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Rob Lee Profile picture
@RALee85
Jul 12, 2020 • 735 tweets • >60 min read • Read on X
There was a skirmish between Armenian and Azeri forces near the border in Tovuz. Azerbaijan's MoD said that two of its soldiers have been killed and another 5 were wounded.
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
Unconfirmed photo of the Azerbaijani UAZ-469 destroyed during today’s skirmish between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces. 2/
t.me/milinfolive/61… Image
Azerbaijan's MoD released a video reportedly showing an Armenian "strongpoint" struck by Azerbaijani forces. They said they employed mortars, artillery, and tanks last night to strike Armenian positions. 3/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-un…
Azerbaijan also announced that an Azerbaijani Lieutenant, Rashad Makhmudov, was killed during fighting last night. They said that Armenia used heavy machine guns; grenade launchers; sniper rifles; 60, 82, and 120 mm mortars; and artillery. 4/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
Azerbaijan also reportedly lost a UAV during the fighting, which appears to be an Israeli-built Elbit Systems’ SkyStriker loitering munition. 5/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
banak.info/2020/07/bacari… ImageImageImage
According to Armenia, the fighting began after an Azerbaijaini UAZ-469 attempted to cross the border, which was destroyed by Armenian forces. Azerbaijani forces then employed artillery fire to try to seize a strongpoint. 6/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
Purportedly a 122mm artillery round fired from an Azerbaijani D-30 howitzer that landed in Chinari. The Armenian MoD has claimed that Azerbaijan is shelling the town with 82 and 120mm mortars as well as artillery. 7/
vk.com/armenia_milita… ImageImage
Unconfirmed video from an Armenian military blog that purportedly shows the Azerbaijani UAZ-469 jeep before it was destroyed by Armenian forces. 8/
vk.com/armenia_milita…
The Azerbaijani MoD released another UAV video showing artillery strikes on Armenian positions. They said the strikes were on a radar station, a vehicle storage depot, and a battalion HQ. 9/
mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-…
UAV footage of an Azerbaijani artillery strike on an Armenian defensive position. 10/
mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-…
One aspect of the wide-spread adoption of UAVs by various militaries that isn't mentioned enough is the role they play in information operations. We've now seen Turkey employ UAV footage in Idlib and Libya to great effect and Baku appears to be taking a similar approach. 11/
This can also be critical for domestic messaging. If one side releases a number of videos of their artillery and aircraft destroying the other side's equipment, the perception of the conflict by domestic and foreign audiences will be influenced (even if that side lost). 12/
In the case of Idlib, Turkey, by most measures, wasn't the winner. Turkey lost dozens of soldiers and accepted Russian/SAA presence up to the M4 highway. But publishing all of those UAV videos demonstrated impressive military capabilities and allowed Anakra to save face. 13/
This might actually be useful for de-escalation. Baku can publish videos of its military launching punitive strikes against Armenia (to satisfy its domestic audience), which could make it easier to ultimately accept a military reversal, without the domestic blowback. 14/
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Azerbaijan released another video showing precision-guided munitions, possibly one of their Israeli-built loitering munitions, striking Armenian targets. 16/
mod.gov.az/en/news/destro…
The Armenian MoD has also begun releasing videos of its artillery strikes on Azerbaijani targets. 17/
vk.com/armenia_milita…
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And Armenia released UAV footage showing a strike on an Azerbaijani vehicle. 19/
vk.com/armenia_milita…
The Armenian MoD released a video purportedly showing them shooting down an Israel-made Elbit Hermes 900 UAV. 20/
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Azerbaijan released more UAV footage showing a strike on an Armenian artillery battery command post. 22/
Current status of Russo-Turkish relations: they are fighting against each other in Libya, Russian and Turkish soldiers were wounded in a joint patrol in Syria (where they were fighting each other in March), and Russia's ally Armenia and Turkey's ally Azerbaijan are fighting.
And Turkey has Russia's premier long-range air defense system, which it said was absolutely critical to its national security and risked CAATSA-related sanctions for, that is sitting idle at Murted Airbase (even though it is ready to be used).
More Azerbaijani UAV footage showing a strike on an Armenian "permanent fire position." One thing that is notable, is that most of the munitions employed in these videos are relatively small, and are causing much less damage than a 500lb bomb would. 25/
mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-…
Another Azerbaijani UAV video showing a strike on an Armenian "company stronghold." One obvious after action lesson from this conflict is that both sides need to do a better job of concealing their positions from the air. 26/
mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-…
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More UAV footage from the Azerbaijani MoD showing a building on fire. Still hard to assess how militarily effective these strikes have been. The videos haven't shown Armenia losing many vehicles, artillery pieces, or other critical equipment. 29/
mod.gov.az/az/news/dusmen…
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A map of the fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan from Kommersant. 33/
kommersant.ru/doc/4416814?fr… Image
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Another video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing a strike on an Armenian position. It looks like an Israeli Spike NLOS was used. 37/

mod.gov.az/az/news/dusmen…
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Another video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing a strike on an Armenian “fire position”. Looks like another Spike NLOS ATGM missile and UAV footage. 39/
t.me/warjournal/6937
Video of the funeral of Major General Polad Hashimov and Colonel Ilgar Mirzayev who were both killed yesterday during the fighting with Armenia. 40/
mod.gov.az/az/news/sehid-…
Video from the Azerbaijani military of what they claim is an Armenian military vehicle on fire. 41/
mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-…
Another video from the Azerbaijani military showing what appears to be a Spike NLOS strike on an Armenian "field control point." Despite Armenia's air defenses, Baku continues to strike Armenian targets successfully, often with stand-off munitions. 42/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-fi…
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan posted a video on his facebook page stating that the Armenian Air Force's Su-30SM fighters are on combat duty ready to defend Armenia's airspace. 43/
facebook.com/nikol.pashinya…
The press secretary of the Ministry of Defense of Armenia, Shushan Stepanyan, said earlier today that the situation along the border remained relatively calm last night and today. Though she said Armenia shot down two Azerbaijani UAVs last night. 44/
tass.ru/mezhdunarodnay…
Footage reportedly from an Armenian Army-55M UAV showing Azerbaijani armored vehicles. 45/
vk.com/armenia_milita…
Additional UAV images showing Azerbaijani tanks reportedly from an Armenian Army-55M UAV. 46/
vk.com/armenia_milita… ImageImageImageImage
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Video released by the Armenian MoD purportedly of Azerbaijani D-30 artillery and mortar fire on the towns of Aygepar and Movses. 53/
t.me/warjournal/6957
Photos reportedly of mortar or D-30 artillery fire on the towns of Aygepar and Movses. 54/
t.me/warjournal/6957 ImageImage
Azerbaijan claimed that Armenia violated the ceasefire 89 times employing "large-caliber machine guns, sniper rifles, 60, 82 and 120mm mortars and the other artillery pieces to escalate the situation." 55/
mod.gov.az/en/news/ceasfi…
Azerbaijan apparently shot down an Armenian X-55 UAV.
t.me/warjournal/6964 Image
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Video from Azerbaijan’s CBC news agency showing fighting along the border in Tovuz. 58/
t.me/new_militaryco…
Photos of an Armenian Ministry of Emergency Situations' vehicle that was destroyed in an Azerbaijani UAV strike. 59/
vk.com/armenia_milita… ImageImage
Early this morning, the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan published a video with the caption, "The Armenian units destroyed an enemy tank and artillery and mortar positions that were shelling our settlements and positions." 60/
facebook.com/shushanstepany…
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The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan released another video that supposedly showed Azerbaijani soldiers recovering the bodies of 3 members of the Yashma SOF unit. 62/
vk.com/armenia_milita…
facebook.com/shushanstepany…
Photos from that Armenian UAV video. 63/
facebook.com/shushanstepany… ImageImageImage
Azerbaijani UAV footage that purportedly shows the aftermath of a strike on an Armenian barracks. 64/
mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-…
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Another Azerbaijani MoD video showing a strike on an Armenian vehicle they claimed was used to deliver reserves to the front lines. As with other videos released by the Azerbaijani MoD, the question is how much military value these strikes have. 68/
mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-…
69/
Death toll thus far:
Armenia: 4 KIA
Azerbaijan: 12 KIA
70/
 ria.ru/20200716/15744…
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Photo reportedly of an Azerbaijani Elbit SkyStriker loitering munition that was supposedly downed by Armenian EW systems. 73/
vk.com/armenia_milita… Image
NKR forces reportedly shot down an Azerbaijani Israeli-made Orbiter 3 UAV this morning. 74/
t.me/warjournal/7007 ImageImageImageImage
More photos of the Azerbaijani Israeli-made Orbiter 3 UAV.
t.me/warjournal/7007 ImageImageImageImage
The Armenian MoD's press secretary published photos that purportedly show Azerbaijan removing damaged tanks and armored vehicles from the front lines. 76/
facebook.com/shushanstepany…
banak.info/2020/07/Bacari… ImageImageImage
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The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman, Shushan Stepanyan, claims that the vehicles were damaged by "special combat UAVs of Armenian production". 78/
The spokeswoman for Armenia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Anna A. Naghdalyan, said that Armenia isn't happy with Israel's arms sales to Azerbaijan and intends to raise the issue with Israel. 79/
interfax.ru/world/717999
80/
The head of Armenia's Davaro UAV company, David Galoyan, said that the Israeli-made UAVs that crashed in Armenian territory have been transferred to their UAV companies to study them. 81/
vk.com/armenia_milita… Image
82/
RT's head, Margarita Simonyan, recently wrote a very critical post about Armenia criticizing it for not recognizing Russia's annexation of Crimea and said the conflict with Baku is an internal affair. Then all of the CSTO's social media pages shared it. (h/t @ArtyomTonoyan) 83/ Image
Armenia is a CSTO member and an ally of Russia's, while Azerbaijan is not. While the CSTO can say that fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh doesn't violate its Article 4, this is more difficult to argue in this case since the fighting is along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. 84/ Image
The Armenian MoD showed off some of the Azerbaijani UAVs and loitering munitions that crashed or were downed during the conflict including the Israeli-made ThunderB, Orbiter 3, and Skystriker. 85/
t.me/SputnikArmenia… ImageImageImageImage
The Armenian MoD showed off some of the Azerbaijani UAVs and loitering munitions that crashed or were downed during the conflict including the Israeli-made ThunderB, Orbiter 3, and Skystriker. 86/
t.me/warjournal/7059 ImageImageImage
More Azerbaijani UAV/loitering munition wreckage displayed by the Armenian MoD. 87/ ImageImageImage
More photos of the downed UAVs and loitering munitions displayed by the Armenian MoD, including Thunder-B, Orbiter 2 and 3, Skystriker, and Harop. They claim the large UAV is a Hermes 180 but it looks like a Hermes 200. 88/
Photos: Арам Нерсесян
vk.com/milinfolive?z=… ImageImageImageImage
More photos of the downed UAVs and loitering munitions displayed by the Armenian MoD, including Thunder-B, Orbiter 2 and 3, Skystriker, and Harop. They claim the large UAV is a Hermes 180 but it looks like a Hermes 200. 89/
Photos: Арам Нерсесян
vk.com/milinfolive?z=… ImageImageImageImage
More photos of the downed UAVs and loitering munitions displayed by the Armenian MoD. 90/
Photos: Арам Нерсесян
vk.com/milinfolive?z=… ImageImageImageImage
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As others have pointed out, many of these UAVs and loitering munitions were likely not downed during the recent fighting. 92/
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The Azerbaijani MoD said that they downed an Armenian X-55 UAV today (one of three they said they shot down over the past two days) in the Tovuz region. 94/
t.me/milinfolive/61…
Photos of the Armenian X-55 UAV that the Azerbaijani MoD claims they shot down today. 95/
mod.gov.az/ru/news/unicht…
vk.com/milinfolive?w=… ImageImageImageImage
An Armenian military blog suggests that some of the wreckage displayed by the Armenian MoD shows a Spike NLOS missile. A few of the videos released by the Azerbaijani MoD appeared to show Spike NLOS missiles used to strike Armenian targets. 96/
vk.com/armenia_milita… Image
Video of the UAVs. Armenia said they shot down or downed with EW systems 13 Azerbaijani UAVs. 97/
t.me/new_militaryco…
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Just after Russia and Armenia held a joint counter-UAV exercise, Turkey and Azerbaijan are now holding a joint training exercise. 100/
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Armenia announced a sudden combat readiness check of its forces today in response to the joint training exercise between Turkey and Azerbaijan. 102/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
Video of Turkish Air Force F-16 fighters arriving in Azerbaijan to participate in the "TurAz Qartalı-2020” Joint Exercise. 103/
mod.gov.az/en/news/turkis…
Another video from the joint Turkish-Azerbaijani training exercise. 104/
t.me/new_militaryco…
Among the Armenian military equipment involved in today's combat readiness inspection are Smerch MLRS and Tochka-U tactical ballistic missile systems. 105/
facebook.com/shushanstepany… ImageImageImageImage
Video purportedly of an Armenian-made loitering munition in action. 106/
vk.com/armenia_milita…
Another video from the joint Turkish-Azerbaijani TurAz exercise with Turkish T129 and Azerbaijani Mi-35M and Mi-17 helicopters. 107/
mod.gov.az/en/news/combat…
108/
Azerbaijan's Minval claims that Russia sent 7 flights of Il-76 aircraft to Armenia during last month's fighting to deliver 280 tons of military equipment, including Krasukha EW systems, Kvant 1L222 Avtobaza ELINT systems, and Hebo-M radars. 109/
minval.az/news/124018159 ImageImageImage
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A write-up of the complaints from Azerbaijan regarding Russia's reported arms deliveries to Armenia last month. 111/
eurasianet.org/aliyev-airs-gr…
Armenia showed off some of the new UAVs it is developing. 112/
t.me/military_arm/1…
Some of the Armenian UAVs displayed. 113/
t.me/military_arm/1… ImageImageImageImage
Video of the Armenian Drakon (Dragon) loitering munition undergoing tests. The Drakon has a reported max range of 100km and a payload of 10-15 kg. 114/
vk.com/armenia_milita…
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Armenia's MFA claims that Armenia has shot down two Azerbaijani helicopters and 3 UAVs. 117/
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Armenian MFA statement: "Early this morning, the Azerbaijani side launched missile attacks along the entire line of contact targeting also the peaceful settlements, including the capital Stepanakert." 119/
mfa.am/en/interviews-…
The Azerbaijani MoD confirmed the loss of one helicopter (they say the crew survived), and claimed they destroyed 12 Osa air defense systems, adding that they "decided to launch a counter-offensive operation of our troops along the entire front" 120/
mod.gov.az/en/news/azerba…
Notably, the US Embassy in Azerbaijan released a warning to US citizens earlier this week due to heightened tensions. 121/
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The Azerbaijani MoD denies Armenia's claims that they lost 3 tanks, 2 helicopters, and 3 UAVs, but they already confirmed that one of their helicopters was shot down. 126/
mod.gov.az/en/news/minist… ImageImage
Armenia posted a video showing two Azerbaijani tanks (they look like T-72M1) getting hit by a munition. 127/
Video of Armenian military and Artsakh T-72 tanks and towed artillery in Stepanakert. 128/
t.me/military_arm/4…
Photos reportedly of Azerbaijani armored vehicles on fire. 129/
nkrmil.am/news/view/2907 ImageImage
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Armenia released another video showing two armored vehicles on fire. The 1st looks like an engineering vehicle driving past BMP-2 on fire. The 2nd look's like a tank, and it is clear its ammunition was struck, which led to the fire. 131/
The Azerbaijani MoD says its "counter-offensive operation continues successfully" adding that they are striking Armenian command posts, maneuver forces, military equipment, and facilities with artillery and aviation assets. No footage released yet. 132/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-az… Image
It looks like the first vehicle on fire is an IMR-2 engineering vehicle and the second is a T-72 tank with a pair of BMP-3s. 133/ ImageImage
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Video from the Armenian MoD showing two more Azerbaijani tanks (they look like T-72) being struck by munitions, presumably artillery. Poor dispersion by the Azerbaijani force here. 135/
Video of Turkish journalists near the fighting. 136/
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A couple of initial points. First, I am skeptical of the claims made from both sides of what they destroyed and how the fighting is going, but it is clear this is a major escalation. In addition, the fighting right now has more of a Russian-Turkish element than normal. 138/
Second, a key lesson from the fighting in July is that information operations are key. So far, Armenia has released a number of videos showing Azerbaijani vehicles being destroyed (adding credibility to their claims), while Azerbaijan has not. 139/
That doesn't mean Baku is lying about all of their claims, but by being slower to release this footage, they are ceding the narrative of how the conflict is going to Armenia. I'm sure Azerbaijan will post UAV footage, but publishing it quickly is important. 140/
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Longer video from an Armenian Telegram channel of artillery strikes on Azerbaijani tanks and IFVs. You can see a large number of BMP-2 situated in a line. 142/
t.me/military_arm/4…
What looks like an Azerbaijani BMP-2 on fire. 143/
t.me/military_arm/4… Image
This is not how you want your forces situated with an artillery or aviation threat. 144/ ImageImageImage
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Azerbaijan's MoD claimed that it has "liberated" several villages. 148/
TASS reports that the Foreign Minister of Russia, Sergei Lavrov, and the Foreign Minister of Turkey, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, had a phone call today to discuss the fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 149/
tass.ru/mezhdunarodnay…
Photos of damage in Stepanakert from Azerbaijani strikes. 150/
t.me/reartsakh/3456 Image
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From the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman. 152/
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman also denies that Azerbaijan has taken back 6 villages. 153/
The Azerbaijani MoD has begun releasing UAV footage of their strikes on Armenian targets. This footage, which looks quite similar to that of a Turkish TB2 UCAV, shows munitions destroying Armenian vehicles in cover. 154/
They look like Osa air defense systems. Azerbaijan previously claimed that they destroyed 12 Armenian Osa AD systems today. It looks like 3 of them were damaged or destroyed here, possibly by MAM-L munitions. 155/ ImageImageImageImage
Earlier today, there was an unknown aircraft from Turkey flying along the border with Armenia, which later crossed into Armenia. Was this a Turkish TB2 UCAV that flew from Turkey to conduct these strikes or were these operated by Azerbaijan? 156/
There are obviously a ton of very important implications if this was a Turkish TB2 operated by Turkey, which would be a very significant escalation in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. Armenia is also a CSTO ally of Russia, and the collective security component should apply.157/ Image
As others have noted, Azerbaijan and Turkey announced that Baku would purchase 6 TB2 UCAVs in June, but I haven't seen confirmation that the deal was completed and the TB2 arrived in Azerbaijan. 158/
defensenews.com/unmanned/2020/…
From Armenia's official twitter account. 159/
The Clash Report Telegram channel that published many of the videos of Turkish TB2 UCAV strikes in Syria and Libya (and is clearly close to Turkish authorities) also says these were TB2 UCAV strikes in this video. 160/
t.me/ClashReport/644 Image
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Another thing to keep an eye on. 164/
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman claims that Azerbaijan has been employing its largest caliber MLRS systems, including the Smerch, T-300 Kasirga, and the Belarusian Polonez, which has a max range of 200km. 165/
facebook.com/shushanstepany… Image
During previous flare ups, including July, both sides chose to not use their longest range systems. If this is true, the escalation risks are even greater as is the risk that each side begins to strike military targets or cities deep in Armenian or Azerbaijani territory. 166/
*Azerbaijan's variant of the Polonez has a 300km range. After the fighting in 2016, Russia supplied Iskander-M ballistic missile systems to Armenia, reportedly straight from the Russian military (i.e. not MTCR compliant, though that may have changed). 167/
iz.ru/1036842/anton-…
Even the MTCR-compliant export variant of the Iskander has a range of 280km, which means Armenia could strike targets across most of Azerbaijan from Armenian territory (or Baku if they launch from Nagorno-Karabakh). Armenia also received 4 Su-30SM fighters last December. 168/ ImageImage
In short, both sides have longer-range aircraft and artillery/MLRS systems that can strike each other's capitals, a capability that they effectively lacked before 2016. During the fighting in July, both sides chose to not use these systems, but that seems to have changed. 169/
Azerbaijan released a second video that also appears to be from a TB2 UCAV, showing a strike on another vehicle in cover (look's like an Osa with camouflage netting), and damaged armored vehicles, possibly BMP-2 or 2S1 Gvozdika. 170/
Screenshots from that TB2 UCAV footage. The first shows what looks like an Osa AD system with a tarp/camo netting. The others show an armored column of at least 8 vehicles. The lead vic is smoking and the 2nd (and maybe 3rd) appears to be damaged. 171/ ImageImageImageImage
Azerbaijan claimed that that the vehicles in that armored column were abandoned by Armenian forces as they retreated. Unclear what damaged those vehicles. The TB2 could have been supporting MLRS or artillery in that case. 172/ Image
Video taken from Stepanakert that reportedly shows an Azerbaijani UAV being shot down. 173/
t.me/military_arm/5…
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The Armenian MoD released another video showing Azerbaijani BTRs (the front might be a BTR-82A) being struck by a munition, and footage of an Azerbaijani column with a number of damaged or destroyed trucks and a BMP-3 and IMR-3. 175/
BMP-3 attempting to tow another BMP-3 with a burning truck in the foreground, and an IMR-3 vehicle behind a truck and next to some other vehicle with another BMP-3 in the third frame. 176/ ImageImageImage
I guess this Kavkaz 2020 photo op wasn't good enough. 177/ ImageImage
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If you can speak Russian, @CentreAST wrote a good book in 2018 about the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh with background on the military and security issues (including arms imports from Russia), which is free to download.
cast.ru/books/v-ozhida…
Another TB2 UCAV video from Azerbaijan showing air or artillery strikes on Armenian positions. It appears that most if not all of the targets in this video were not struck by the TB2, which is instead providing targeting support. 180/
Another TB2 video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing what appears to be 3 Strela-10 air defense systems in cover being struck, likely from MAM-L TB2 munitions. 181/
Turkey admitted that during fighting in Idlib in Feb-March they employed F-16 fighters to shoot down Syrian aircraft and likely to bomb targets while in Turkish airspace. They also can launch SOM-J JSF stand-off missiles with a 150 + nm range. 182/
I don't know if that claim is true, but it is possible. In particular, Turkey used F-16 with long-range glide bombs or stand-off munitions to strike longer-range air defense systems in Idlib in March while using TB2 to target shorter-range systems. 183/ ImageImage
Another claim by the spokeswoman of the Armenian MoD about Azerbaijani losses. 184/ Image
Video from Nagorno-Karabakh's Artsakh Defence Army. It is quite graphic, so I won't post the entire thing but it starts with wreckage supposedly of an Azerbaijani helicopter that was shot down today. 185/
The video shows 8 bodies from the Azerbaijani military as well as three BMP-2, one of which was a catastrophic kill while the other two appear to be damaged/mobility kills. 186/
vk.com/armenia_milita… ImageImageImageImage
Look's like a TM-62P2 anti-tank mine and a pair of RPG-7. 187/ ImageImage
Video of Armenian reservists being called up and sent to Nagorno-Karabakh. 188/
The Azerbaijani MoD claims they destroyed 22 tanks and armored vehicles, 15 Osa air defense systems, 18 UAVs, 8 artillery pieces, 3 ammo depots, and killed or wounded 550 servicemen. 189/
t.me/ClashReport/654 Image
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A bad sign. 191/
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Video purportedly from Nagarno-Karabakh of a rocket fired from a 9K58 Smerch MLRS (possibly a 9M55K) that didn’t detonate. 195/
t.me/reartsakh/3540
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Azerbaijan released another TB2 video showing strikes, presumably from MAM-L munitions, on three systems in cover. The first and third appear to be Osa (Osa-AK/AKM), but I'm not sure about the second target with a tarp on top (Tor-M2KM?). 197/
1st is an Osa, 2nd I believe is also an Osa, and 3rd @pfc_joker points out appears to be an Osa 9T217 transporter-loader vehicle. 198/ ImageImageImageImage
Another video with TB2 UCAV footage showing a strike on an Armenian T-72 tank. 199/
Nagarno-Karabakh's Artsakh Defence Army published a video of some of the Azerbaijani casualties, presumably from the earlier video with 3 BMP-2. I won't post the video, but It shows at least 9 bodies and some of their identification documents. 200/
ImageImageImageImage
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Nagorno-Karabakh officials claimed earlier today that their forces destroyed 33 Azerbaijani tanks, 4 helicopters, 27 UAVs, and 4 armored vehicles. I would take this with some skepticism. 202/ ImageImage
Another photo purportedly from Nagorno-Karabakh of a Smerch MLRS rocket launched by Azerbaijani forces. 203/
t.me/milinfolive/63… Image
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman claimed that Azerbaijan used its TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS systems early this morning. 204/
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An ominous statement from the Azerbaijani MoD. 205/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-en… Image
The Azerbaijani MoD released a video purportedly showing several Armenian soldiers (I counted 8) who were killed in the fighting. They claim that the high ground near Talysh was cleared of Armenian/NK forces, who they say suffered heavy casualties. 206/
mod.gov.az/en/news/advant…
Take this with a grain of salt. Semyon Pegov’s WarGonzo Telegram channel is claiming that Turkish SOF is preparing to be sent to Azerbaijan because Azerbaijan’s initial offensive failed to achieve its goals. 207/
t.me/wargonzo/3481 Image
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan claims that "several dozen" enemy bodies are behind Armenian lines after their counterattack. 208/
facebook.com/shushanstepany… Image
Another video released by the Azerbaijani MoD showing what appears to be AGS-30 grenade launchers, Podnos 82mm mortars, BM-21 Grad MLRS, and towed artillery pieces firing on Armenian positions. 209/
mod.gov.az/az/news/bolmel…
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The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan said that Azerbaijan employed TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS systems this morning but said they didn't suffer any losses from its salvo. She also posted this video, but I'm not sure what the context is. 211/
facebook.com/shushanstepany…
Azerbaijani Major General Mayis Barkhudarov: "We will fight to destroy the enemy completely." He also said that there are fierce battles currently going on. 212/
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Nagorno-Karabakh acknowledged the loss of another 15 soldiers, bringing its total losses to 31 KIA so far. 213/
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
Armenian Defense Ministry spokesman Artsrun Hovhannisyan said that ~200 Nagorno-Karabakh soldiers have been wounded thus far. 214/
ria.ru/20200928/karab…
reuters.com/article/idL8N2…
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Two more Armenian T-72 tanks struck by TB2 UCAVs. One of the advantages of TB2 UCAVs with MAM-L munitions compared to artillery and other forms of fire support is that they can easily destroy armor in cover. 217/
The Azerbaijani MoD said that their artillery, in this case, 2S7 Pion 203 mm heavy artillery pieces, engaged Armenian artillery from its 5th Mountain Rifle Regiment. They said Armenian artillery was striking Azerbaijani positions near Aghdara. 218/
mod.gov.az/en/news/enemy-…
The use of 2S7 Pion, as well as Smerch, TOS-1A, and reportedly Polonez and Kasirga MLRS, which Azerbaijan typically has not employed during fighting with Armenian or Nagorno-Karabakh forces is another indication of how different the current fighting is. 219/
Azerbaijan has an advantage in heavy and long-range artillery and MLRS, in addition to UAVs, UCAVs, and loitering munitions. Baku employed its Israeli-made loitering munitions and ATGMs heavily in July, but wasn't able to translate that into battlefield gains. 220/
Despite greater defense spending and high-tech arms imports, Azerbaijan had limited success in the 2016 fighting but didn't take back much if any terrain in July while sustaining casualties. This time Baku is determined to achieve tangible successes to avoid further protests.221/
This makes this iteration of the fighting more dangerous and more likely to escalate. If Baku doesn't achieve tangible successes (i.e. retake territory), it risks more public anger as happened in July, and Armenia is unlikely to agree to a cease fire if it loses territory. 222/
Another difference from July is that Azerbaijani published videos of strikes on targets that weren't of particularly high military value, but not this time. In this video you can see an Armenian D-30 howitzer's truck, T-72, and Osa AD system hit. 223/
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Ural truck with 122mm ammunition for the D-30 howitzer, Osa AD system (probably an Osa-AKM), and T-72 tank. Azerbaijan has been specifically targeting front-line Armenian air defenses with TB2 (e.g. Osa and Strela-10), which is typical in the beginning of a conflict. 224/ ImageImageImageImage
Semyon Pegov and others are claiming that Russian private military contractors including Donbas veterans are ready to go to Nagorno-Karabakh to fight on behalf of Armenia whenever they receive the signal. 225/
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If Armenia struggles to overcome Azerbaijan's greater military hardware and fire support assets, this might be a way for Russia to support Armenia without employing direct military force (which it doesn't want to do). 226/
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Armenia released a video showing an ATGM strike on a truck (possibly artillery or MLRS), and artillery strikes near two Azerbaijani tanks and an artillery piece. 229/
Screenshots of the ATGM and artillery strikes. On second thought, it look's as though the last target is also a tank and not an artillery piece. 230/ ImageImageImageImage
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Another video released by Armenia that shows strikes on an Azerbaijani armor column with tanks and IFVs, as well as a strike on a building that was presumably being used by Azerbaijani forces. 233/
Screenshots from the video. 234/ ImageImageImageImage
Armenian D-30 122mm howitzer crews in action. 235/
Another video, presumably of artillery strikes on Azerbaijani positions and vehicles, released by the Artsakh Defence Army. 236/
Alexander Kots claims this is a video of an Azerbaijani Israeli-made Harop loitering munition. Harops were used successfully during the 2016 fighting. 237/
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Kots also posted a video of what appears to be a downed aircraft. This was reportedly an An-2 aircraft. 238/
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Another video purportedly of an Azerbaijani loitering munition over Martakert. 239/
Pretty obvious this is related to the fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan. 240/
Both Reuters and the Guardian are reporting that Syrians from Idlib are being flown by Turkey (or planning to) to fight for Azerbaijan. There have been a number of reports on social media and elsewhere saying the same thing. 241/
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"Armenia’s ambassador to Moscow said on Monday that Turkey had sent around 4,000 fighters from northern Syria to Azerbaijan and that they were fighting there". Reuters reports that the fighters would get paid $1,500 a month. 242/
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Video reportedly of Armenians in Georgia trying to return to Armenia to fight but being blocked by Georgian border guards. 243/
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Another photo of a Smerch MLRS rocket reportedly launched from Azerbaijani forces. Of course, this could be a photo of one of the same rockets photographed before. 244/
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The Armenian Ambassador to Moscow Vardan Toganyan said, "We believe that should the need arise, we will request Russia [for additional military assistance]," but "As of today, we don’t think that we need additional troops or other forces," 246/
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Toganyan also said that Armenia will use its Iskander-M ballistic missile systems if Turkey employs F-16 fighters in Nagorno-Karabakh, but said that Armenian air defenses are currently coping with the threat from UAVs. 247/
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The Caliber az site posted a video showing what appears to be an Armenian/Nagorno-Karabakh observation post with two Ural-4320 trucks that was overrun. The video shows ~10 bodies. 248/
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The Arsakh Defense Army announced that another 26 soldiers were killed today. 250/
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That brings the two-day death total for the Artsakh Defense Army to 84. 252/
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Video purportedly of the wreckage of an Azerbaijani UAV or loitering munition. 253/
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Regarding the presumed downed An-2 aircraft. 255/
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Another video from the Armenian MoD of what appear to be artillery strikes on Azerbaijani positions, including vehicles on fire. There have been a number of cases of Azerbaijani tanks or armored vehicles catching on fire after their ammunition was hit.257/
The Times is also reporting that Turkey is sending Syrians to Azerbaijan to fight against Armenian forces. 258/
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It isn't surprising that Armenia would hold back its newest and most sophisticated air defense systems from the front lines, to protect critical defense sites and cities. But in Syria, Tor-M2 was Russia's most effective air defense system against COTS UAVs. 260/
Interestingly, Azerbaijan has mostly published videos from TB2 UCAVs thus far, but many of the videos they released from the July fighting was from Spike NLOS ATGM missiles. 261/
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Deleted my previous tweet because there was a duplicate. From the Azerbaijani MoD's videos released thus far, they show 6 Osa (likely Osa-AKM) 9A33-series TELARs and 1 9T217 Transporter/Transloader struck by munitions (presumably, MAM-L from TB2 UCAVs). 263/ Image
Photos of that 1 Osa 9T217 Transporter/Transloader and 3 Strela-10 air defense systems that were also struck in the Azerbaijani TB2 UCAV footage. 264/ ImageImage
Azerbaijan released a photo of artillery fire over the night. Look's like 2S7 Pion 203mm heavy artillery. 265/
What appears to be an Azerbaijani 2S7 Pion 203mm heavy artillery piece firing on Armenian targets. 266/ Image
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Azerbaijan released another TB2 UCAV video, presumably taken from last night, of a strike on Armenian tanks. Keep in mind that MAM-L need an almost direct hit for a mobility kill let alone a K-kill. Regardless, Armenian forces need more dispersion. 272/
Video of an Azerbaijani loitering munition, possibly an Israeli-made Harop, striking Armenian soldiers in a trench line. 273/
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Video of Azerbaijani artillery and MLRS engaging Armenian targets. 274/
Armenians soldiers engaging Azerbaijani soldiers on a hill top with small arms fire. 275/
Nagorno-Karabakh air defense forces (looks like it is an Osa-AKM) apparently shooting down an Azerbaijani Orbiter-1K loitering munition. 276/
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Reportedly the wreckage of an Azerbaijani UAV, possibly a Hermes-450. 277/
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Video of Azerbaijani TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS during on Armenian targets. It appears they quickly change positions after launching their salvo (they have a short max range). 278/
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The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan shared this video saying that Armenian Igla MANPADS shot down 2 helicopters, but the video appears to show the tail of one or two An-2 aircraft (possibly the same one that was shot down earlier). 279/
I'll wait for confirmation that this was from a Turkish F-16. It could have been from an Azerbaijani Air Force MiG-29, but I would note that Turkish F-16s shot down Syrian Air Force Su-24 and L-39 aircraft in March while remaining in Turkish airspace. 280/
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Another video from the Armenian MoD that shows strikes on several Azerbaijani armored vehicles as well as infantry. Again, the pronounced fires are from the vehicles' ammunition storage getting struck by a munition. 281/
Semyon Pegov showing Armenian D-20 152mm howitzers in action. 282/
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Another video of Armenian D-30 howitzers from Semyon Pegov. 283/
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Armenian mortar fire. 284/
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Video from earlier today reportedly of some kind of aircraft, possibly a UAV, getting shot down northeast of Stepanakert. 285/
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A bus in Vardenis was destroyed earlier today. Reportedly, the driver was the only person inside at the time and survived. This is fairly significant as Vardenis is in Armenia proper, and the M-11 is the main highway from Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh. 286/
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The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan
claimed that air forces (presumably, she's talking about TB2 UCAVs) were employed in the strike on Vardenis. Obviously, this was an attempt to prevent reinforcements from arriving from Armenia. 287/
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The Armenian MoD made a statement that the Turkish F-16 that allegedly downed the Armenian Su-25 took off from the Ganja Airport, and that Azerbaijani Su-25 and TB2 took off from the Dollyar Air Base to strike Vardenis, Mets, Masrik, and Sotk. 288/
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Video posted by Artsrun Hovhannisyan of that damaged bus in Vardenis. As a reminder, Azerbaijan destroyed a bus with Armenian reinforcements during they fighting in 2016 with an Israeli-made Harop loitering munition. 289/
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Photos from the air strike on that bus in Vardenis. 290/
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Video of an Azerbaijani aircraft being struck by a surface-to-air missile. Nagorno-Karabakh forces claim it was a helicopter but it looks more like an An-2 or other aircraft. 291/
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Another video posted by Armenian forces that appears to show another Azerbaijani UAV that was shot down. 292/
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Nagorno-Karabakh forces released a compilation video of various strikes on Azerbaijani forces, much of which has been published before. 293/
The end of the video shows some kind of aircraft being shot down. 294/
And a better look, from two different directions, of that Azerbaijani IMR-2 that was destroyed during the start of the fighting. Clearly hit by a ground-launched direct fire munition. 295/
Azerbaijan has a significant advantage in quantity and quality of fire support, but the question is whether they are employing fires effectively. Are they just shooting at Armenian targets, or are they using fires to support maneuver? I'm guessing it is mostly the former. 296/
Obviously, Armenian/NK forces have fortified and defensible positions, but Azerbaijan has a variety of UAV/UCAVs, as well as heavy artillery/MLRS, like the 2S7, Smerch, and TOS-1A, and well-equipped ground forces. Employed correctly, they should be able to retake territory. 297/
But a # of the videos have indicated Azerbaijan isn't always employing its forces effectively. In 2016 much of Azerbaijan's successes involved its elite forces, which sustained heavy casualties, but the gap between its elite and conventional forces is likely large. 298/ ImageImage
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Because of the gap between its elite and conventional forces, a limiting factor in Azerbaijan's offensive is whether it can limit casualties among its elite units, because its conventional forces will likely struggle to seize well-defended Armenian positions. 301/
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I wouldn't put much faith in these numbers. Armenian officials appear to have misidentified downed helicopters as UAVs or AN-2 on a few occasions already. The UAV and helicopter figure is almost certainly highly exaggerated. 303/
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Video of a press conference today with the Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hovhannisyan. He gave the same figures for Azerbaijani losses though the 137 figure is for tanks and other armored vehicles, and he said Azerbaijan suffered 1,900 total WIA and 790 KIA. 306/
He said the attack on the Vardenis region was conducted by Air Force assets, in particular UCAVs, and targeted civilian infrastructure as well as a bus. He reiterated the claim that a Turkish F-16 shot down an Armenian Su-25 today, killing its pilot. 307/
He also asked people to not call their friends in the military because they can then be targeted by Azerbaijan. 308/
Nagorno-Karabakh BM-21 Grad MLRS. 309/
Between this and attacks on the bus along the M-11 highway, it seems Azerbaijan is focusing air strikes on interdicting reinforcements from Armenia. One problem with TB2 is that the MAM-L is a small munition and not great at making a road impassable. 310/
I wouldn't be surprised if some of Armenia's top air defense assets and maybe its Su-30SM fighters are dedicated to protecting this vital supply line between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. It would also be a possible target for Turkish F-16s if they are indeed taking part. 311/
Pretty intense video of Nagorno-Karabakh forces under fire from Azerbaijani artillery and possibly air strikes. You can also hear the humming of UAVs, possibly loitering munitions. 312/
Nagorno-Karabakh forces employing a 9K111 Fagot ATGM against Azerbaijani forces. 313/
Nagorno-Karabakh soldiers shooting at UAVs, likely loitering munitions, with their small arms. You can hear the UAVs' humming sound throughout the video. 314/
The first video released by Azerbaijan showing loitering munitions in use. In the video you can see 4 Armenian T-72 tanks and one 2S3 Akatsiya self-propelled howitzer hit from overhead (many of which were in cover). (h/t @Rebel44CZ) 315/
The start of that video of Nagorno-Karabakh forces that presumably shows Armenian or Nagorno-Karabakh reinforcements arriving at the front. You can see at least one destroyed tank on the drive up. 316/
Screenshots showing a destroyed Armenian tank and Azerbaijani soldiers from Nagorno-Karabakh forces' fighting positions. 317/ ImageImageImageImage
Turkish PMC/paramilitaries or Syrian private military contractors flying from Libya to Azerbaijan? 318/
Video showing air strikes and air defenses reportedly in Stepanakert. Hard to be sure, but it appears surface-to-air missiles successfully engaged two aerial targets, likely UAVs. 319/
Screenshots of the four Armenian T-72 tanks struck by loitering munitions, likely Israeli-made Harop, from the last video released by Azerbaijan. 320/ ImageImageImageImage
Video released by the Armenian MoD of an aircraft shot down by Armenian forces, presumably from an Igla MANPADS. 321/
Longer clip from that video with the wreckage of that aircraft shot down by Armenian forces. 322/
And here comes that aircraft flying from Libya. 323/
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A possible explanation for that flight from Libya to Azerbaijan is that it is a chartered flight carrying the Bangladeshi expatriates who tried to tried to cross into Europe. Obviously, I'll wait to see where it goes from Baku. 325/
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Video from Alexander Kots from earlier today showing Armenian D-20 152mm howitzers firing on Azerbaijani positions. 326/
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An Armenian D-20 152mm howitzer battery firing on Azerbaijani targets today. 329/
Photo: Alexander Kots
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Unless I've missed something, there hasn't been much news today about territorial gains today between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Armenia's Artsrun Hovhannisyan said he wouldn't mention the status of which towns or positions they held or didn't. 330/
He said that he they might release updated casualties figures tomorrow, and gave obviously exaggerated figures for Azerbaijan. Baku didn't provide any figures (that I saw), and they haven't been releasing casualties #'s. The Az MoD's website has also been down fairly often. 330/
Strangely, Azerbaijan seems to be conceding the IO side of the fight, by having their government websites inaccessible and releasing limited details. Ultimately, neither side seemed interested in providing the status of the front line and their losses. 331/
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Nagorno-Karabakh's defense forces released another video with identification documents and bodies of Azerbaijani servicemen. 334/
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This is wreckage reportedly of two Harop loitering munitions shot down near Stepanakert at 4:30 a.m. this morning. Banak says a third also violated Nagorno-Karabakh's airspace. 336/
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Armenian losses according to Baku:
~2,300 WIA and KIA
~130 tanks and armored vehicles destroyed
>200 artillery pieces, MLRS, grenade launchers
~25 air defense systems (including S-300)
6 command post and OPs
5 ammo depots
~50 AT weapons
55 vehicles
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Azerbaijan claims the Armenian S-300 air defense system they destroyed was in Shushakend of the Khojaly region. They said Armenian forces were trying to retake lost positions in Madagiz and that fighting continues across the entire front. 338/
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Armenia (Ar) and Azerbaijan's (Az) losses according to each other:
Troops: Ar 2.3k WIA/KIA, Az 790 KIA, 1.9k WIA
Armor: Ar 130, Az 137
Artillery/MLRS: Ar ~200
UAVs: Az 72
Air Defense: Ar 25
Helicopters: Az 7
AT systems: Ar 50
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I assume both figures are exaggerated, but the two sides gave similar figures for armor losses (~130) and overall casualties (Armenia allegedly suffering ~2.3k WIA/KIA and Azerbaijan with 1.9k WIA/KIA). I assume Armenia's claim included KIA as part of WIA. 341/
Video of Azerbaijani MLRS systems launching rockets at Armenian positions. 342/
Another video of TB2 UCAV strikes on Armenian vehicles. In this case, one Armenian BMP and two BM-21 Grad MLRS were targeted while all three were in cover. Not sure the last BM-21 was a direct hit though. 343/
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Screenshots of the three strikes. The first look's like a BMP-2, and the other two look like BM-21 Grad MLRS. Note, the presumed MAM-L strike on the third target appears to hit the berm and kick up plenty of dirt. Not clear whether it was destroyed. 344/ ImageImageImageImage
Another TB2 UCAV video from the Azerbaijani MoD with presumed MAM-L strikes on a 122mm D-30 and 152mm D-20 howitzer. The D-20 actually look's like it is in pretty decent shape after the strike. 345/
Screenshots of the D-30 and D-20 howitzers after the TB2 UCAV strikes. Not clear to me whether the D-20 was actually knocked out of action. One thing to keep in mind with TB2 strikes with MAM-L munitions is they generally need to be direct hits to destroy armor or artillery. 346/ ImageImageImageImage
Warning graphic video. This shows another TB2 UCAV strike on what look's like an Ural-4320 truck with ~20 Armenian soldiers walking nearby. You can see around a dozen bodies at the end. 347/
New video from Azerbaijan showing TB2 strikes on two Armenian T-72 tanks. The first look's like a direct hit, but the second is a near miss. The second is possibly a mobility kill but likely didn't do too much damage. 348/
Screenshots of the two strikes on Armenian T-72 tanks. 349/ ImageImageImageImage
Armenian forces have faced a threat from loitering munitions before, but TB2 change the equation in that they are harder to hear/see overhead and can strike targets deeper past the front lines. Armenian reinforcements need to expect air attacks starting in Armenia proper. 350/ Image
We're also seeing Azerbaijan going after different targets now. On the first day, the emphasis was on Armenian air defenses, like Osas and Strela-10s, and tanks that were likely near the FLOT. Now they are targeting artillery/MLRS, tanks, as well as groups of infantry. 351/ ImageImageImage
With TB2 operating overhead, apparently without too much difficulty now that many of the front line AD systems are destroyed, reinforcements including tanks and armor will remain priority targets, possibly making it more difficult for Armenia to hold positions under attack. 352/
Armenian and Nagorno-Karabakh forces are continuing to claim that Turkish F-16 fighters are operating over Nagorno-Karabakh. 353/
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From the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman. 354/
Another video from September 28 near Qaraxanbəyli with Armenian/Nagorno-Karabakh soldiers under Azerbaijani artillery fire. 355/
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Full video of those Armenian/Nagorno-Karabakh reinforcements arriving at the front on September 28. You can see 9M111 Fagot ATGMs being launched against Azerbaijani targets and soldiers trying to shoot UAVs, likely loitering munitions. 356/
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BBC's Russian Service has a good live feed of developments going on in Nagorno-Karabakh. 357/
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The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan claimed that Armenian forces have destroyed an Azerbaijani TOS-1A thermobaric MLRS system. 358/
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The Armenian MoD published photos of the Su-25 aircraft they claim was downed by a Turkish F-16 fighter. 359/
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I'm not gonna post any of them but there are a number of videos published from the Armenian-side of the bodies of Azerbaijani soldiers, some stacked on top of each other in the back of a truck or in a field. These kind of videos are being released daily. 361/
Video of what appears to be another Azerbaijani loitering munition strike on Armenian reinforcements. I'm not sure what the full context is, as that site has often not worked during the fighting. The vid cuts off before detonation. 362/
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An example of the laziness of the IO from both sides. The Azerbaijani MoD claims this is an Armenian Tochka-U missile. The photos to the right are of Tochkas, which don't look anything like that. Instead, it look's like a Smerch MLRS rocket. 363/
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Video released by Armenia showing artillery strikes on Azerbaijani targets. Hard to make out exactly what was struck, but it appears a couple of vehicles were destroyed. 365/
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New Azerbaijani TB2 UCAV video. It shows a strike on a BM-21 Grad MLRS and other targets that were likely hit by another platform. They say they destroyed 1 Uragan and 3 BM-21 MLRS, 1 Osa AD system, 1 IFV, and 2 D-20 howitzers "over the past hours". 369/
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New video from Armenia showing artillery strikes on Azerbaijani troops and equipment, including a platoon-size formation of troops in the open running for cover. 371/
Video of an Azerbaijani tank or armored vehicle being destroyed. 372/
New video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing loitering munitions striking various Armenian targets. Note, all 4 of the T-72 tanks and the 2S3 Aktasiya was in a previous video. Additional, BM-21 Grad MLRS, Osa, and other systems were in the video. 373/
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Supposedly, these two are decoys of Osa or Strela air defense systems. The chassis certainly is different. 374/ ImageImage
9A33 Osa TELAR, BM-21 Grad MLRS, ammunition for a towed howitzer (interesting that they targeted the ammunition rather than the artillery piece), and Ural truck transporting an anti-aircraft or anti-tank gun (S-60?). 375/ ImageImageImageImage
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman claims that Turkey is running all offensive air operations for Azerbaijan from a Turkish E7-T AEW&C aircraft, and is operating a UAV C2 station (presumably for the Turkish-made TB2 UCAVs). 376/ Image
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The Azerbaijani MoD's claims about Armenian losses today up to 1730:
-2 Osa-AKM air defense systems (likely TELARs)
-1 Uragan MLRS
-4 BM-21 Grad MLRS
-4 D-20 152mm howitzers
-16 tanks
-1 IFV
-2 trucks with troops
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And here are Azerbaijan’s losses according to the Armenian MoD, both in total and today. They claim that Azerbaijani TOS-1A, Uragan, and Smerch MLRS were destroyed today. 381/
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New video from Azerbaijan showing TB2 UCAVs striking 5 Armenian BM-21 Grad MLRS. The Azerbaijani MoD said they destroyed 8 Grad MLRS systems this evening. 382/
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Azerbaijan continues to focus on Armenia's artillery and MLRS systems after destroying many of the Osa-AKM and Strela-10 air defense systems. At this point, it would be better to give these vehicles better concealment from the air than cover from arty or ground systems. 383/ ImageImageImageImage
It isn't clear how much maneuver occurred today and yesterday, but it seems Azerbaijani TB2 are operating without great resistance right now and will likely continue to knock out Armenian artillery, armor, and OPs unless something changes. 384/
Regardless of how effective Armenian soldiers are, they will struggle to hold onto their defensive positions if they continue to face an effective aerial threat operating with impunity. So the question is, what will Armenia do about it? 385/
Armenia could send its newest air defenses, like the Tor-M2KM and Buk-M1-2, into Nagorno-Karabakh, leaving Armenia proper less well covered. This might work if they received guarantees that Russia would help defend Armenian air space from Turkey or maybe Azerbaijan. 386/
They could ask or demand emergency deliveries of EW or AD systems from Russia to address the new UCAV threat. Or they could escalate, and attempt to destroy the TB2s on the ground or their C2 infrastructure, possibly with Su-30SM or Iskander-M/Tochka-U ballistic missiles. 387/
But the status quo isn't working for Armenia even if it isn't currently losing much terrain, and Azerbaijan and Turkey seem to be happy to continue with the conflict. So Armenia, and possibly Russia, is going to have to make a decision to change the trajectory of the fight. 388/
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman released this video that purports to show the flight pattern of Turkish E-7T AEW&C and F-16 aircraft. Not sure if that Su-25 is supposed to be the Armenian aircraft that was shot down or an Azerbaijani Su-25. 389/
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Azerbaijani MoD video showing TB2 UCAV strikes on an Armenian convoy. Hard to tell whether those are trucks or MLRS. 390/
Another TB2 video that appears to show strikes on 5 BM-21 Grad MLRS and one or maybe 2 Ural-4320 trucks. It appears the previous video shows a resupply for this BM-21 Grad battery. 391/
Screenshots of 4 BM-21 Grad MLRS targeted by TB2 UCAVs. As a reminder, MAM-C/L munitions have fairly small warheads and need to be direct hits, and it is often difficult to tell how damaged these vehicles are after some of these near misses. 392/ ImageImageImageImage
Screenshots of the 5th BM-21 Grad MLRS from that video, a Ural-4320 truck, and a 3rd target, which is likely another BM-21 or truck. You can see that resupply convoy in the 3rd and 4th screenshots. 393/ ImageImageImageImage
Screenshots of TB2 strikes on that resupply convoy. 394/ ImageImageImageImage
Video of damage reportedly caused by Azerbaijani air strikes (presumably, MLRS too) on Martakert. 395/
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Video of the air raid siren from tonight in Stepanakert. 396/
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Armenia's losses from Sep 27-30 as of 2130 according to the Azerbaijani MoD:
-up to 200 tanks and armored vehicles
-228 artillery, MLRS, mortar pieces
-30 air defense systems
-6 command posts/OPs
-5 ammo dumps
-More than 110 vehicles
-1 S-300 system.
397/
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Azerbaijan continued its MLRS fire on Armenian positions during the night. 398/
According to the Guardian, "At least three Syrian opposition fighters have been killed in skirmishes in the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh," including one who reportedly left for Azerbaijan on September 20. 399/
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Armenia posted photos of an Azerbaijani UAV that was reportedly shot down over night. Look's like an Israeli-made IAI Harop loitering munition. 400/
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New TB2 UCAV video from Azerbaijan with strikes on 4 D-30 122mm howitzers and a fifth target from long distance that is hard to ID. 401/
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Note, the Orbiter UAV that flies through the frame after one of the D-30 howitzers was struck. 402/ Image
The four D-30 122mm howitzers, presumably from a single battery. In the fourth screenshot, you can see damage from previous strikes. 403/ ImageImageImageImage
A look at the D-30 howitzer battery's position. These trench lines may need to be camouflaged better against aerial threats. 404/ ImageImageImage
Video from Azerbaijani reporters showing areas taken from Armenian forces. You can see a number of damaged or destroyed Ural-4320 trucks, GAZ-66, and other vehicles. They blur much of it but you can see a possibly damaged Azerbaijani BMP-3. 405/
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Screenshots of that Azerbaijani BMP-3. Can't tell if there is any damage but it is in a strange position if it is operational. Also possible that some of the damaged vehicles on the road belonged to Azerbaijan as well. 406/ ImageImageImageImage
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Screenshots of the damaged Ural-4320, GAZ-66, and other vehicles. Given that they blur out so much of the video, I wonder if that was to prevent people from ID'ing Azerbaijani positions or if some of the equipment was Azerbaijani and more identifiable. 408/ ImageImageImageImage
Armenia claims that Nagorno-Karabakh forces shot down an Azerbaijani helicopter, which crashed in Iran. 409/
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The Azerbaijani MoD claimed that Armenian forces from the Gorus region of Armenia fired rockets at the Jebrail-Fizuli area of Azerbaijan. 410/
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Armenian BM-21 Grad MLRS fire. 411/
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Here’s the unblurred version of that video from Azerbaijani media showing damaged Ural-4320, GAZ-66, BMP-3, and other vehicles. Not sure why they blurred so much of the other one. 412/
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As @COIN_TR1 pointed out, the above video might have been taken while passing through some of the destruction shown in this video posted earlier this week by Armenia showing Azerbaijani Ural-4320, IMR, and BMP-3. 413/ Image
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Another Smerch MLRS rocket that reportedly landed a 15 minute drive from Stepanakert. 416/
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Another video released by the Armenian MoD that shows trucks or buses on fire and a strike presumably on an Azerbaijani position. 417/
Armenian officials claimed that they have shot down 3 Azerbaijani aircraft, 2 helicopters, and 6 UAVs today. 418/
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From the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman. 419/ Image
Allegedly photos of the vehicle of two AFP journalists who were fired on in Nagorno-Karabakh. 420/
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Another video from Azerbaijani correspondents showing Armenian positions seized by Azerbaijani forces. The video shows at least one destroyed tank and Ural-4320 trucks. 421/
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Screenshots of the two tanks and destroyed Ural-4320 truck. It looks as though the destroyed tank was struck from above through its turret. 422/ ImageImageImageImage
The second half of that video showing Azerbaijani forces with captured Armenian trucks and equipment. 423/
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Video of what appears to be another Smerch MLRS rocket in Karabakh. 425/
Video of one of the aircraft shot down today, which looks like another An-2. 426/
Video of TB2 UCAVs striking two Armenian Osa air defense 9A33-series TELARs (both were hit yesterday or earlier) and a T-72 tank. 427/
Interestingly, the Clash Report Telegram Channel, which is clearly close to/run by the Turkish MoD, posted this footage first yesterday, which might be a sign that Turkey is controlling or coordinating the work of these TB2 UCAVs in Azerbaijan. 428/
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The Azerbaijani MoD’s response to the Armenian MoD’s claims about Azerbaijani aviation losses today. 429/
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Clash Report popped up in March during Turkey's UCAV offensive in Idlib and published most of the footage of those strikes, which were clearly provided by the Turkish MoD, and from Libya, too. Seems unlikely the Azerbaijani military would give them the footage first. 430/ ImageImageImage
Screenshots of those two Armenian Osa-AKM 9A33BM TELARs and the T-72 tank. Notably, now that Armenia's front-line air defense systems are significantly degraded, Azerbaijan could begin using its Mi-35M attack helicopters and Su-25 attack aircraft for CAS to support assaults. 431/ ImageImageImageImage
The Nagorno-Karabakh MoD claims that they shot down Su-25 attack aircraft and Mi-24 helicopters today. 432/
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Video reportedly of Armenian soldiers retaking an observation post. 433/
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The Armenian MoD posted a video showing an aircraft getting shot down (they said it was an Azerbaijani UAV). 434/
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Another video from the Armenian MoD showing Armenian indirect fire. 441/
Apparently, the video of the Azerbaijani loitering munition (likely a Harop) strike on that Armenian bus in Vardenis from September 29. 442/
The aftermath of that loitering munition strike from Tuesday. 443/ ImageImage
From the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman. 444/
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The Armenian MoD said that it’s S-300 air defense systems have shot aerial targets in the vicinity of Yerevan. This might be Armenia’s first use of the S-300 in combat. 445/
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Another video reportedly of Armenian S-300 air defenses shooting down UAVs over Abovyan tonight. 446/
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Another video of Armenian air defenses in action tonight. 447/
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Azerbaijan’s losses according to Nagorno-Karabakh officials as of 1800 today:
-1280 KIA 2700 WIA
-4 aircraft
-90 UAVs
-12 helicopters
-181 tanks and armored vehicles
-3 TOS-1A and 2 Smerch MLRS
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More photos of 300mm 9M55K rockets launched by Azerbaijani BM-30 Smerch MLRS. These photos are reportedly from Ivanyan. Presumably, the rocket that went through that roof didn't detonate. 452/
Photo: Асатур Есаянц
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Some of the Armenian weapons captured by Azerbaijani forces from an earlier video, including a Serbian Zastava M-93 sniper rifle, PKM, AK-103, and a Kord 6P50 12.7mm heavy machine gun. 454/
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More photos of captured Armenian weapons, including another Kord HMG, AK-103, Zastava M-93, SVD, Pulsar Apex thermal sight, and an RG-6 40mm grenade launcher. 455/
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Kornet ATGM and a damaged Ural-4320. 456/
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Photos of damaged vehicles from an Armenian convoy reportedly from September 27 (might be from the same video I posted yesterday). There were also photos of the bodies of several Armenian soldiers. 457/
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The Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Forces released a video showing the bodies of several Azerbaijani soldiers. The Военный Осведомитель Telegram Channel counted 32 bodies (I won’t post the video). It looks as though they were killed by small arms fire. 458/
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The Armenian MoD claims that they shot down another aircraft and UAV this morning and that fighting continues along the border in Nagorno-Karabakh. 459/ Image
The Armenian MoD posted a video reportedly of an Azerbaijani helicopter being shot down. There's no footage before the flames, so it is difficult to assess what was downed. 460/
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Nagorno-Karabakh announced that 157 of its soldiers have died so far in the fighting. 462/
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A new video from the Azerbaijani MoD of TB2 UCAV footage showing strikes on groups of soldiers, presumably from last night. It appears that TB2 are targeting troops now that much of Nagorno-Karabakh's air defense, artillery, and armor has been damaged.463/
The threat from TB2 is even greater at night as their thermal optics can pick up movement and vehicles quite easily. Soldiers also typically group together more at night time, particularly when they try to keep light discipline, leaving them very exposed to these attacks. 464/ ImageImageImageImage
Most of the strikes in that video appeared to give little warning to the soldiers, except for this one. It is possible that this strike didn't use a MAM TB2 munition but a loitering munition or artillery round instead. 465/
Another video of TB2 UCAV strikes on Armenian trucks and other positions. Pretty obvious that the TB2 are going through their target priority list after destroying many of the high-value air defense, artillery, and armor targets in Nagorno-Karabakh. 466/
Nagorno-Karabakh’s leader Arayik Harutyunyan visited the two French Le Monde journalists who were wounded yesterday. 467/
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The Azerbaijani MoD claims to have seized Madagiz and the high ground around it, and said they are having success in the direction of Jebrail-Fizuli. 469/
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Video from Russian journalists with Telekanal Dozhd who came under fire yesterday in the town of Martuni in Nagorno-Karabakh. That’s also where the two French journalists were wounded. 470/
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Armenia’s foreign ministry said on Friday it was ready to engage with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to re-establish a ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh. 471/
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This video published by Turkey's Haberturk was reportedly of an Armenian UAV being shot down by Azerbaijani air defenses. Instead, it is clearly an An-2 aircraft, presumably belonging to Azerbaijan. Was this an Azerbaijani friendly fire incident? 472/
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Another Russian news crew running for cover after coming under fire from Azerbaijani UAVs in Nagorno-Karabakh. No one was hurt. 473/
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Another video posted yesterday by a Turkish news crew reportedly showing Armenian loitering munitions getting shot down near an Azerbaijani mortar position. Based on Google Translate, I believe the article said 20 Armenian UAVs have been shot down. 474/
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Video showing shelling in Nagorno-Karabakh and a house in Hadrut that was reportedly struck by a Smerch MLRS rocket. 475/
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Another Azerbaijani MoD video showing TB2 UCAV strikes, presumably that occurred over night. It looks like 3 MT-LB with ZU-23-2 or other AD cannons, one T-72 tank, one truck, and one observation post were struck. 477/
Those 3 MT-LB with ZU-23-2 or other air defense cannons and one T-72 tank. 478/ ImageImageImageImage
Photos of an Azerbaijani T-90S tank that was apparently knocked out of action. 479/
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Strikes on Stepanakert. 480/
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Photo of another Azerbaijani T-90S tank that was apparently damaged in the fighting. 481/
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Warning graphic video. The Armenian MoD released a video showing Armenian artillery strikes on Azerbaijani positions and small arms fire on a group of Azerbaijani soldiers running from a destroyed tank. 482/
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First use of the Israeli-made LORA ballistic missile by Azerbaijan? 485/
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Not surprising they would choose to use the LORA for this target. It has a 10m CEP, unlike other long-range MLRS or Tochka-U, and it is large enough to take down a bridge, unlike a TB2 MAM munition. 486/
Here's a promotional video of the LORA during a test launch by IAI. 487/
Another TB2 UCAV video showing strikes on a Ural-4320 truck, soldiers in a trench line (possibly a mortar or artillery crew), and a vehicle on a road. 488/
Strikes on that Ural-4320 truck and soldiers in a trench line. MAM munitions are fairly small, and the strike against the soldiers appeared to hit the berm, so they likely all survived. 489/ ImageImageImageImage
Doesn't appear that Azerbaijan is looking to negotiate. 490/ Image
The Nagarno-Karabakh MoD released another video that started with recycled footage. The last part of the video shows what appears to be an MLRS salvo. 491/
Azerbaijan has claimed that Armenia fired ~10 Tochka-U missiles at the village of Sabirkend. 492/
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The Armenian MoD denies Azerbaijan's claims. 493/
Video of the damage from Azerbaijani strikes on Stepanakert. 494/
Another video of the aftermath of Azerbaijani strikes on Stepanakert. 495/
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Another TB2 UCAV Video released by the Azerbaijani MoD with strikes on a tent (possible command post) and three tanks. 497/
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TB2 UCAV strikes on Armenian soldiers and a BMP-1. 498/
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Video of Stepanakert being shelled tonight. 499/
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There’s another video posted by Armenian soldiers after they apparently seized (or took back) an observation post from Azerbaijani soldiers. There are approximately 10 bodies in the video. 501/
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Good ID by @EvstPalaiologos. The rifle does look like a JNG-90 sniper rifle. He’s also holding an optic, presumably a thermal or night vision scope, in his other hand. 502/ ImageImageImage
Armenian soldiers also came across an apparently damaged and abandoned Azerbaijani BTR-82A. It appears this was from the same location where one of the knocked out T-90S tanks was photographed as well. 503/
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One of the many disturbing things about the fighting this week in Nagorno-Karabakh is that videos and photos have been published almost daily of dozens of bodies of soldiers from both sides, but I haven't seen any videos or photos of prisoners. 504/
Armenia's losses according to the Azerbaijani MoD. 505/
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Lost Armor combined the Azerbajani TB2 strikes into a single 6 minute video they released earlier today (so it is missing a few). It started with recorded strikes on air defense systems (Osa-AKM and Strela-10). 506/
The compilation of TB2 strikes on Armenian tanks and artillery pieces. Pretty sure they missed some. 507/
Compilation of TB2 strikes on Armenian MLRS. 508/
Warning graphic video. Compilation of TB2 strikes on troop formations and MT-LB. 509/
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Video from the Azerbaijani MoD that appears to show TB2 strikes on 4 T-72 tanks, 2 BM-21 Grad MLRS, a group of troops in a defensive position, and an MT-LB from last night. 511/
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More strikes on Stepanakert. 513/
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Photo of a damaged building in Stepanakert, reportedly caused by Smerch MLRS. 514/
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Video from a Russian correspondent running for cover in Stepanakert after four explosions. 515/
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More photos of a damaged building in Stepanakert reportedly after a Smerch MLRS rocket strike. 516/
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Another video from Azerbaijan. Look's like TB2 strikes on 2 BMP-1 and one MT-LB. The explosion at the end is too big to be a TB2 munition, possibly an aerial bomb. 517/
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Photos reportedly of Armenian soldiers being taken prisoner by Azerbaijan. If this is true, I suspect they will publish the identities of these soldiers. 519/
Video of damage after shelling in Stepanakert. 520/
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Video of Armenian artillery and mortar strikes on Azerbaijani positions. 521/
The Azerbaijani MoD posted a video of musicians singing for soldiers, presumably near the front. They also gave the soldiers pamphlets with the obviously inflated figures for Armenian losses they have been publishing daily. 522/
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Nagorno-Karabakh officials published a video showing what appear to be Azerbaijani positions and vehicles on fire, including two tanks one of which was struck by an ATGM. 524/
Video of an Armenian ATGM strike on an Azerbaijani tank. 525/
Appears that video of Syrian fighters was in Azerbaijan. 526/
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Higher quality video of that Armenian ATGM strike on that Azerbaijani tank and a large explosion. 528/
Metin Gurcan reports that Azerbaijan is employing Turkish-made Kargu-2 loitering munitions in addition to TB2 UCAVs. 529/
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New video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing TB2 strikes on 5 Armenian T-72 tanks. 530/
Nagorno-Karabakh released the names of another 51 soldiers who were killed, bringing the death total to 202. A number of the soldiers were born in 2001 or 2002.
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Novaya Gazeta's sources also say that Syrians have gone to Azerbaijan. They report that between 700-1,000 Syrians have gone to Azerbaijan, primarily to guard pipelines. They reportedly fly from Gaziantep to Baku, flying through Georgian air space. 532/
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Novaya Gazeta's source says that Syrian fighters receive $1,800 a month, guaranteed Turkish citizenship (including for there families), and a $30k payment if they are killed. They also report that ethnic Armenians in Syria may be traveling to fight in Nagorno-Karabakh. 533/ Image
More graphic photos posted from the Armenian-side showing ~10 bodies of Azerbaijani soldiers. 534/
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The Nagorno-Karabakh Defense Army posted a video earlier today showing soldiers near the front line, many of whom appear to be older reservists. The video was taken in the same location as the video from yesterday showing 32 Azerbaijani bodies. 535/
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The Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hovhannisyan accused Azerbaijan of using LAR-160 MLRS cluster munitions. 536/
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Video from Alexander Kots of damage to buildings in Stepanakert from Azerbaijani shelling. 537/
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The Armenian MoD has claimed that Azerbaijan conducted a "large-scale attack" today. 538/ Image
The Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hovhannisyan released this list of 243 Azerbaijani soldiers who have been killed in combat that they could confirm. He says the real figure is over 2,000, including mercenaries. 539/ Image
Semyon Pegov claims that a Nagorno-Karabakh sabotage group infiltrated behind Azerbaijani lines and destroyed a missile system that struck Stepanakert. He said it was an Israeli-made LORA. 540/
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I think that one of the take aways from this conflict is that Armenia's decision to procure Su-30SM fighters, which have played no role thus far, was a huge mistake. They could have procured Buk-M2, Pantsir-S1, or Tor-M2 batteries instead that could have countered the TB2. 544/
Ultimately, the Su-30SM fighters were a prestige procurement decision for these kind of videos. Nagorno-Karabakh's Osa-AKM and Strela-10 weren't able to stop the TB2, and Armenia has to keep its limited #'s of Buk-M1-2 and Tor-M2KM away from the FLOT. 545/
For those making fun of the Pantsir, the Pantsir-S1 that were destroyed in Libya and Syria had the older radars, and they still managed to shoot down plenty of TB2, enough to change Baku's calculus about how many they are willing to lose (they likely don't have many). 546/
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The Azerbaijani MoD posted a video of an Armenian position they seized. You can see two tanks and a destroyed truck. Notably, the positions aren't particularly well designed or fortified. 553/
Look's like two T-72A tanks and a burnt out Ural-4320. 554/ ImageImageImageImage
Surprising that Nagorno-Karabakh forces didn't reinforce these positions better over the years. 555/ ImageImageImage
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Here's the video of that strike (posted on September 30). Looks as though it may have only been a mobility kill. Something to keep in mind with these TB2 videos is that the MAM-L is a relatively small munition and requires a direct hit for a K-kill. 557/
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A response from Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. 559/ Image
Another video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing territory they seized, in this case near Talish where an Azerbaijani convoy was destroyed on September 28. 560/
This video was published by the Armenian MoD on September 27 showing Azerbaijani BMP-3 and an IMR-3 that was on fire in addition to the trucks. It appears both videos were shot from the same location of the same destroyed convoy. 561/
Armenian artillerymen firing an M-30 122mm howitzer at Azerbaijani positions. 562/
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Video of Armenian D-30 122mm howitzer crews. 564/
Video of Armenian soldiers coming under fire. 565/
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Another video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing a TB2 strike on a BM-21 Grad MLRS and what appears to be MLRS fire on Armenian positions at the end. 567/
Two videos of the two Azerbaijani T-90S tanks and BTR-82 that were knocked out together earlier this week. 568/
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Second part of that video showing the other T-90S and BTR-82A. 569/
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Video of Stepanakert under fire today. 572/
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Video of a fire caused by Azerbaijani shelling on Stepanakert. 576/
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New video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing loitering munitions, presumably Israeli-made Harop, striking 2 2S3 Akatsiya 152mm howitzers, 2 T-72 tanks, a BM-21 Grad MLRS, an armory/depot, and a KAMAZ truck. 577/
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Another video of the aftermath of shelling on Stepanakert. Appears that cluster munitions were used. 579/
Screenshots of the munitions used in the strike. 580/
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The Armenian MoD's Artsrun Hobhannisyan claimed that Azerbaijan was firing both Smerch and Polonez MLRS systems on Stepanakert. Ominously, he said "I call on the people of Azerbaijan to leave cities near military sites as soon as possible to avoid possible losses." 581/ Image
Video of Armenian strikes on the Azerbaijani city of Ganja. 582/
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More evidence of cluster munitions being employed against Stepanakert. 583/
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Another video that shows several bodies of Azerbaijani soldiers. It appears it is somewhere in the mountains. 585/
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Another video of intense shelling on Stepanakert. 586/
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That is a fairly large crater, larger than what a normal MLRS rocket explosion looks like. 587/ ImageImageImageImage
Photo of another Smerch MLRS rocket in Stepanakert. 588/
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Another video of the aftermath of shelling on Stepanakert. 589/
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Looks like an Israeli-made Orbiter-1K or Orbiter-2 UAV crashed in Nagorno-Karabakh. 590/
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Video of the aftermath of shelling on the Azerbaijani city of Ganja. 591/
Graphic video of the bodies of several Armenian soldiers. 592/
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The moment an Azerbaijani MLRS rocket lands in Stepanakert. 594/
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Doesn’t appear this rocket detonated. 595/ ImageImage
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Video from the Armenian MoD showing artillery strikes on Azerbaijani targets and a damaged or destroyed tank. 598/
Possibly an RPG strike on that Azerbaijani tank. 599/
Warning graphic. Video from the Armenian MoD showing an offensive by Azerbaijani forces in the Mataghis gorge showing artillery strikes and 3 ATGM on a platoon (+) force without sufficient dispersion. 600/
You can see why the front line hasn't moved much for years. This terrain is difficult for an attacking force as vehicles have to stay on the roads, the defender has good observation, and the defender can register the gorge for mortar and artillery fire. 601/ ImageImageImageImage
ATGM fire on a vehicle and groups of troops. Because of the canalizing terrain, once you destroy the lead vehicle on those roads, it is difficult for them to keep advancing. 602/ ImageImageImage
The Azerbaijani platoon-sized force was also moving in a tight file formation, instead of by squad or fire team with greater dispersion. That put them at greater risk of detection and more vulnerable to indirect fire. This unit may have sustained 20 + casualties. 603/ ImageImageImageImage
Video released by Nagorno-Karabakh defense forces that shows parts of the videos previously released by the Armenian MoD. You can see strikes on vehicles in that same gorge before the infantry force in the earlier video from the Armenian MoD. 604/
The Azerbaijani MoD released a video of a position they say they seized. 605/
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Azerbaijan also posted a video of Armenian mortars and Ural and KAMAZ trucks that they captured in the Jabrayil direction. 606/
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Video of damaged and destroyed buildings in Stepanakert after Azerbaijani shelling. 607/
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Nagorno-Karabakh D-20 howitzers. 608/
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Azerbaijani forces captured three Armenian tanks (2 T-72A and 1 T-72B). 609/
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Armenia fired Smerch MLRS rockets at the Azerbaijani city of Ganja today. 610/
Photos: Михаил Воскресенский
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From Armenian officials. 611/
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Photos of Stepanakert. The big take aways from today is that this conflict isn’t showing any signs of slowing down and both sides are launching MLRS strikes on populated areas. It will likely get worse. 612/
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Azerbaijani officials claim that Armenia launched Tochka ballistic missiles at Mingachevir. 167/ Image
These are Smerch rockets not Tochkas though (maybe both were launched). 168/
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Another video reportedly from the Mataghis gorge. Pretty clear that these Azerbaijani forces didn't expect to run into opposition here since they led with unarmored jeeps and Ural-4320 trucks. Instead they ran into Armenian ATGM crews. 170/
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The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman denied Azerbaijan's claim that Armenia targeted Khizi and Absheron. (Correcting the numbering on my tweets) 622/ Image
According to the Armenian MoD’s Artsrun Hovhannisyan, Azerbaijan sustained 400 KIA and 700 WIA today, which as usual seems inflated. 623/
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According to the Armenian MoD, these are Azerbaijan's losses as of 9:00 p.m. 624/ Image
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Armenian D-20 152mm howitzer crews in action. 626/
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Video of Azerbaijani indirect fire on Stepanakert. 629/
Azerbaijan released a video it claims shows Armenian forces launching rockets from within Armenian proper against Azerbaijan. 630/
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Another two rockets from a Smerch MLRS system in Stepanakert. 631/
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RIA Novosti reports that there were 322 Syrian mercenaries in Nagorno-Karabakh on October 1 with another 430 arriving over the weekend. They report that 93 Syrian mercenaries have been killed so far, and that 53 bodies have been returned to Syria. 632/
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Nagorno-Karabakh officials announced that another 21 soldiers have died. 635/
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The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman announced that a soldier shot down two Azerbaijani Su-25 aircraft with Igla MANPADS on October 1st. 636/
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Photos of a Smerch MLRS rocket from Artsrun Hovhannisyan. 637/
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The Azerbaijani MoD published a video after retaking the village of Talish. 638/
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The Russian PMC-linked RSOTM account strongly hinting that Russian private military contractors are on their way to fight in Nagorno-Karabakh. (h/t @Archer83Able) 640/
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If this is true, presumably we will see some evidence. 641/ Image
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Notably, Artsrun Hovhannisyan acknowledged that Azerbaijan has had some battlefield successes. 648/
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Video of the fighting yesterday between Armenia and Azerbaijan from across the border in Aslan Duz, Iran. 650/
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Additional photos of the Smerch MLRS rocket in Mingachevir. 651/
Photos: Михаил Воскресенский
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Video of an ATGM strike on an Azerbaijani tank. 652/
Azerbaijan displayed some of the captured Armenian equipment, including 9M111 Fagot ATGMs, D-30 122m howitzers, OG-7V rounds, and T-72 tanks. 653/
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Photos of the three captured tanks, 2 T-72B and 1 T-72AV. 654/
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Interestingly, Azerbaijan hasn't published any videos of Spike ATGMs being used during the recent fighting. 655/
First good news since the fighting began. 656/
The Azerbaijani MoD published a video of territory they say they have seized. 657/
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Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was in Nagorno-Karabakh today meeting with military leaders and NK President Arayik Harutyunyan. 659/
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Video of an Azerbaijani strike on Stepanakert. 660/
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NKR defense forces added another 21 names of soldiers killed during fighting with Azerbaijan. 661/
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Video from Azerbaijan of captured Armenian equipment (some of it was photographed and released yesterday), including a D-30 122mm battery without cover, Ural and KAMAZ trucks, a destroyed BMP-1, and UAZ-31514. 662/
Azerbaijan’s losses according to Armenia (yes, I know they’re inflated). 663/
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Sergey Naryshkin, the Director of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, said that hundreds or thousands of mercenaries from the Middle East, including from Jabhat al-Nusra, Firqat al-Hamza, and Sultan Murad, are fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh. 664/
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From the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman:
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Video of damage caused by Azerbaijani shelling in the town of Hadrut. 666/
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667/
Artillery and MLRS fire is still occurring and each side says that fighting continues along the front, but, interestingly, over the past two days Azerbaijan hasn't released any TB2 videos and Armenia only released one video of fighting yesterday (likely from earlier). 668/
Not sure why both sides have largely stopped publishing combat footage over the past two days, especially since both sides say that plenty of fighting is continuing. Maybe it doesn't mean anything, but it is interesting to note. 669/
A number of people have noted that the poor weather today and yesterday could be a contributing factor. That would affect TB2 but the Armenian videos have been taken from the ground. Either way, Armenia would be smart to move in reinforcements while the weather is poor. 670/
Video reportedly of an Armenian strike on the Azerbaijani city of Ganja from yesterday. 671/
t.me/babahkarabah/9…
Another video allegedly of an Armenian strike on the Azerbaijani city of Ganja yesterday. 672/
t.me/babahkarabah/9…
673/
674/
New video from the Azerbaijani MoD showing an Armenian position and equipment they captured, including mortars, ATGMs, and Ural and KAMAZ trucks. 675/
mod.gov.az/en/news/video-…
I've seen a few of these machine guns or other systems captured from Armenia designed to be operated from cover in a trench. Some World War I vibes. 676/ ImageImageImage
Some fairly old mortars at that position. 677/ ImageImageImage
678/
Hopefully someone can geolocate where this was launched. 679/
The NKR defense forces posted another video of bodies of Azerbaijani soldiers and an Azerbaijani flag on fire. The location looks similar to a previous video they posted. 680/
681/
682/
Video of Stepanakert being shelled by Azerbaijan. 683/
t.me/sashakots/17198
Statement from the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman in response to claims from Azerbaijani officials that Armenia targeted the BTC pipeline. 684/ Image
685/
It seems awfully suspicious that all of those cluster munitions would land so close together, and who would pick up live UXO to put them together for a photo if they landed farther apart? 686/ ImageImage
687/
From the Armenian MoD's spokeswoman. 688/
facebook.com/shushanstepany… Image
Footage of Armenian strikes (presumably from MLRS) on the Azerbaijani city of Ganja from Monday. 689/
t.me/babahkarabah/9…
690/
The Azerbaijani MoD posted a video of Azerbaijani troops capturing the village of Shukurbayli in the Jabrayil region. 691/
The Armenian MoD posted this video they said is of Azerbajani forces in Jabrayil who were turned back by Armenian resistance. There is footage of something on fire, but it doesn't show the convoy under fire. 692/
But the footage once again indicates that Azerbaijani forces often aren't operating as though they are in a combat environment facing an indirect fire threat. Especially with so many unarmored trucks and vehicles near Armenian positions. 693/ ImageImageImageImage
The Armenian MoD's spokeswoman Shushan Stepanyan posted these photos that appear to show Armenian indirect fire on the Azerbaijani convoy. Clearly, Armenian forward observers had good observation of the route. 694/
facebook.com/shushanstepany… ImageImageImageImage
This footage is allegedly of an Armenian strike on an Azerbaijani petroleum, oil, and lubricant (POL) depot. 695/
t.me/military_arm/1…
Sounds like an Israeli-made Harop loitering munition overhead in Stepanakert. 696/
t.me/sashakots/17206
The Armenian MoD posted a video they claim is of an Azerbaijani UAV that was shot down. 697/
Looks like a large UAV, maybe a Hermes 450? 698/ ImageImageImageImage
The Azerbaijani MoD released a video of loitering munitions striking two Armenian T-72 tanks. 699/
Screenshots of the two Armenian T-72 tanks targeted by Azerbaijani loitering munitions, possibly Harops. 700/ ImageImage
701/
Video from Semyon Pegov with the sound of Azerbaijani loitering munitions overhead. 702/
t.me/wargonzo/3651
Armenian losses according to the Azerbaijani MoD as of this morning:
-up to 250 tanks and armored vehicles
-up to 270 MLRS, artillery, and mortars
-up to 60 air defense systems
-11 CP/OPs
-8 ammo depots
-up to 150 vehicles
-1 S-300 air defense system
703/
 mod.gov.az/en/news/list-o… Image
The total Azerbaijani losses according to Armenia:
-127 UAVs
-16 helicopters
-17 aircraft
-416 tanks and armored vehicles
-4 MLRS
-3754 casualties (maybe KIA?)
704/
 t.me/artsrun_offici… Image
The Armenian MoD said they destroyed another Azerbaijani storage facility. 705/
706/
The Nagorno-Karabakh defense forces announced the names of another 40 soldiers who were killed in fighting with Azerbaijan. 707/
facebook.com/ArmenianUnifie… ImageImage
708/
709/
710/
Another video with Azerbaijani loitering munitions overhead. They seek to be out in force today over Stepanakert. 711/
t.me/sashakots/17207
712/
Azerbaijan released a video of Azerbaijani forces in the village of Shaybey in the Jabrayil region that they captured. 713/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-sh…
Putin's comments when asked about the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh. 714/
en.kremlin.ru/events/preside… Image
Photo of a woman outside her home in Stepanakert. 715/
bbc.com/news/world-eur… Image
Video allegedly of two Azerbaijani T-72 tanks captured by Armenian forces (there are three tanks in the video though). 716/
t.me/infoteka24/8219
As a few of you pointed out, these look like Armenian tanks. 717/
The death total for Nagorno-Karabakh’s defense forces has reached 280 since the beginning of the conflict. 718/
t.me/reartsakh/4459 Image
719/
The additional 40 names announced today brings the death total for Armenian soldiers to 320 since fighting began last week. 720/
t.me/SputnikArmenia… Image
Video of loitering munitions targeting an Armenian 2S3 howitzer and a tank. Interestingly, the Azerbaijani MoD didn't publish this video itself but instead gave it to a Turkish account. 721/
Video published by the NKR showing artillery and mortar strikes on Azerbaijani soldiers, as well as some footage, previously published, of strikes on a storage depot. 722/
Longer video of those Azerbaijani loitering munition strikes on an Armenian 2S3 howitzer and a tank. 723/
724/
Armenia released its third list of the 415 Azerbaijani soldiers who they say have been killed in the fighting and identified. They say the actual death total is 3454 including mercenaries. 725/
t.me/KarabakhRecord… Image
New video from the Armenian MoD that appear to show artillery strikes on Azerbaijani targets, including a towed howitzer or anti-tank gun. 726/
Some photos were published a few days ago that purportedly showed captured Armenian soldiers, but Azerbaijan never gave us their identities, which was suspicious. Now it appears they were fake. 727/
That was an Azerbaijani MT-12 Rapira 100mm anti-tank gun in that video posted by the Armenian MoD. 728/ ImageImageImage
729/
Video allegedly of a retreating Armenian convoy that was captured by Azerbaijani forces. 730/
Another video of loitering munitions flying over Nagorno-Karabakh. 731/
t.me/anna_news/8457
Azerbaijan posted another video of UAZ jeeps and trucks they claim were captured from Armenia. 732/
733/
734/

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More from @RALee85

Rob Lee Profile picture
May 3
When we evaluate how weapons perform, it is important to note the conditions in which they operate. Abrams were committed into the fight this winter at a time when Ukraine had a lack of infantry as well as mines, ATGMs, air defense, and artillery ammunition. This may seem bizarre from the outside, but Ukraine often employs tanks in a manner to compensate for a lack of infantry or ammunition for other systems because those are the conditions they face.
If you don't have enough artillery or ATGM ammunition, you may bring up a tank or Bradley to engage Russian armor or infantry instead. This could involve placing an Abrams or Bradley at greater risk than you would like, but these are the organic assets that the 47th Mechanized Brigade had, and they come with a different supply of ammunition.
All weapons have vulnerabilities, and you mitigate those vulnerabilities through combined arms. When several of those arms are weaker (e.g. infantry, artillery, air defense), because of attrition or a lack of ammunition, others will be more vulnerable as well.
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Apr 26
Some thoughts about the supplemental bill. This is good news, but it will primarily help Ukraine defend in 2024 and into 2025. Russia will still likely make further gains this year, and it doesn't fix all of Ukraine's issues. It should be seen as one part of a long-term strategy.
Ukraine has had three main problems since Russia seized the initiative in October: ammunition, manpower, and fortifications. Ukraine is making progress building fortifications and multiple defensive lines, but defenses on many of the key parts of the front are still underdeveloped, contributing to Russian advances. 2/
The bill and first PDA aid package announced this week will provide a quick boost to Ukraine's defenses. But it is important to keep in mind that the limitations aren't just appropriated funds but also production capacity and size of stockpiles. Greater artillery ammunition deliveries will help reduce Russia's 5-6:1 artillery advantage, but it will not give Ukraine parity. 3/
Read 25 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Apr 21
Russian sources are saying that Ukraine is dropping caltrops on roads to damage their vehicles' wheels. When the vehicles stop, they are then targeted by artillery or FPVs.
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…

Image
Image
Video from Madyar showing them being dropped from UAVs. 2/
t.me/robert_magyar/…
From the beginning of the full-scale invasion. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Apr 18
Video of Russian Su-25 attack aircraft operating close to Chasiv Yar. A clear sign of a lack of Ukrainian air defense ammunition.

t.me/milinfolive/12…
t.me/RVvoenkor/66374
Videos posted over the past ten days by a Russian Telegram channel associated with the VDV’s 106th Airborne Division of Russian Su-25 attack aircraft operating in the Bakhmut - Chasiv Yar area. 2/



t.me/vdd98/3092
t.me/vdd98/3165
t.me/vdd98/3131
t.me/vdd98/3103
Videos from the past two weeks showing reported Russian FAB-250 and FAB-1500 UMPK, UK RBP Grom, and artillery or S-8 strikes in the Chasiv Yar area. 3/





t.me/vdd98/3089
t.me/vdd98/3170
t.me/vdd98/3006
t.me/vdd98/3075
t.me/vdd98/3062
t.me/vdd98/3053
Read 4 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Mar 30
Both Russian UGVs were struck by FPVs from Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade.
t.me/brygada47/613

2/
3/
Read 5 tweets
Rob Lee Profile picture
Mar 18
This was an interesting article about how Ukraine reopened grain exports by putting Russian ports at risk, particularly given Ukraine's current campaign targeting Russian oil refineries.
2/
3/
Read 4 tweets

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