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Good chance deaths will increase further. But it does seem likely that the death *rate* from COVID is decreasing, which is good news, even if the number of deaths is increasing because we have so many freakin' cases.
One thing I like to look at is the lagged case fatality rate (CFR), which is the number of deaths divided by the number of cases some time ago.

Over the past week, the lagged CFR has been 1.5% using a 2-week lag. If you prefer a 3-week lag, it's 1.9%.
Of course, because of mediocre testing, we're still only catching a small-ish share of infections, by most estimates. If, per @youyanggu's model, we're catching one-fifth to one-sixth of cases, that means the *infection* fatality rate (IFR) is somewhere in the range of 0.3-0.4%.
0.3%-0.4% is still a very dangerous disease (wear a mask, please!). But, it's better than in the spring, where the weight of the evidence based on various estimates I was seeing was concentrated in the range of 0.7%-1.0% or thereabouts.
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