The enhanced unemployment benefits are critical to the economy continuing to recover. They can be changed or replaced, but they can’t be allowed to expire at the end of July. As one of the nation’s top employment analysts shows, they are *not* inhibiting hiring. 1/7
It isn’t only about the crisis it would cause for 18 million American households in every state, both Red and Blue. It would also cause all sorts of massive follow on issues for many, many other households. 2/7
Today we talked to a client who owns lower-middle income apartment complexes. To his surprise he’s been getting nearly full rental payments each month since the pandemic started. 3/7
What happens if enhanced unemployment benefits end and his unemployed tenants see their income drop 70%? How far will rent collection drop? How many apartment owners won’t be able to stay current on their mortgages? 4/7
Remember most of the unemployed don’t have jobs because the government ordered their company to close and made it illegal to operate. These are not “bad businesses” and the laid off employees are certainly not asking for a “hand out”. 5/7
The government has done the right thing in ordering closures. But this is like “eminent domain” where private assets are claimed for public benefit and *the affected private citizens are compensated for their loss*. 6/7
The enhanced unemployment benefits are not welfare. They are an incredibly smart economic recovery plan that the government should be roundly applauded for approving them so quickly at the beginning of the crisis. But the economy still needs material, ongoing support. 7/7
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The US economy right now is running at just about the most perfect economic dynamics you could imagine. When people talk about a "Goldilocks Economy" - "not too hot and not too cold" - what we have right now is what they are talking about.
Consider... 🧵
Core PCE inflation, the inflation rate economists view as most accurate and useful to understanding inflation dynamics, has now been running for 6 months at 2.0%. The 3 month and 1 month rate is also ~2%. Right on target.
Job growth has averaged 190k over 6 months, 200k over 3 months and 200k in the most recent month. We need 100k jobs a month to absorb population growth. So we are drawing more people into the workforce. We have been at higher employment-to-population rates in the past.
1/x Some people were surprised to hear Buffett say yesterday that Apple was a better business than anything else Berkshire owns. But it was back in 2017 that he declared Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Facebook “ideal businesses.”
2/x The day after the 2017 meeting he went on CNBC and told @BeckyQuick that he felt investors hadn’t paid attention to what he had said.
3/x “I did mention one thing at the meeting, which I don’t think people appreciated at all… So you have close to 10% of the market value perhaps of the United States in five extremely good businesses that essentially take no capital. Now that was not the case in the past.”
1/8 Everyone is waiting for a recession. But equity investors need to realize the corporate earnings recession started six months ago. This may help explain the surprising strength of the market.
2/8 4Q22 S&P 500 earnings were -5% and 1Q23 is tracking towards -7%. But inflation in those quarters was +7% and +6%. To make these earnings declines comparable to those in the past, we can adjust them for 2% inflation rate.
3/8 Removing the "excess" inflation leads to adjusted earnings declines in 4Q22 of -10% & 1Q23 of -11%. Mild recessions when unemployment increases by less than 3%, are more common than severe recessions. And mild recessions typically have 20%-30% declines, like we got last year.
12/20 Parking lots didn’t present any challenges, but as the rider I was aware that close maneuvering and people walking around made these areas ripe for small accidents.
1/20 My driver on a recent morning spin around the suburbs of Phoenix was none other than Google’s Waymo self driving taxi service, which has been operating for over a year giving paid rides to the public. This is a thread describing my experience. $GOOGL
2/20 Pick up in a parking lot went smoothly with the car stopping in a safe area and waiting for me to get in.
3/20 Parking lots turned out to be more challenging than you might expect, with people ignoring any rules and wandering in front of the car. But the Waymo handled it all smoothly.
1/25 You can’t predict the economy, but understanding the macro context is critically important for bottom up stock pickers. Whether you like it or not your company specific outlook includes a ton of implicit macro assumptions.
The current macro situation demands your attention.
2/25 A lot of company level forecasts are just a form of trend analysis. Most macro trends are usually long duration and slow moving, so you just need a sense of whether macro drivers are above/below mid cycle and how soon/much they might mean revert.
3/25 In a typical cycle, while there are early, mid, and late cycle companies (those that thrive best at various points), all companies are operating within a relatively homogeneous economic context.