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Dmitry Stefanovich Profile picture
@KomissarWhipla
Jul 13, 2020 • 3 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Said a few words to @Vedomosti about #NewSTART future after Lavrov said that there seems to be no such future. (@sandrermakoff weighed in as well).
vedomosti.ru/newspaper/arti…
My point is that both Trump admin still can extend it, and if Biden wins, there's a chance that they will not extend. And China does not need extra obligations at the moment, but they are quite active in P5, discussing nuclear risk reduction, etc.
People at @tass_agency press review helpfully provided a brief translation of comments by me and @sandrermakoff for @Vedomosti on #NewSTART extension: tass.com/pressreview/11… ImageImage

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More from @KomissarWhipla

Dmitry Stefanovich Profile picture
May 16, 2023
On Kinzhals, Patriots, etc.

What can be intercepted with which means depends on quite a number of factors and their mutual effects: where the incoming missile is launched from, where its target is, where the "anti-missile" launcher is...

1/
...and, perhaps most importantly, where the defending side's radars are (detecting, targeting, etc.).

How coordinated the "incoming" and "outgoing" salvos are also very important.

2/
On Kinzhal as a "real hypersonic weapon" I hoped everything was decided back in 2018: speed above 5 Mach, maneuvering inside the atmosphere, a significant "non-ballistic" part of the trajectory - bingo, this is it. That said...

3/
Read 11 tweets
Dmitry Stefanovich Profile picture
Nov 24, 2022
Rather long interview with Vladimir Degtyar, head of Makeyev design bureau and basically liquid-fuel missiles tzar: rg.ru/2022/11/23/sil…

Sarmat in serial production (probably he means parts of it)

1/
Sarmat warheads have are GLONASS-assisted and covered in some sort of stealth coating that complicates their detection and trajectory calculation both in the atmosphere and in outer space

2/
Cooperation with VNIITF on payloads included "combining izdeliye bodies (aeroshells? warheads?), expanding the range of standard sizes, solving the problems of hypersonic flight"

3/
Read 8 tweets
Dmitry Stefanovich Profile picture
Nov 17, 2022
Rather big and detailed interview with Yuri Borisov, current had of Roscosmos, about challenges and plans: tass.ru/interviews/163…

[In Russian, but will make a thread later]
Industrial approach to satellite-building planned to switch from current ~15 satellites per year to a satellite per day. Existing approach might give 40 per year though, but a change is needed to achieve modern mega-constellation capability. Expected around 2026...
Sphera project will be a major instrument: five orbital communication constellations and five new Earth remote sensing constellations based on smallsats. First stage with 127 spacecraft by 2026.
Read 5 tweets
Dmitry Stefanovich Profile picture
Aug 6, 2022
The more I see footage of Chinese TELs, the more I think their operational mode is very different from what we are used to in the Russian SRF.

1/
Russian best practices: off-road chassis, patrols deep in the woods, launch from unprepared positions, long caravans of guard, command and support vehicles. And Krona light shelters.

2/
Looks like PLARF focus is on motorways and probably the idea is to leave hardened shelters, tunnels, etc., launch, roll back (reload?..). Given their military and civilian construction and automobile production capabilities, there might be A LOT of decoy shelters and TELs.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Dmitry Stefanovich Profile picture
Aug 4, 2022
Nice #hyperhype X lethal autonomy from Sandia circa 2019.

I've been arguing publicly that autonomy has some role for hypersonic weapons since around early 2019 as well:)

(Source: osti.gov/biblio/1631217)
More on Sandia Autonomy for Hupersonics program.
autonomy.sandia.gov/missioncampaig…

osti.gov/biblio/1572138
Here are some great slides (with awful design decisions): osti.gov/biblio/1813715
Read 5 tweets
Dmitry Stefanovich Profile picture
Jul 14, 2022
#hyperhype
A thread on Zmeyevik, new RU hypersonic weapon reported by TASS earlier this week ().
Looks like it was under development for a while, although there were no tests mentioned or observed, which, does not mean that there were no tests at all.
1/
Making fast AShM is quite traditional for SU and RU school, and the ballistic missile is a good option (also, R-27K SLASBM). Still, given its range and speed one needs a serious ISR and targeting capabilities, and also terminal guidance.

2/
Maneuverable reentry vehicles (MaRV) and hypersonic glide vehicles (HGV) as a subtype of those make sense to be a primary payload type in this case, however there are obvious gaps in Russian ISR capabilities anyway.

3/
Read 7 tweets

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