Studying Lincoln, there’s much evidence that he adopted antislavery views from his political hero, Henry Clay. Lincoln didn’t have much personal experience, so he followed what we call an opinion leader. This is such a powerful force in politics.
We can see it in our own time. In 2012, when Obama announced suppprt for gay marriage, analysts asked if he would turn away black voters who opppsed it. He didn’t; he was an opinion leader. Over time, black support for gay marriage grew.
It doesn’t always work this way. George H.W. Bush approved a tax increase after promising not to, and never brought around all the members of his coalition. But in partisan times there is a reflexive tendency to stick with the leader you’ve already chosen.
This is all meaningful now when there are millions of voters who love Trump and are loyal to him. It’s reasonable to think that if he changed his position on any number of things - the pandemic, or even core issues like race and immigration - much of his base might follow him.
Indeed he has somewhat flip-flopped on big issues, for example denouncing NAFTA and then replacing it with a similar, if updated, agreement. Didn’t cost him core suppprt.
Trump is seen as constantly playing to his base, as if he is captive to them. This may be true to an extent. But history suggests he doesn’t necessarily have to. It’s at least as likely that on contentious subjects like race he is asserting what he believes.
