Detailed modeling of original Wuhan data in new paper in @nature yields a revised estimate of R0 for SARS-CoV-2 of 3.54 (95% Crl 3.40-3.67) -- on the high end of prior estimates. I had been thinking R0 is 2.6-3.0. nature.com/articles/s4158… This virus is bad. 1/ 
This figure from the early stages of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in Wuhan also shows the way the epidemic was crushed in China, as the Re (effective reproductive rate) was brought down to 1.18 by late January and then down to 0.28 by late February. 2/
Also, study estimates rate of un-ascertained (eg, asymptomatic) cases in Wuhan (previously estimated using travel data as ppl exported cases to the world). Undercount was dramatic; perhaps 16% of cases were actually detected (range 8-23%), despite strong surveillance in Wuhan. 3/
We still need more & better serological studies, & better surveillance systems, to understand rate of asymptomatic infection w SARS-CoV-2. This late in epidemic, which will last years, there is still much to learn. High asymptomatic rate & high R0 make this a truly bad germ. 4/
