having a spirit of humility to learn from those around you / more senior than you. Image
37/ In my religion I often ask myself "why I believe."

Invert, always invert.

"Why wouldn't I believe?" Explore the counterarguments to your belief and you'll come out stronger if you still hold that belief.

cc: @BrentBeshore Image
38/ Are you self-aware enough and incentivized correctly to acknowledge when you might not be the best player to play? Image
39/ When it comes to "human misjudgment" the gateway sin is refusing to change your mind because it forcibly locks down every other misjudgment and stops you from improving.
Image
40/ "Self-Criticism" may be one of the most important ideas I've taken away from Charlie Munger.

"I feel that I'm not entitled to have an opinion unless I can state the arguments against my position better than the people who are in opposition." Image
41/ Rome vs. Athens. Practical vs. imagination.

"Part of the problem is clearly foresight, a failure of imagination." @pmarca

“Too many smart people go into finance and law. That’s both a compliment and a criticism.” @elonmusk Image
42/ Munger has me thinking about fairness. In a world where we wish we had more fairness the deepest regions of my @RoamResearch graph brought me these gems: ImageImage
43/ Past successes will lull you into a false sense of ability. The only antidote is self-reflection and post-mortems on your own past successes.

theverge.com/2020/1/8/21056… ImageImage
44/ Marriage in a nutshell:

Ben Franklin: "Eyes wide open before marriage and half shut afterwards."

Munger: "See it as it is and love it anyways."

Thomas S. Monson: "Choose your love and love your choice." Image

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More from @kwharrison13

Jan 25, 2023
Marc Andreessen has grown a16z from their first fund of $300M in 2009 to over $25B+ in AUM as of 2022.

His framework for understanding any business is simple. It comes down to unpacking what he calls "the onion theory of risk."

Here's what he means...
"If you’re an investor, you look at the risk around an investment
as if it’s an onion. Just like you peel an onion and remove each
layer in turn, risk in a startup investment comes in layers that
get peeled away — reduced — one by one." @pmarca

So what are the risks?
(1) Founder Risk: Does the startup have the right founding team?

A great technologist, plus someone who can run the company?

Is the technologist really all that?

Is the business person capable of running the company?
Read 14 tweets
Jan 20, 2023
In the last 3 years, we saw the Unicorn Club pass 1K+ "members." Many of them have:

✅ $1B+ valuations
✅ Years of runway (maybe)
✅ <$100M revenue

But a lot of VCs are predicting that 50%+ of those companies could fail. Here are the most likely reasons why… Image
The first important reality is that for most of these companies, any valuation mark from 2020 - 2021 aren't just one of many data points. They're IRRELEVANT data points.

In the words of @bgurley, "forget those prices happened."

There are countless reasons a company can die, but here are some of the most threatening as we adjust to the "new normal"

(1) Misunderstanding investor expectations
(2) Avoiding down rounds
(3) Unwilling to control burn
(4) Uncomfortable with layoffs

Let's dig in...
Read 35 tweets
Nov 21, 2022
Yesterday, Disney announced that Bob Iger was returning as the company's CEO, and people loved it (including me).

He was previously the CEO from 2005 to 2020, adding $150B+ to Disney's market cap.

Here's what he accomplished, and why people are excited...
Bob Iger joined Disney, after the acquisition of ABC, where he was previously the President of the company.

He quickly rose through the ranks, and became the COO under Michael Eisner.

A lot of people felt Eisner had led them off a cliff and started a "Save Disney" campaign
Part of that search was looking for a CEO, and Bob Iger became the logical choice and stepped into the CEO role in September 2005.

In his tenure, Bob Iger was the king of M&A, and largely responsible for the powerhouse that Disney is today across the properties they own.
Read 18 tweets
Nov 20, 2022
In just the last 2 months Contrary Research has published 20K+ words in deep dives

- Data infra & $SNOW vs DB
- Evolution of DevOps
- Cybersecurity primer

Check out our reports below 👇

We’ve got a lot of exciting topics planned. What other deep dives should we do?
Clash of the data titans. This will be a battle to watch for the next decade at least!

research.contrary.com/reports/databr…
The future of software is the future of DevOps. How we build software is going to change radically.

research.contrary.com/reports/evolut…
Read 5 tweets
Nov 15, 2022
The biggest difference between a $50B company and a $1B company is the ability to own more of your addressable universe.

You either die a point solution, or you live long enough to become a platform.

Snowflake, Datadog, Crowdstrike

Here’s how some of the best platforms do it…
First, a few caveats

Point solutions aren’t always bad businesses (Thinkcell, Calendly)

And most startups start as point solutions. Evaluating a Series A company on whether it’s a platform is usually kind of stupid

The question is: what is the path to becoming a platform?
So what are the common characteristics of companies that become massive platforms?

Here's a few that I've observed...

1. Nailing The Initial Wedge
2. Building a Multi-Product Org
3. Land and Expand
4. Ridiculous Ambition
Read 28 tweets
Nov 8, 2022
Opendoor has $8B in revenue. Their market cap has dropped from $19B at their peak to $1B today

Bird dropped from $2.4B to $115M

Twilio has ~$3.6B in revenue; they dropped from $70B to ~$8B

Here's why gross margins can kill a business... Image
First, it's important to note that (1) these are dramatically different businesses, and (2) they have plenty of moving parts to their business beyond gross margin.

But across the board, low gross margins do you no favors.

They eat away at your ability to ever generate profit
The more expensive it is to generate your revenue, the less wiggle room you have to fund the operational complexity behind growing that revenue.

COGS can come from things like inventory costs, carrier costs, or charging costs.
Read 23 tweets

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