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Our election model today versus at this point in 2016:

National polling average: Biden +10 (Clinton +4)

MN: +11 (+6)
MI: +9 (+7)
PA: +8 (+2)
WI: +7 (+7)
NH: +7 (+2)
FL: +6 (+0)
NC: +3 (-2)
AZ: +3 (-5)
OH: +2 (+1)
GA: +1 (-5)
IA: -0 (+2)
TX: -2 (-12)

projects.economist.com/us-2020-foreca…
Projected electoral college outcome on election day: Biden 356 (Clinton 296)
Probability of winning the electoral college: 92% Biden (66% Clinton)
Probability of winning the popular vote: 99% Biden (78% Clinton)
2016 was a good reminder for pundits and analysts alike that data aren't gospel and unlikely things can happen, but Trump's deficit in 2020 is much bigger than his deficit last time.
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
Why are polls sponsored by One America News some of Trump's best? I spoke to Gravis Marketing, their pollster, who said that OAN has only been releasing the polls Gravis sent them that turned out best for Trump. (Gravis says they have since told OAN to "cut it out.")
This is why you shouldn't trust polls that come from obviously biased media organizations (and why we don't include them in our models).
A bit of clarification here from Gravis: They say the problem was limited to one poll out of Florida from last month, and they haven't had issues anymore. Echoes this story from @pbump
washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/…
Read 4 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
Here's just a straight average of national polls in years with incumbent presidents on the ballot. President Trump's numbers are worse than Jimmy Carter's at this point during the 1980 presidential campaign, nearly as bad as Gerald Ford's in 76. Not exactly in great company...
Here's the same graph but for the full election year and only since 1980. You can see that game-changing events DO happen between now and the election, but they're very rare.
3/3 And if you limit the graph to just the polarized era, you can see that Trump's numbers are pretty unprecedented.

Since 2000, no candidate has ever come back from this type of position in the public polls.
Read 3 tweets
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G. Elliott Morris
@gelliottmorris
Given Biden is up 8 nationally, the only way you can come up w/ a prediction for the election that doesn’t have him favored ~80%+ of the time is to ignore polls or to analyze them incorrectly. Maybe they’ll be wrong, but they’ve been pretty accurate in the past & are a good bet.
Our forecast is maybe even a bit NICE to Trump right now, given that the model thinks Biden will lose ground b/t now and Nov and constrains the possible outcomes to a reasonable range for the polarized era. If we just use polls, his win % could be 90%+.

projects.economist.com/us-2020-foreca…
Polls in 2016 showed that a modest polling error in Trump’s favor could result in his winning the electoral college. That’s what happened! Now, polls show that you’d need a polling error bigger than those in 80-90% of past elections!
Read 8 tweets

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