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So, Gravis Marketing has released 5 polls of the presidential race in the past several weeks. Three were for OAN (One America News) and three weren't. Here's what they showed:

Not for OAN
FL: Biden +10
MN: Biden +16

For OAN
NC: Trump +3
GA: Trump +3
AZ: Trump +4
I know it's just 5 polls. But the three polls for OAN are literally some of Trump's best polls during this time period and the two non-OAN polls are literally some of his worst polls. The sponsor shouldn't really have an effect on poll results like that.
That other Florida poll didn't meet our standards for inclusion (and we have inclusive standards) because of the...weirdness in how OAN disclosed the results.

But a TIE in a Gravis/OAN Florida poll vs. Biden +10 in a non-OAN Gravis poll fits the pattern.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Be careful about premature victory laps.

A lot of countries that had once seemed to have COVID under control are now having issues. Israel is the one where things have spun very out of control. Others here may be more containable.
In a slightly different category are middle-income countries like India and South Africa that initially imposed harsh lockdowns when they had low caseloads (i.e. there was no real first wave) but relaxed those lockdowns and now aren't doing all that much to fight back.
I don't mean to be a downer. But I think The Discourse might be improved by acknowledging fighting this thing requires diligence, patience, good governance, great science, and maybe a bit of luck.

And where good governance is lacking (🇺🇸), you need extra of the other qualities.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking:

Newly reported deaths
Today: 327
Yesterday: 476
One week ago (7/6): 242

Newly reported cases
T: 58K
Y: 61K
7/6: 47K

Newly reported tests
T: 721K
Y: 727K
7/6: 520K

Positive test rate
T: 8.1%
Y: 8.4%
7/6: 9.1%
This is all very bad relative to what the data looked like a few weeks ago.

It is also slightly less bad relative to some recent days.

But Mondays (which mostly reflect what happened on Sunday) are often pretty slow.

Good that the positive test rate has flattened out a bit.
Among the "terrible trio": Arizona does seem to show some flattening, which makes sense since it was the earliest of the three to spike. And positive test rates have fallen in Florida, although they're reporting *lots* of cases (and tests). Jury is still out on Texas.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I read a lot about COVID-19 and immunity and if your priors aren't something like "there's immunity in the short run and then it's complicated and uncertain in the long run" then I'd suggest you read more about it.

A lot of headlines and tweets about this subject are misleading.
Also, be wary of anecdotal stories about people getting "re-infected". Some may be true. Some may be false positives or people that were sick the whole time. COVID is weird; the immune system is weird. Things that *can* happen aren't necessarily *common*.
To illustrate the point: a prediction market estimates that 99.7% of people who had COVID will still be immune after 6 months. If that were true (have no idea) would be pretty good news but you'd ALSO expect to see reports of reinfection among the 0.3%.

metaculus.com/COVID-19/
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