1/ Who's switched in the US electorate since 2016? Short thread.
Here's the change in @YouGov polls.
Biggest social group shifts? Hispanics fall (-8).
Trump consolidates GOP base (84>91%).
Good news for Trump?
But Trump's support among Independents falls 4%...
Here's the change in @YouGov polls.
Biggest social group shifts? Hispanics fall (-8).
Trump consolidates GOP base (84>91%).
Good news for Trump?
But Trump's support among Independents falls 4%...
2/ And compared with 2016, Biden broadens the Dem coalition by picking up Independents (+8) and Moderates (+6)...
3/ Compositional effects are critical (based on actual vote in 2016 and registered voters July 2020).
% of GOP in electorate shrinks (-6%)
And % of Conservatives also falls (-6%), as more Americans see themselves as liberal (+7).
(COVID-19 effect or Trump effects or both?)
% of GOP in electorate shrinks (-6%)
And % of Conservatives also falls (-6%), as more Americans see themselves as liberal (+7).
(COVID-19 effect or Trump effects or both?)
4/ To summarize, here's the swing of the 2-pty vote.
Key lessons?
(i) Trump consolidated hold over GOP base - but with shrinking size of party identifiers and cons.
(ii) Biden expands Dem coalition by appeal to moderates/Hisp.
(iii) If reg voters turnout, Biden wins.
Key lessons?
(i) Trump consolidated hold over GOP base - but with shrinking size of party identifiers and cons.
(ii) Biden expands Dem coalition by appeal to moderates/Hisp.
(iii) If reg voters turnout, Biden wins.
5/ Notes:
2016 'Who did you vote for in the election for president?' Inc others, so not 100%
2020: 'If an election were held now, would you vote for Joe Biden or Donald Trump..?' Inc others
Thanks -The Economist/YouGov
today.yougov.com/topics/economi…
2016 'Who did you vote for in the election for president?' Inc others, so not 100%
2020: 'If an election were held now, would you vote for Joe Biden or Donald Trump..?' Inc others
Thanks -The Economist/YouGov
today.yougov.com/topics/economi…
