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With the Senate GOP expected to unveil its opening proposal next week, it seems important to recall when they initially staked out their position of a scaled-back fiscal response and how much has changed since then:

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In late May, Senator McConnell said that “You could anticipate the decision being made on whether to go forward in about a month. And it will be narrowly crafted, designed to help us where we are a month from now, not where we were three months ago.”
cnb.cx/2OFmLcx
The GOP was advocating a two-step approach: aggressive re-openings which would allow for a fiscal retreat. As the President Trump in early June said, “We’re opening and we’re opening with a bang.”
Those re-openings quickly failed as infection rates spiked across the Sun-belt. The current situation is summed up in this must-read from @jimtankersely and @bencasselman:
nyti.ms/2WtoGVP
The question now: Will the Senate GOP adapt its approach to the situation today from how they assumed it would be today?
Will the new Senate GOP plan recognize that its assumption underlying the earlier McConnell call for fiscal retreat – successful re-openings – has collapsed?
Short version of our paper that makes this case:

CARES largely worked

Improvements needed to address hardship

Aggressive re-openings strategy is failing in real-time

Fiscal retreat would compound this failure

Robust fiscal package urgently needed
bit.ly/3h3wNQQ
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Chuck Marr
@ChuckCBPP
New paper w/ @dashching makes 5 points:

CARES largely worked

Improvements needed to address hardship

Aggressive re-openings strategy is failing in real-time

Fiscal retreat would compound this failure

Robust fiscal package urgently needed

bit.ly/3gGUgac
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The CARES Act largely worked. As the chart below highlights, policies such as the robust unemployment insurance helped offset the job-loss driven income reduction – a major policy success – providing a lifeline to millions of families across the country:
As the miles-long lines of people idling in cars in wait of food attest, however, the policy response to date has shortcomings and this hardship needs to be addressed when the Congress acts:

nyti.ms/3gHAwmJ
Read 9 tweets
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Chuck Marr
@ChuckCBPP
@jacsamoby, Kathleen Bryant, and I put out a paper today framed by two points: much of the income of very wealthy people does not show up on their tax returns and often enjoys special tax breaks when it does bit.ly/2qKpqJ3

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@jacsamoby Because of the wealth tax proposals, these issues are getting lots of attention. The piece I think is getting too little attention is how relatively little personal income tax many wealthy people pay, i.e. the current system is not working. A couple of examples:
@jacsamoby First, the man behind the Buffett Rule, which misleadingly only looks at the rate differential between Mr. Buffett and his secretary. The rule ignores most of his income.
Read 8 tweets
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Chuck Marr
@ChuckCBPP
On Friday the House is expected to vote on the GOP’s 2.0 tax plan which doubles down on the 2017 tax law’s flaws: tilted in favor of top 1%, loses large revenue right when youngest baby boomers become SS-eligible, and invites tax games. Charts to follow.
The House GOP’s 2.0 tax plan ignores the decades’ long stagnation of working class wages and the substantial upward shift in income:
The House GOP’s 2.0 tax plan exacerbates this upward income shift as it delivers roughly double the income gain to the top 1% than it does for the bottom 60%:
Read 10 tweets

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