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Hospitalization rates are rising across the South; with higher positivity among older Americans as an epidemic that started in younger people expands into more vulnerable cohorts. Nearly 40% of Texas’ fatalities are residents of long-term care facilities. dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/CO…
From Texas Tribune 7/10/20: "Nearly 40% of Texas’ fatalities were residents of long-term care facilities, such as nursing homes or assisted living facilities. Other hotspots include prisons and meatpacking plants." texastribune.org/2020/07/10/tex…
Bloomberg - "Covid-19 Cases Hit Record at Florida Long-Term Care Centers" bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
WSJ - "Covid-19 Cases Jump in Sunbelt Nursing Homes
Current surge that has mostly infected the young now shows signs of reaching more-vulnerable elderly." wsj.com/articles/covid…
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Scott Gottlieb, MD
@ScottGottliebMD
THREAD: This is a hard moment - but it’s a brief moment in our long history. It’s six months until we get to a technology to end the Covid epidemic through vaccines or medicines. We need to act collectively to reduce our overall threat during this time of risk and uncertainty.
The priority should be on preserving life, keeping kids safely in school this fall and businesses safely operating. That means maximizing measures that allow those things to happen, while reducing our individual risk of contracting and spreading Covid. Chief is universal masking.
We need to all work together to take steps to reduce our collective risk so we can maximize the opportunity to do those things most important: running our businesses, sending our kids to school, seeing grandparents and keeping them safe, getting medical care when we need it.
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Scott Gottlieb, MD
@ScottGottliebMD
When we see data showing in hospital mortality for Covid patients aged 35-44 of almost 5% we should keep in mind — that’s exceptionally high; especially since criteria for admission is generally just an oxygen saturation below 93%. Many of these young people are otherwise healthy
To provide some rough basis for comparison, the in hospital death rate for pneumonia across all age groups is 3.3% — and this CDC data is skewed heavily toward elderly patients who are more likely to be admitted for pneumonia.
Here’s data on hospitalizations for ordinary pneumonia; they skew heavily toward older cohorts. On a relative basis to comparable diagnoses, that almost 5% in hospital death rate for 35-44 year-olds with Covid disease represents a lot of excess mortality cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/m…
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Scott Gottlieb, MD
@ScottGottliebMD
COVID19 hospitalization trends of select states that have made the most consistent reporting on new daily Covid hospitalizations. (Figures shown with and without New York, which drove a lot of the early national hospitalizations)
After reductions we've seen a general leveling off in new daily Covid hospitalizations in many states, and increases in some. This shows average new daily hospitalizations across states reporting data. We look at average daily figures by week to smooth out day-to-day fluctuations
An important caution on the last figure, the number of states reporting daily hospitalizations has increased by five over the entire time period being observed, and this increased reporting is contributing to some of the average rising daily totals observed over the time period.
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