Source of this is a report released today by Academy of Medical Science: Preparing for a challenging winter 2019/20.
Sobering reading and a realistic assessment IMHO.
Recovery planning taking place now must incorporate the v real likelihood of a COVID19 + Flu wave in the winter.
Sobering reading and a realistic assessment IMHO.
Recovery planning taking place now must incorporate the v real likelihood of a COVID19 + Flu wave in the winter.
They identify 4 challenges:
1. Large resurgence of COVID-19 nationally, + local/regional epidemics. Peak in hospital admissions & deaths Jan/Feb 2021, similar magnitude to 1st wave, coinciding with period of peak demand on NHS. ~119,900 deaths, over double number in 1st wave.
1. Large resurgence of COVID-19 nationally, + local/regional epidemics. Peak in hospital admissions & deaths Jan/Feb 2021, similar magnitude to 1st wave, coinciding with period of peak demand on NHS. ~119,900 deaths, over double number in 1st wave.
2. Health & social care systems disruptions due to reconfigurations to respond to & reduce transmission of COVID-19 + knock-on effect on ability of NHS to deal with non-COVID-19 care. Remobilisation of resources as per 1st wave unlikely to be possible due to winter pressures etc.
3. Backlog non-COVID-19 care following suspension of routine clinical care, likely to result in increased # poorly-managed chronic conditions or undiagnosed diseases, + surge in post-COVID-19 morbidity. Reducing backlog will be hampered by reduced operational capacity across NHS.
4. Possible flu epidemic will be additive to the challenges above. Size & severity of flu epidemic in winter difficult to estimate. Generalised increase in respiratory infections over the winter could rapidly overwhelm test and trace capacity.
Other points of note:
- Large local / regional resurgences possible.
- Outbreaks of COVID-19 in hospitals & care homes likely to become common again.
- Improved systematic surveillance systems in institutions with high risk residents urgently needed.
- Large local / regional resurgences possible.
- Outbreaks of COVID-19 in hospitals & care homes likely to become common again.
- Improved systematic surveillance systems in institutions with high risk residents urgently needed.
- Inpatient & outpatient services have to be prepared for an increase in patients with multimorbidity presenting with post-COVID19 complications.
- Increased mental health burden this winter likely.
- Increased mental health burden this winter likely.
Need a "new normal": Active containment measures, including physical distancing, good hand hygiene & wearing of #Facecoverings in shared indoor environments. Need to maximise public engagement in control measures & ensure public know how to access health services, & do so safely.
Test-Trace-Isolate will only be effective if it is carried out quickly, accurately, is acceptable to the public, & encompasses a high proportion of symptomatic cases. Speed is required to rapidly obtain test results, & to find & quarantine contacts before they become infectious.
