Thread by @FPLTalismen

🧐 The FPL Talismen GW38+ Free Hit Guide 🧐

In this thread we'll be breaking down who we will be favouring or potentially avoiding for our GW38+ FH.

Hopefully you enjoy, all follows and RTs would be massively appreciated as a new FPL account!

#FPL

🧤 The Keeper Selection 🧤

Pope (5.1m) v Martinez (4.3m)

At this point it seems the two main options in goal for GW38+ are Martinez (4.4m) and Pope (5.1m)

Martinez is a lot cheaper but statistically he’s still a very viable option. 4.3 points per game compared to 4.6 for Pope represents good value considering Ederson's average is 3.6

19 saves in 3 games v LEI, TOT and LIV and a CS v MCI in the FA Cup reflects a keeper who is in top form.

His GW38+ opposition Watford also have a poor goalscoring record away from home. Their 12 away goals ranks them 19th in the league, only Norwich’s 7 goals is worse.

Rivalling Martinez is Pope, the highest scoring keeper in FPL and an extremely strong candidate for any GW38+ FH team.

He leads the league in clean sheets (15) and his 23 bonus points eclipses the next best in the league which stands at 17 by Vicente Guaita

With the Golden Glove award for Pope in sight, Burnley will be doing all they can to shut out a Brighton side who have the lowest conversion rate of big chances in the league.

Both keepers represent good options for GW38+, both look like they could grab themselves clean sheets.

The 0.7m saved by picking Martinez is enticing, but Pope’s ability to gain bonus points could make him the higher scoring pick.

Personally, I will opt for Martinez. With Burnley’s budget back four nailed on, I think that’s where I will look to capitalise on their strong defence.

🛡️ The Defensive Picks 🛡️

The consensus amongst FHers is to opt for a 3 at the back for GW38+ so who should you be favouring or avoiding?

There is a small selection of ‘safe’ fixtures for clean sheets in GW38+

These are defenders from LIV v new (A), MCI v nor (H), BUR v bha (H)

Of these options most are avoiding MCI assets. The midfield and attack options have a far higher ceiling compared to their defenders.

One of the options that I’ve been looking at for my FH has been Digne

Digne (5.9m) is a deceptive option. Brilliant delivery from set pieces and open play.

8 assists leads all non-LIV defenders this year and he has the joint-most bonus points (16) amongst non-LIV defenders too

His fixture v BOU (H) looks favourable, but the Cherries have been increasingly plucky in the last couple GWs.

They’ve scored three goals in their last two away games v MUN and MCI and will probably have everything to play for on the final day.

Meanwhile Everton have kept one clean sheet in their last seven home games. They also rank bottom in set-piece goals at home in the PL this year, only scoring once from set plays, so Digne's set pieces aren't much of a bonus

Digne could well return, but I prefer other options.

TAA and Robbo are one of the options I prefer.

NEW (A) who have a defensive injury crisis, nothing to play for and have only scored 19 home goals all season (only CRY and SOT have less) so this fixture looks good for one or both of TAA (7.7m) and Robbo (7.0m)

They lead all defenders in the league in assists and bonus points, they both take corners and TAA has scored from free kicks this year.

Worth mentioning that Robbo has looked the sharper of the two since the restart, creating chances more frequently and outscoring TAA 34 to 30.

With such high ceilings and influence on every game they feature in, it would be criminal not to own at least one of Liverpool's full backs, despite their recent defensive frailties. If you have the budget, I’d argue getting both in for GW38+

But what about Burnley's defence?

As mentioned in the goalkeeper section of this guide, Burnley’s defence looks a great way to go.

Their back four is set in stone it seems with Bardsley (4.4m) and Pieters (4.3m) at full back and centre halves Tarkowski (5.4m) and Long (4.3m) in front of FPL favourite Nick Pope

It's very hard to look past doubling up on Burnley's defence

Brighton have scored only 7 goals from open play away from home, the same amount as they’ve scored from set-pieces away from the AMEX.

Burnley, however, have conceded a joint league-low of 2 set piece goals at home.

If you can afford Tarkowski then try and fit him in. He has 2G 3A and 14 bonus points, but I’d also suggest getting Pieters.

He’s a great an enabler but with 4 assists and 10 bonus points he would be my recommendation to compliment one of your other BUR defensive assets.

Overall I would recommend doubling up on at least one sides defenders. It’s risky but if the fixtures are favourable then it’s almost riskier to require 4 CS from 4 different clubs. There are some other useful differential picks out there but these were our preferred FH options.

🔥Midfield Selection 🔥

oMan City Midfielders 🔵
oPremium (9.0m+) 💰💰💰
oMid-range (6.5m – 9.0m) 💰
oBudget (4.0m - 6.5m) 🪙

🔵 Man City Midfielders 🔵

On paper, this Norwich game is the ideal fixture for Man City and Dilva’s PL send-off should be a real party with several goals from several City attacking assets – or so we hope.

The bigger challenge for FHers is winning Pep Roulette...

If we can get reliable City news (we miss you @FPLRockstar) then that will ultimately dictate your City asset selection.

With CL on their horizon expect some early subs by Pep but for now, here’s the breakdown of City’s big hitters.

Sterling (11.9m) is the most expensive of City’s midfielders which could price him out of some FH squads. 8 GWs with double-digit point hauls, including two 20+ point GWs makes him a very attractive option.

But the risk factor with Sterling is his inconsistency in front of goal

17 goals this season is no mean feat, but 17 big chances missed (7th worse in the PL) is worrying.

3G and 4A in 5 apps vs NOR is exciting and the amount of chances City will create should offset the risk of him blanking, but some may avoid him and pick a cheaper City option.

KDB (10.7m) is the 2nd most valuable FPL option this season in terms of total points accumulated. He leads the PL assists charts, including 11A in 15 starts at home this season.

He also leads the PL in key passes at home games with 73. 2nd place has 55.

What more needs to be said about KDB? Even if he’s been drifting wide and dropping deeper into midfield in recent games, he still feels like a must-have.

He's currently on pens and averages over 7.6 points per home game. I suggest he’s the player you should prioritise for MCI.

David Silva (7.4m) is playing his final PL game for City so you would have to assume that he starts this one.

10 goals involvements in 15 home games this season and 30 points across his last 2 home fixtures suggests great value, especially for a FH squad.

Chatter surrounding him potentially taking a penalty if given the chance is enough to tempt me, in conjunction with his effortless ability to break down any low block defence, especially one as poor as Norwich’s.

Dilva also shines against the league’s worst teams.

This season v teams in the relegation zone he averages 7.6pts (11pts at the Etihad). He’s great value and not just a sentimental signing either.

In my current FH draft I've got Silva and KDB from City's midfield, but let's not look past the rest of their midfield talent.

Mahrez (8.6m), Bernardo Silva (7.6m) and Foden (5.5m) make up the rest of City's viable assets.

Mahrez has been phenomenal this season with 10G and 13A, far more than Bilva’s 6G and 7A.

He's been MCI's FPL dark horse and has far more points than Dilva, so why do I want Dilva?

What puts me off Mahrez for a FH is that Dilva has the same amount of goal involvements at home as him, he’s 1.2m cheaper, maybe on pens, arguably in better form and less likely to be subbed for the CL.

Meanwhile, currently, I don’t think I will use for Bilva or Foden for my FH.

Foden has been excellent at times and as a budget player he’s a great pick. Lack of regular, consistent minutes seems to be hampering his form though.

7 points across his last 4 GWs is not a reflection of his talent, but it does put me off.

Also, 125 mins per goal involvement compared to 81 for Mahrez and 96 for Dilva is enough for me opt for another MCI asset

Bilva, like all City’s midfielders, could put up double-figures for the 4th time this season v NOR and at 0.2% Top 10k ownership he's a bit of a punt.

Bilva did score 19pts in the 8-0 v WAT (H), only NOR have a worse away record than WAT, so there’s potential there, although I won’t be bringing him in.

Depending on if you use Jesus, I would at least double up on City’s midfield assets, maybe triple up if you are running 5 mids

I imagine KDB and Dilva will be the most popular picks - it's not hard to see why - but frankly most City midfielders look good for big returns especially if they start.

But what about your premium midfield picks, who should you shell out the big money for...?

(End of Part 1)

Premium Midfielders (9.0m+) 💰💰💰

Getting your premium midfield selections right is essential for any successful FH.

There are six premium midfielders based on our price bracket, two of which, KDB and Sterling, have been covered in our Man City selection guide (see above)

Luckily, the remaining four midfielders also have decent fixtures in which you could reasonably expect them to amass some hefty points.

Depending on funds and formations, most will restrict themselves to 3 or 4 premium options for their FH squads, so who should you be targeting?

Salah (12.5m) looks nailed on in almost every FH draft I’ve seen and for good reason.

He’s the highest scoring player in FPL this year (so far) and he has a very promising fixture against an injury-riddled Newcastle defence, who I expect will be facing Liverpool's strongest XI.

Salah himself, now out of the Golden Boot race, only has 4 away PL goals this season, 11 less than at Anfield.

His lower than expected away goals are remedied by his 6 away assists this season, only KDB has more. He also has 4G and 2A in 6 apps v NEW which should give FHers hope

But are FHers overlooking Mane?

The away record of Mane (12.2m) has been impressive this season as he’s scored 6 goals and assisted a further 3.

It shouldn't be forgotten that Mane also achieved his season’s best 15pts in the reverse fixture v NEW back in September.

However, Salah’s average 4.1 shots per away game massively overshadows Mane’s 2.4, so it would appear Mane’s far more clinical than Salah away from home, although the Egyptian will more likely get more shots off.

The choice between the two is a bit of a toss-up performance wise.

This season, Salah has 84pts away from home compared to Mane’s 76pts.

But Mane looked sharper than Salah in their last game v ARS, although we know Salah always has the potential to score very highly.

As it stands in GW37+, Salah’s Top 10k ownership is 43%, Mane’s is 9%.

That big ownership swing really increases the risk/reward stakes if you select the highest returner of one of these two LIV assets.

But whilst Liverpool could put five past a weakened NEW side, NEW have the 2nd best home defence of teams outside the top 6 - behind SHU

They've also conceded less goals from open play (11) than SHU (12), so whilst owning both Mane and Salah is tempting, I think even if you have a midfield of 5, you should double/triple up on cheaper MCI assets.

These two aren't the only viable premium midfield options though...

Son's timely return to form is certainly worth considering

Averaging 9pts across the last 3 GWs makes Son (9.7m) a worthy FH option

Against Leicester he looked sharp on the counter and with an in-form Kane in front of him, Spurs look good for goals against a struggling CRY side

2 goals and a 16pt haul v CRY earlier in the year suggests Son has the beating of a CRY defence that has shipped 17 goals in 7 games since the restart.

But the Eagles’ home defensive record across the season has been good though, despite their dreadful form.

In 12 of their 18 home games this season, CRY have either kept a clean sheet or only conceded one goal.

However, bar Wolves, every Top 6 side has scored 2+ goals at Selhurst Park this season and CRY are in total free-fall.

Only BOU and NOR have worse records since the restart.

Now is the perfect time for Son to play CRY and I think at 12% Top 10k ownership he could go under the radar with FHers prioritising City assets and other premium midfielders

Son could really return in a big way, much like our final midfielder has consistently done since January

Bruno Fernandes (9.1m) has arguably been the league's best player since the restart, averaging almost 10 points per game.

He has orchestrated the attack of the top side in the PL form table and has contributed towards 10 of United's last 19 goals in the league.

More so than other premium midfielders, Fernandes’ haul in GW38+ will depend on the quality of performances by Rashford, Greenwood and Martial.

But as the Portuguese star leads the league in assists per 90mins (0.6) that clearly hasn’t been an issue so far.

Much like KDB, it’s a case of leave him out your FH side at your peril, because although United’s recent fixtures have been kind, we know he is very capable of returning multiple times v Leicester (A)

A side who have been struggling with injuries, suspensions and form as of late

On paper the fixture v LEI is off-putting given the league table and the fixture’s significance for both clubs, but this isn’t the same LEI side that sat in 2nd place for large parts of the season.

Only CRY and the current bottom four sides have less points since the restart.

Personally, I'm unsure if I can risk leaving Fernandes out of my FH squad.

His consistency, big return potential and continual influence when United have the ball makes him such a great option.

I think GW38+ is a perfect time to FH because of these premium midfielders' fixtures

Right now, I have a Fernandes, Salah, KDB and Dilva in a 4-man midfield, but I am seriously toying with bringing in Son.

But there are plenty of exciting cheaper and budget midfield options that GW38+ FHers shouldn't ignore if they want to climb the rankings...

(End of Part 2)

💰 Mid-range Midfielders (6.5m - 9.0m)💰

These midfielders play a crucial role in any FH side as they are not only influential players for their team, but they also offer FHers viable alternatives to popular premium options for far less money

Let's have a look at the options...

Martial (8.5m) has been so impressive since the restart and right up there in performances with anyone in the league.

He has the same amount of post-restart points as Fernandes (57) and his prolific form in front of goal has made him almost indispensable in recent weeks.

After Leicester conceded 3 vs Spurs in GW37, the attraction towards Martial as a FH selection has intensified

Ageing CBs Evans, Bennett and Morgan could really struggle with Martial’s pace and movement on the counter, a style of play both United and Martial are proficient in.

The last 6 goals from open play that LEI have conceded have been scored by strikers, which points to another potential weakness for Martial to exploit.

Let’s also not forget that the last time Martial faced a 3 CB formation he bagged a hat trick and 21 points v SHU (H).

Do make note of Leicester’s four consecutive home clean sheets though, it may not necessarily be be a rout for United.

Another slightly worrying aspect to Martial's game, that FHers should acknowledge, is his exceptional home form but less than impressive away form.

The Frenchman boasts 11G, 4A in 15 apps at home at an average of 7.9 point per game with only 4 blanks.

In away games, Martial has 6G, 1A in 15 apps accumulating roughly 4.6 points per game. He’s also blanked more times than he’s returned.

You would generally expect lower returns from assets playing away from home, but this level of inconsistency is just enough to put me off him as he plays away in GW38+

17 goals this season as an OOP FPL asset remains a fantastic return and he’s still a tasty option for FHers.

Another OOP midfielder that has attracted some FH interest is Richarlison (8.2m) who has 13G and 5A to his name this season.

He’s the highest scoring midfield option for any player outside of the current top 7 sides by 24 points and he’s already had his best FPL campaign ever.

But as a frustrated former owner of Richarlison I won’t be bringing him in for my FH side, and here’s why.

Firstly he’s 8.2m, which is a decent chunk of my FH budget, so I have to be sure that he has reliably high-scoring potential, which I’m unsure he does.

In 35 starts he has only got double attacking returns twice. Conversely, Antonio, another OOP option for 1.2m less, has achieved that feat on 3 times in the last 9 GWs.

So there’s some doubt in my mind whether he’s worth shelling out 8.2m for.

Secondly, I’m really not impressed with Everton’s attacking ability.

They’ve only scored 6 times in their last 8 matches. Antonio’s West Ham have scored twice that many and play a team with a worse defensive record than BOU.

I imagine Richarlison will make this prediction look a bit silly, but I’m willing to take that risk.

With the likes of Mahrez, Martial and Dilva all available to me as FHer, for a similar price, I can’t find a place for Richarlison in my side.

Pulisic (7.4m) is an awkward FH selection for GW38+, as he faces a defensively stable Wolves side who find themselves unbeaten in their last 3.

Considering Pulisic has only blanked once in 7 post-restart games (at time of writing) he definitely shouldn’t be disregarded.

Chelsea ran out 5-2 winners in the reverse fixture, and despite a more resolute WOL defence since that game, the Midlands outfit have only won once in their last 8 games v top-half sides

Pulisic does have some off-putting stats for home performances in his debut season though...

The American grabs a goal every 396 minutes at Stamford Bridge, compared to a goal every 137.7 minutes in away games.

This is somewhat typical of a CHE side who have only scored 44% of their total goals this season at home - only SOU have a lower percentage (38%).

Watch out for a potential early substitution to save him for the FA Cup final, but also watch out for his performance v LIV (A) tonight before bringing him in.

Much like Richarlison, I think the quality of other midfield options is enough for me to avoid Pulisic for my FH squad.

However, I am very tempted by Antonio (7.0m) whose 54pts in the last 5 GWs is testament to his unbelievable form.

For reference, that’s the same amount of points as Mane and Pulisic’s last 5 GWs combined.

Incredibly, Antonio also has more xG since the restart than Everton.

His GW38+ fixture v AVL (H) will represent a slightly sterner defensive test than NOR did for Antonio. Let’s not expect another 4 goals.

In their last 7 games v bottom-half clubs AVL have only conceded 8 goals, but they do have the 19th ranked away defence in the league.

Interestingly, WHU have scored more home goals (29) than Chelsea (28), Wolves (25) and 12 other PL sides.

So as a cheaper OOP option and with the excellent form of his midfielders, especially Bowen, behind him, I believe Antonio could well be a top pick for GW38+ FHers.

🪙 Budget Midfielders (4.0m - 6.5m) 🪙

Don't overlook these picks!

These budget options should be of interest to anyone whose pinching pennies, looking for a 1st sub option (should the worst happen) or searching for an obscure differential to chase down your ML rival.

A prime example of a potentially overlooked asset is Bowen (6.4m) who looks to be another nice WHU option after registering 4 assists in his last 5 games - including 3 in his last 3 home fixtures.

He has also scored twice in 4 games v Villa in the Championship whilst at Hull.

Villa themselves have also conceded 6 goals by wingers in their last 9 games and are yet to keep an away clean sheet all season.

Bowen’s upturn in form coincides with Antonio finding his stride too and at 0.3% ownership I think Bowen could be a fantastic differential in GW38+

Grealish (5.9m) in the same fixture may interest some FHers in what is a crucial game for Villa.

Their star man is only second to KDB in the league for chances created this season and will look to capitalise on the 3rd worse home defence in the top flight.

Do note that no team has conceded more penalties at home this season than West Ham (4).

With Grealish looking busy v ARS last night, being the most fouled player in the league and potentially on penalties himself, GW38+ could spell the end of 11 GWs without an attacking return.

Podence (4.9m) is coming off the back of his first PL goal in GW37+, after getting a cheeky s/o from the FPL Talismen after GW36+.

But prior to Monday night he had been performing well in his last few games he’s started for Wolves, including an assist in a MOTM display v EVE (H)

He’s against a Chelsea side who have only kept one home CS against top half sides this year.

Meanwhile Wolves will be hoping continue their good form and add to their 25 away goals this year, the same figure as Man United.

With Podence being priced so cheaply and playing regularly for an in-form side, if you do have excess funds then he may well be worth a 1st sub punt, even if you can’t slot him in to your starting XI.

But there is an even cheaper budget option worth looking at...

Arsenal's Saka (4.7m) has been a welcome budget midfielder throughout this FPL season and in the 2nd half of this season especially.

His 242 mins per goal involvement is competitve and better than players such as Mount (248 mins) and Lucas Moura (270 mins).

There are doubts as to whether he starts, but if he does there’s a decent chance he could return v WAT (H) who are under pressure to stay up and are conceding an average of 2.13 goals per game in their last 8.

Like Podence, he's very cheap, low-risk and is prime 1st sub fodder.

Of course, we can’t cover every midfielder and all these midfield picks are just us explaining our opinion, it's not to say they will or won't do well

The stats that we've based our evaluations off could well be turned upside down given the typical craziness that occurs in GW38.

Our final addition to the thread will be the forward selections which can make or break any FH, so we’ll try to help navigate you through some important but equally exciting decisions.

(End of the Midfielders Selection section)

⚽️ The Forward Selections ⚽️

In the final section of the thread we'll break down our preferred forward options for GW38+ and try and guide those of you who remain undecided on who you want leading the line in your FH squads.

In the wake of braces in consecutive fixtures, Kane (10.9m) looks to be a stalwart in many GW38+ FH teams and why wouldn't he be?

In his last two games vs NEW (A) and LEI (H) he’s amassed a total of 25pts, managed 6 shots and scored with all 4 of his shots on target

Surprisingly, Kane’s combined xG stands at only 1 goal in the past two games, despite netting 4 times.

Vardy and Aguero (0.7) are the only FPL strikers that can say they have more away goals per game than Kane (0.6) this season, after his solid return of 8 goals in 13 away apps.

Tottenham's star man has undoubtedly hit form just at the wrong time for the hapless Eagles who I imagine will succumb to a Spurs side mounting a final push for 6th place.

In the Son evaluation (see ‘Premium Midfielders’ above) I detailed how out of form Palace have been.

In their last 7 fixtures they’re on the losing side of a combined scoreline which stands at 17-2.

Kane’s assist potential shouldn’t be underestimated either with both Lucas and Son's pace on the counter, Kane has registered 6 key passes across the past 3 GWs.

Kane will feature in both of our FH sides. He has captaincy potential due to his form and a very favourable fixture.

There are few reasons for not owning him if you’re FHing this week and we both recommend budgeting your squad to cater for a premium option like Kane.

Another premium option for FHers is Aubameyang (10.9m), a pick which makes a whole lot of sense on paper, but is bringing him in too risky?

20G and 4A in the midst of a turbulent Arsenal season is beyond commendable, especially when you see that his xG tally only stands at 15.

The notable risks with Aubameyang is that, firstly, Arsenal have an FA Cup final coming up and Arteta will take no chances on his star striker.

A win v CHE will be their only chance to play European football, so I don’t expect Aubameyang to play any more than 75 mins v WAT (H).

The second risk is Arsenal’s unpredictable recent form and how that may affect Auba's potential returns.

A 4-1 aggregate win over MCI and LIV in the space of a few days was followed up by a wholly disappointing 1-0 loss to AVL (A) and Auba’s third consecutive blank GW.

WAT (H) looks like an inviting fixture but relying on a strong Arsenal showing when they have one eye on a cup final is fraught with danger.

And yet I think Auba is a top pick for GW38+. I know Watford’s PL lives are on the line but I can’t look past their recent defensive woes.

No Watford CS in 9 games and 6 goals conceded in their last 2 away games makes positive reading for Auba owners.

Watford have conceded more goals from open play in away games this year than Norwich and in 9 games away from home against top half sides, they’ve shipped 23 goals.

Auba claimed 13pts after he netted twice v WAT earlier in the season, that makes it 4G and 1A in 4 apps vs the Hornets.

He also has 6G and 1A in his last 5 home starts in the PL. 47 points (inc. 10 bonus points) across those 5 starts makes him a worthy captaincy candidate too.

It’s a really difficult decision to back Auba and Arsenal at the best of times, but I think on balance I do want him.

1 away CS in 12 attempts for WAT and Auba’s recent home form is appealing enough for me to make room for him, although I’m still not 100% set on this pick.

I'm also unsure about Jesus (9.9m) who has been an interesting FPL asset since Aguero’s injury, but it’s impossible to predict which Jesus will turn up GW to GW.

Will you get the creative and composed Jesus that landed 14pts v BHA or will you get the Jesus that blanked v WAT?

The Brazilian leads the PL in big chances missed (24) which is concerning considering the wealth of Man City options available in the midfield for FHers to choose from.

Jesus took 24 shots in 436 mins in PL matches between GW32+ and GW37+, at roughly a shot every 18 mins.

These shooting stats should entice FHers before City’s clash v NOR, or should they?

Jesus hasn’t been nearly as clinical as other attackers in his price range, as he’s only converted 13 of his 96 efforts this season into PL goals - a 13.5% conversion rate.

For reference, Kane’s is 21.3% and Vardy’s is 26.7%.

His waywardness in front of goal is reinforced by his xG stat which stands at almost 18, five more than his actual haul of 13 goals.

Comparably, Ings has a lower xG than Jesus (15.2) but has scored 21 times prior to GW38+.

But there are certainly positive aspect to owning Jesus. One positive is knowing he will always profit from City’s relentless creation of excellent chances.

In fact, Jesus has had more shots than Sterling (96 to 94) despite playing 10 and half hours less football than him.

In GW38+ you can probably expect him to continue playing as the focal point of the PL’s top scorers (97 goals) against the PL’s worst defence (70 conceded), which is hugely attractive.

Pep Roulette, however, remains an issue after Jesus completed the full 90mins v WAT in GW37+

The last time he did this was vs SOU (A) in GW33+ and in the subsequent game he only played 60 mins vs NEW (H).

There is also the worry that with the Champions League coming up in August, that Pep might make wholesale changes and rest Jesus, although this feels unlikely.

Jesus has yo-yoed in and out of my FH drafts.

He has a high ceiling, he profits from excellent playmakers and he’s the sole striker in the most appealing fixture of GW38+.

He’s worth selecting if you want him, but I’m unsure if I do given City’s midfield.

(End of Part 1)