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I expect that the longer this pandemic lasts the clearer it will become that ‘protecting lives’ and ‘protecting the economy’ are not alternatives.

Those countries that do best in protecting lives will do best in protecting their economy.
The latest Google mobility data is some early evidence for this prediction already.

Countries with more successful responses are now pretty much back to pre-pandemic levels in terms of visitors to retail and recreation sites.

Countries that were not successful are not.
Source: At the bottom of our policy response page you find the Google Mobility data ourworldindata.org/policy-respons…
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Max Roser
@MaxCRoser
If an increase in testing means that you find more and more cases then your country is not testing enough.
Some parts of the US show what successful testing looks like.

• New York increased testing a lot (blue bars), but at the same time saw the number of cases (yellow bars) fall.

• Or summarized in one metric: the positive rate of tests declined.

[source forward.ny.gov/percentage-pos…]
But the US as a whole is going the other direction.

The rate of positive tests is now at 8.7%.

[at the source you can compare the US with other countries ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…]
Read 3 tweets
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Max Roser
@MaxCRoser
What share of Spain’s population has antibodies for the new coronavirus?

Even in Spain – one of the very worst-hit countries so far – only 5% have antibodies.

The big (sample 61k) serological study of Spain is now published in The Lancet thelancet.com/journals/lance…
The fact that 95% of the Spanish population do not have antibodies is very bad news for the hope to reach herd immunity any time soon.

Or as the authors put it:
The study also confirms again why it is so difficult to fight COVID-19: The authors found that around a third of seropositive participants were asymptomatic.

This meant hundred thousands of people who spread the virus without knowing.
Read 4 tweets
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Max Roser
@MaxCRoser
I wish more people would understand that we do not have to chose between saving the economy *or* protecting the health of the population.

It’s not either/or. The goals are aligned: only if we protect people’s health can we get the economy back.
My prediction is that at the end of the pandemic we will see that those countries that suffered the worst health impact will have also suffered the hardest economic impact. And the other way around.
There is evidence that this was likely also the case more than a century ago in the influenza pandemic of 1918 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

And back then we did not have today's economy in which we so strongly rely on each other.
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