Gerasimov delivered a briefing for military attaches today.

Lots of traditional points, some plain mistakes (e.g. "Dark Typhon"), but also some important points. Some quotes below.

1/ "The issue of arms control is a thing of the past, as a return to a minimum level of trust is now impossible due to the double standards of Western countries.

And without trust, it is impossible to create an effective mechanism of mutual control."

2/

No one expected the Third Stage of the NSNW exercise.
Southern and Central MD Iskanders practice receiving nuclear munitions and electronic launches. Air-Space Forces also practice receiving nukes and carry out patrol flights.
12 Main Directorate convoy shown a lot in the video. Strange pointy thing under canvas on a small cart looks funny.

The most-awesome missiles of 2023
(THREAD)

The most insecure one: LRHW Dark Eagle, which still do not dare to do a test launch. The most complicated one - TAURUS KEPD 350, which is COMPLICATED to be sent to Ukraine.

On Kinzhals, Patriots, etc.

What can be intercepted with which means depends on quite a number of factors and their mutual effects: where the incoming missile is launched from, where its target is, where the "anti-missile" launcher is...

1/ ...and, perhaps most importantly, where the defending side's radars are (detecting, targeting, etc.).

How coordinated the "incoming" and "outgoing" salvos are also very important.

2/

Rather long interview with Vladimir Degtyar, head of Makeyev design bureau and basically liquid-fuel missiles tzar: rg.ru/2022/11/23/sil…

Sarmat in serial production (probably he means parts of it)

1/ Sarmat warheads have are GLONASS-assisted and covered in some sort of stealth coating that complicates their detection and trajectory calculation both in the atmosphere and in outer space

2/

Rather big and detailed interview with Yuri Borisov, current had of Roscosmos, about challenges and plans: tass.ru/interviews/163…

[In Russian, but will make a thread later] Industrial approach to satellite-building planned to switch from current ~15 satellites per year to a satellite per day. Existing approach might give 40 per year though, but a change is needed to achieve modern mega-constellation capability. Expected around 2026...

The more I see footage of Chinese TELs, the more I think their operational mode is very different from what we are used to in the Russian SRF.

1/

https://twitter.com/HaoGao12/status/1555757923438981122

Russian best practices: off-road chassis, patrols deep in the woods, launch from unprepared positions, long caravans of guard, command and support vehicles. And Krona light shelters.

2/

Nice #hyperhype X lethal autonomy from Sandia circa 2019.

I've been arguing publicly that autonomy has some role for hypersonic weapons since around early 2019 as well:)

(Source: osti.gov/biblio/1631217) More on Sandia Autonomy for Hupersonics program.
autonomy.sandia.gov/missioncampaig…

osti.gov/biblio/1572138

#hyperhype
A thread on Zmeyevik, new RU hypersonic weapon reported by TASS earlier this week (

https://twitter.com/KomissarWhipla/status/1546749741840703488?t=mBkD4imkR8rmL0e2K0Jb8w&s=19

).
Looks like it was under development for a while, although there were no tests mentioned or observed, which, does not mean that there were no tests at all.
1/ Making fast AShM is quite traditional for SU and RU school, and the ballistic missile is a good option (also, R-27K SLASBM). Still, given its range and speed one needs a serious ISR and targeting capabilities, and also terminal guidance.

2/

New name for the Russian hypersonic weapons geeks: Zmeyevik. According to TASS sources, an anti-ship ballistic missile with HGV payload for the Navy coastal missile units, to strike large surface targets, somewhat like DF-21D or DF-26.

tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/1…

#hyperhype Sources claim that the project has been under development for a while already.

"Zmeyevik" is a kind of serpentinite rock, as usual. But also this thing often found in bathrooms. And in moonshine makers:)

NASAMS air defense system might arrive in Ukraine. I've made a short comment to Vedomosti earlier this week (vedomosti.ru/politics/artic…), so in case someone might be interested, here are my thoughts:
A pretty serious weapon, bu better wait for information about the specific type.
1/ There were several generations, and, given other supplies for Ukraine from the West, it is eqully possible that the delivered one would be something mothballed from storage or, on the contrary, a sparkling latest modification fresh from the assembly line.

2/

Lukashenko [wrongly] accuses NATO of flying aircraft with nukes near BY borders and asks for mirror actions.
Putin politely declines, mentions 200 tactical nukes with 257 certified aircraft in six NATO countries, promises deliveries of Iskander-M "in the nearest months". It's getting curiosier and curiosier.

Putin mentions that Iskander-M is dual-capable and can launch both cruise and ballistic missiles...but also that BY Su-25s (!) can be "retrofitted accordingly" and their pilots can trained in RU.

t.me/dimsmirnov175/…

Strategic deterrence forces exercis (Grom-2022?) tomorrow. Ballistic and cruise missile launches announced. Supreme commander-in-chief at the helm. MoD release via TASS: tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/1…

Air-Space Forces, Southern MD, Strategic Rocket Forces, Northern Fleet, Black Sea Fleet.

Provocative thought: simultaneous deployment of assorted and numerous units to the Western borders of Russia, and their movement back to bases afterwards has a value in itself. Training of full-spectrum support, identifying choke points and weak links, C3 on such scale.

1/ I presume that this value is much greater than that of "army games", and even exceeds what can be achieved during strategic exercises.

Moreover, it might be the first exercise of such scale managed from single center (incl. aerial command posts) employing modern equipment...

2/

Backfire and Kinzhal to Syria.

Again.

Also new normal?

#hyperhype

https://twitter.com/mod_russia/status/1493592894942416900

Kinzhal ground operations.

Putin meeting w/ Lavrov and Shoigu today. I expect smth like the one when Washington announced withdrawal from the INF Treaty. Should be interesting. There will be two separate meetings. With videos and readouts, per Peskov.

RVSN day is on. As usual, main course is Krasnaya Zvezda interview with Commander Karakayev, and this time there are A LOT of details: redstar.ru/besspornyj-arg…

THREAD

1/ Over the next several years Sarmat and Yars "with enhanced battle capabilities" (UTTKh?) will enter service, and a development of new (!) road-mobile ICBM is in progress.

2/

Somehow people seem to be very much interested in what I have to say about "Russian buildup on Ukrainian border", and future of the Ukrainian crisis.

I am not a real expert, and not an impartial observer, but anyway, a short thread might be useful.

1/ It is a hedging and a message to Kiev and its sponsors that they need to stay calm and behave. There are basically two alternatives:
1) Minsk-II, and people in Moscow seem to be ready to wait for its implementation (even w/ 'addendums' a-la Steinmeier Formula) indefinitely.

2/

We have a new 3-day series of defense-focused meetings held by Putin in Sochi. Today the focus is long-term development, and we learned that:
- Nuclear triad capabilities have been enhanced
- S-500 tests nearing completion
- armed forces carried out everything planned for 2020 We have a readout: kremlin.ru/events/preside…

- Kalibr-armed ships contribute to the expansion of the Navy capabilities
- Tsirkon mentioned as explicitly ship-based system, final stages of state trials
- 70+% of Air-Space Forces Air Defense rgts re-armed w/ S-400

2/

Patrushev held talks with Sullivan in Geneva today. "Important step towards Presidential Summit". Fun fact: Yang Jiechi is in Moscow for the 16th round of RU-CN "Strategic Security" talks tomorrow. tass.ru/politika/11451…

Unbelievable, we have #NewSTART figures on the MFA website: mid.ru/web/guest/maps…

...as well as traditional concerns on 56 Trident-II launch tubes, 41 'non-nuclear' B-52H heavy bombers and 4 MM-III "training silos". So +101 deployed and non-deployed launchers. I hope that over the next five years we'll see such releases on a regular basis, and those will become more Russia-focused.