Thread by @PaulAbiNasr

1/ I had promised a thread on neutrality and why i believe it is the cornerstone of any effort to rebuild the nation on a solid and sustainable footing, here we go 👇

2/ I am going to tackle it from 2 different angles, the first one would be purely tactical and is directly related to our current financial situation, while the second is much more strategic and involves a durable solution to our political problems

3/ I think that there are multiple views on how to tackle our financial meltdown, some of them complementing each others while the rest are completely incompatible. Whatever the proposal, they all agree on one matter : we need external financing to climb out of the hole.

4/ To be very pragmatic and realistic, any financing will start with the IMF -> WorldBank -> CEDRE -> GCC -> Capital Markets (after stabilization). The first 2 have a de facto US veto power, the 3rd has a European one and the 4th is, well, self-explanatory

5/ Being at extreme odds (to be diplomatic) with those parties, hardly places us on the top of their lists of partners to be helped. And while no funding will take place without the proper economic reforms, a political deal will need to be struck as well.

6/ Neutrality is the baseline along which a palatable deal can be presented to all parties. It brings the needle back to a dead middle while keeping face saving measures in place.

7/ It will help create a positive political framework in which economic negotiations can take place in good faith. It will reopen diplomatic channels long shut. Channels without which no agreement can be forged.

8/ On a more strategic level, why do we need neutrality and what exactly does it mean?
I am going to start with a proper definition, in contrast with the political class' attempt to distort it .

9/ Neutrality is not up for interpretation. It is quite simple in reality: Lebanon takes NO foreign policy position on ANY issue which has no voted consensus exceeding 66% (super majority).

10/ It also means that ALL the constituents of the country will abide by such a decision. While any party would be given the right to ask for a referendum at anytime, abiding STRICTLY by the results should not be up for negotiation.

11/ Let me put that into perspective, none of the following positions could garner super majority :
-Peace with Israel
-Animosity with GCC
-Animosity with US and EU
-Animosity with Syria and Iran
-Nationalization of Refugees
-Fighting beyond borders

12/ Now, why does a country like Lebanon need Neutrality as defined above ?
We are a multi-cultural,multi-ethnic and multi-religious country where everyone is a minority in his own right.

13/ History teaches us that whenever any party tries to swing the country in one direction an equal and opposite force will pull it back with devastating results.
No one can impose any personal preference on the other, let alone a comprehensive foreign policy

14/ So if i can't take you west and you can't take me east, what should we do ? Simply NOTHING ! Which is the basis of neutrality.
Suddenly our fragmentation becomes our strength as we can engage with all sides and even broker solutions.

15/ Let's learn from the closest successful country, that resembles us in most ways : Switzerland.

16/ After going through 500 years of being pulled apart by their more powerful neighbors preying on the diverse nature of the Swiss population, aggressive neutrality was adopted.

17/ The result was a country that went through a century of European and World wars without a scratch, even partially benefiting from them (they sold maps to the 3rd Reich and the allies).

18/ A country that has become a natural destination to warring parties looking for a neutral settings to negotiate. A country that is consistently acclaimed worldwide by the worst of foes (The US and Iran negotiate through the Swiss).

19/ But most importantly a country at ease with itself, with a sense of statehood like very few others have. The various factions,sects and segments of the population never feel anything is being imposed on them, and so their respect of each other is matchless.

20/ No one can pull Lebanon to his side of the political spectrum, with all sides pulling together the country is being torn apart.
We deserve better, we can do better. We can become the deal broker of the region instead of being the troubled child.